Originally Posted by Beerocrat
I should have specified the numbers in my post are for 50/30/20 9 man
If the PT yellow line is chips, don't pay attention to it.
Actually need to know the buy-in and payouts too (guessing it's not 10% fee like the ROI simulator's default).
If you get the ROI simulator from the link above what you need to do is this:
* Set # simulations to something big like 100k or 1M.
* Set Games per sim to 1100.
* Set your buy-in and $ payouts.
* Fiddle about creating a sensible finish distribution that gives you approximately 0% Actual ROI when you click simulate results (it doesn't really matter that much what the %'s are so long as they are sensible for a real player).
* When you've done the above, look at the "All Results" values and read off the "Cum" value for 7% ROI.
This can be interpreted as "if I were a 0% ROI player, what is the chance I would run at 7% ROI or more over 1100 games?" - if it's 5% or less you can be fairly confident you are a winner at these stakes.
The ROI simulator isn't ideal though: your actual finish distribution isn't really gonna be constant over all games like it assumes and it still needs a fairly decent sample size of different sessions taken over different game conditions, giving opponent regs time to adapt to you, etc. Even with these assumptions it can still be helpful and the interpretation prolly won't be that far from the truth.