Yes i know i need 10 000 sngs to estimate my exact roi!! but i have played 1100 hyperturbos and my roi is 7%. I just wanna know the chance i am beating the limit. i have not founded any calculators ... any idea? also i have been kinda unlucky as my yellow line is much higher than my green line .. so i guess i should have won more ... also i have a question .. in sngs will the yellow line be even with the green line EV in a long run?

P.S. sorry for the question .. i know my english was bad in that ....

yellow line?

Pulling this out of my ass but theres prob like a 65% chance youre a longterm winner if youre 7% after 1100 games.

yellow line ... when i go allin there is a yellow line EV in pokertracker showing expected value of chips winnings. there is a green line which shows actual chips winnings ... as i understand that ...
65% ... almost coinflip .. so we still have no idea ....

if you are at 10% over 900 games, you are 95% to have an ROI > 0%
10% over 226 games, and you are 68% to have an ROI > 0%
5% over 878 games, and you are 68% to have an ROI > 0%

you probably have an ROI > 0%


It also sounds like your "yellow line" is showing chips, not equity, but maybe you are just not explaining it well.

If you think 2-1 is a coinflip Im gonna need to lower my prediction...

whats your yellowline at? It converges faster than greenline.

As far as I know PT hasnt a red line (Luck adjusted winnings) like HM has but only a chip based line (the yellow one OP is talking about).

What payout structure is this? I'll post how you can use the ROI simulator if you post the structure.

Juk

I should have specified the numbers in my post are for 50/30/20 9 man

If the PT yellow line is chips, don't pay attention to it.

care to post link? i've been looking for working roi simulator lately and didnt find any working link on 2+2 nor any working sng simulator via google ;p

http://www.sendspace.com/file/b3rd4o

Link might die quick as unregistered, but after the megaupload fiasco no idea what is a good host now.

Juk

Actually need to know the buy-in and payouts too (guessing it's not 10% fee like the ROI simulator's default).


If you get the ROI simulator from the link above what you need to do is this:

* Set # simulations to something big like 100k or 1M.

* Set Games per sim to 1100.

* Set your buy-in and $ payouts.

* Fiddle about creating a sensible finish distribution that gives you approximately 0% Actual ROI when you click simulate results (it doesn't really matter that much what the %'s are so long as they are sensible for a real player).

* When you've done the above, look at the "All Results" values and read off the "Cum" value for 7% ROI.

This can be interpreted as "if I were a 0% ROI player, what is the chance I would run at 7% ROI or more over 1100 games?" - if it's 5% or less you can be fairly confident you are a winner at these stakes.

The ROI simulator isn't ideal though: your actual finish distribution isn't really gonna be constant over all games like it assumes and it still needs a fairly decent sample size of different sessions taken over different game conditions, giving opponent regs time to adapt to you, etc. Even with these assumptions it can still be helpful and the interpretation prolly won't be that far from the truth.

Juk

thanks,



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played around with it some more, in around 3% simulations for this year's sample i could have run worse, so it aint that unlucky overall ;p
scary tool over large samples, scaryyyyyyyy

Ye I get an error when I try to calculate.

But still thanks for doing one.

i had an error as well, you need to delete all . and use ,

I changed , to . at first. But still get the same error with ,.