Vers presents OFFICIAL STTF MARCH THREAD-General discussion

[blackize]

Originally Posted by futuredoc85

playing style has too much of an effect on pots that are not all in before river for it to be that accurate though.

I'm pretty sure lacky is still shortstacking. In which case a very large chunk of his winnings come from AI pots

[blackize]

Originally Posted by fluorescenthippo

i cant really tell what he is trying to say but it seems like everyone is misunderstanding sngluckanalzyer. everyone always says it cant tell when you run into the tops of ranges, or loose oppenents skew the results, etc, well of course it cant thats not the point of the program. the program is to see how you run AFTER you are all in. the program is 100% perfect for cash games so it is for sngs, as long as the structure is taken into account but im pretty sure everyone is arguing about this program not be able to do more than it can without being bias, which is lol impossible. and obv i know blackize knows this, im just quoting him, we have talked about pokerev a lot.

so can bones/slim pickens or someone else fill me in on how sngluckanalzyer is flawed maybe im missing it.

I was referring only to PokerEV which is what lacky asked about and what I said holds true for PokerEV and cash games.

[microbet]

Originally Posted by kleath

I thought we were trying to drop it? Maybe no one wants to argue because its correct?

Ok, you win.

[bones]

Originally Posted by fluorescenthippo

i cant really tell what he is trying to say but it seems like everyone is misunderstanding sngluckanalzyer. everyone always says it cant tell when you run into the tops of ranges, or loose oppenents skew the results, etc, well of course it cant thats not the point of the program. the program is to see how you run AFTER you are all in. the program is 100% perfect for cash games so it is for sngs, as long as the structure is taken into account but im pretty sure everyone is arguing about this program not be able to do more than it can without being bias, which is lol impossible. and obv i know blackize knows this, im just quoting him, we have talked about pokerev a lot.

so can bones/slim pickens or someone else fill me in on how sngluckanalzyer is flawed maybe im missing it.

It only measures a very specific part of the luck involved in all-in pots.

Of the following situations, which would you consider more unlucky?

Situation A- 7 handed, midgame. You have 6bbs and shove AJ from the sb. BB calls with KTo and wins.

Situation B- 4 handed, 2 stacks have less than 2bbs each. Folded to you in the sb where you cover the other big stack by 10 chips. You have AKs and shove. BB has aces and wins.

Situation A shows you getting it in pretty good and losing in a standard spot that happens a million times. Situation B shows you getting it in really bad even though BB can call with mayyyybe KK+.

I don't know a single sng player who would consider situation A more unlucky than B, regardless of the cards. While situation B is an extreme example, it's not uncommon at all in sngs for very similar situations to arise.

I'm sure it's a useful psychological tool for some people, but it's clearly not an accurate tool to determine precisely how you're running in comparison to longterm expectations.

[TheNoodleMan]

Originally Posted by pifhluk

Whats up with pstars and raptor tickets? 2nd time now they are selling them for fpps. I wonder if it is a legal issue as to why they don't do US teams.

They have done it with Mavs tix in the past, including the NBA Finals.

[dave_w11]

Originally Posted by fluorescenthippo

i cant really tell what he is trying to say but it seems like everyone is misunderstanding sngluckanalzyer. everyone always says it cant tell when you run into the tops of ranges, or loose oppenents skew the results, etc, well of course it cant thats not the point of the program. the program is to see how you run AFTER you are all in. the program is 100% perfect for cash games so it is for sngs, as long as the structure is taken into account but im pretty sure everyone is arguing about this program not be able to do more than it can without being bias, which is lol impossible. and obv i know blackize knows this, im just quoting him, we have talked about pokerev a lot.

so can bones/slim pickens or someone else fill me in on how sngluckanalzyer is flawed maybe im missing it.

Are you talking about SnG Luck Analyzer in this thread?

There are apparently errors in the calculations in that program, and it seems to produce a trend of long term negative "luck". Juks program later in the thread seems to produce better results and juk has backed it up with graphs of a very large sample.

Originally Posted by bones

It only measures a very specific part of the luck involved in all-in pots.

Of the following situations, which would you consider more unlucky?

Situation A- 7 handed, midgame. You have 6bbs and shove AJ from the sb. BB calls with KTo and wins.

Situation B- 4 handed, 2 stacks have less than 2bbs each. Folded to you in the sb where you cover the other big stack by 10 chips. You have AKs and shove. BB has aces and wins.

Situation A shows you getting it in pretty good and losing in a standard spot that happens a million times. Situation B shows you getting it in really bad even though BB can call with mayyyybe KK+.

I don't know a single sng player who would consider situation A more unlucky than B, regardless of the cards. While situation B is an extreme example, it's not uncommon at all in sngs for very similar situations to arise.

I'm sure it's a useful psychological tool for some people, but it's clearly not an accurate tool to determine precisely how you're running in comparison to longterm expectations.

It doesn't account for such different situations (and by that I mean doesn't account for the opponent having the hands they did, it does account for the second situation resulting in a much larger loss in tournament equity), and isn't supposed to give results entirely devoid of influence of luck. It does remove a fairly significant luck factor though and the adjusted results are more likely to give an accurate impression of the long term than actual results.

It is useful psychologically for people who are more stressed by swings to see that they're actually playing ok, and also to more quickly see that you have in fact started playing ****e and not just being unlucky, as I noticed.

I suppose it can be of help practically when trying to move up. -5% over first 500 games? If the adjusted results show -10% then you should seriously think about moving down again, but if the adjusted results show +5% it might be worth sticking it out a bit longer.

[xPeru]

Chaps, I need a favour:

I want to cash out $350 from Stars, but because I live in Peru with a dark age system, it takes 4 weeks to get and cash a cheque. I will tfr moneys to you on Stars first; all you have to do is physically visit a bank (UK, US or AUS) fill out an international tfr form (4 mins tops) and send me the same cash in US$. I get the money in 4 days; I will PM you my bank account details - I don't need to know yours. I can offer a small $20 compensation and a lot of goodwill! PM me if you can help. This is a one off, it just needs to cover me until I can establish my normal cash-out routine.

Sick, but my family can live for a month on $350 here ...

[GtrHtr]

Originally Posted by blackize

I'm pretty sure lacky is still shortstacking. In which case a very large chunk of his winnings come from AI pots

as of a few days ago, he's not shortstacking.

[bones]

[GtrHtr]

Originally Posted by ManChild

I dunno, I'm a pretty big luckbox
>7 this yr

arg.