Would You Bet River Here For Value? And How Much? - MTT Poker Strategy

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Would You Bet River Here For Value? And How Much?

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05-29-2017 , 12:31 PM

ThoughtOuttaSeason

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 259

Just curious how others would play this spot. Any advice appreciated.

Full Ring Live Tourney
Blinds
300/600 75 ante

Fold
Fold
3rd Position Raise to 1600 (52,000 behind) pretty tight. cbets near 100%
Fold
Fold
Fold
BTN (Hero KsJs) Call (60,000 behind)
SB Fold
BB Call

FLOP (5,775 chips)
Kh9d6c
BB check, 3rd Pos bets 3,100, Hero call, BB Fold

TURN (11,975 chips)
3c
3rd Pos check, HERO raise 6,500, 3rd Pos call

RIVER ( 24,975 chips)
4c
3rd pos checks, HERO?

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05-30-2017 , 10:00 AM

Colinb7

adept

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 731

I'd check behind.

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05-30-2017 , 11:31 AM

SharkytheFish

adept

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,114

It definitely can be justified and it'l feel like missed value if you check and villain shows one of the pps in his range. Villain can have KQ here as well and you can't call a x/r otr. In practice I think I'd be happy with the size of the pot and check back.

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05-31-2017 , 10:57 PM

sippin_criss

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 11,765

Easy bet like 9k or so. You have the best hand here almost always, villain has nothing to be afraid of on the turn so no reason for him to not continue betting AK/KQ. Obviously he will have a scared KQ a small % of the time but it's so hard for guys to fold A9/TT-QQ here.

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06-01-2017 , 07:29 AM

LeaksSuck

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 1,859

I bet sth between 1/4 and 1/2 pot.

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06-01-2017 , 02:10 PM

Colin252

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 518

Checking is likely pretty BIG mistake, I'm with sippin on this. Don't let the fear of occasionally being beat stop you from winning more money.

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06-03-2017 , 03:04 PM

Velocity

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 6,026

Quote:

Originally Posted by sippin_criss

I agree with this. What's your plan to a checkraise?

I'm talking myself into folding becuase check/call turn check/raise river to turn a mediocre hand into a bluff isn't something I would give most people credit for. I would expect most sets to have check/raised the turn if they were going to check/raise, but still think we are cooked vs his range on the end if we see a c/r.

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06-03-2017 , 11:42 PM

sippin_criss

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 11,765

Quote:

Originally Posted by Velocity

Folding for sure just based on how often it's never a bluff. I'd say maybe 1/1000 guys overbluff when checkraising rivers. Usually for a guy to take that line he has to be turning showdown value into a bluff which also occurs pretty infrequently.

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06-05-2017 , 06:37 AM

LeaksSuck

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 1,859

Can 100% confirm everything sippin wrote.

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