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02-20-2017 , 04:03 AM
bubble 6max, btn is 27/22 average player. CBET 88%, AGG%55. Should I call/shove his huge cbet?






    Poker Stars, $6.48 Buy-in (60/120 blinds, 15 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37642815

    BTN: 2,042 (17 bb)
    SB: 4,643 (38.7 bb)
    Hero (BB): 2,315 (19.3 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with T 9
    BTN raises to 240, SB calls 180, Hero calls 120

    Flop: (765) 8 3 T (3 players)
    SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 420, SB folds, [color="red"]Hero ???
    [/spoil]



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    TPWK bubble Quote
    02-21-2017 , 07:06 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by CZECHSHARK
    bubble 6max, btn is 27/22 average player. CBET 88%, AGG%55. Should I call/shove his huge cbet?
    The cbet is just over 1/2 pot so not that huge.

    What were hoping for when you called pre ?
    Did you have a plan for the hand ?

    You need to have the most likely scenarios mapped out before you call in these spots.
    This is work you can do off the table so you're not winging it on the flop

    You have top pair/weak kicker facing a cbet.
    Now BTN has put in 1/3rd of his stack so isn't/shouldn't fold.
    TPWK bubble Quote
    02-21-2017 , 07:42 AM
    The cbet is by no means huge, it's 54% of the pot (it represents 23% of his remaining stack and at this point he has 32% of his stack invested in the pot).

    Here's where it sucks that I'm clueless when it comes to maths and I haven't yet delved into ranges (still practicing other basics, haha) but let me try and come up with an answer and then let someone with more experience give you better advice.

    I would say villain is strong here. He has a made hand stronger than yours or a very strong drawing hand, both of which he is probably willing to call an all in with.

    He minraised preflop giving both of you good odds on a call. He bet in a multiway pot on a wet board that is more likely to have hit either the SB or the BB than him (this board doesn't hit him that hard ... 22% mostly consists of overcards which have all bricked at this point while both the 8 and the T are in the SB's and BB's range) while giving both of you 1:2.7 on a call. He can't really expect much fold equity here and probably wants to see weaker hands continue rather than stronger hands fold. He currently has 32% of his stack invested in the pot and is probably expecting a call from at least one of you. More importantly, he is betting into a stack much bigger than him. I would use the SB's stats as a good and reliable reference point of how strong villain is. If SB is fond of calling and somewhat loose, he can't really expect his bets to accomplish much in terms of chasing people away, right?

    He either has a premium pair (JJ+), a better ten than you or a very strong draw which he is semi-bluffing with (2 overcards + flushdraw, straight draw + backdoor flush draw + overcards or something like that).

    You're getting 1:2.7 which means your hand has to be good 27% of the time. You would improve on the turn with 5 cards out of 47 (1:8.4). If you call and the turn isn't a T/9 it's a disaster as the assumption I'm going with given the action so far is he has you beat at the moment. You have to decide between shoving and folding here. Shoving lets you see both the turn and river and allows you to draw out on him while you can also of course fold and continue playing.

    If you shove your remaining 2060 (effectively his 1787) and he calls, you risk an extra 1787 of your chips to win 2552, so you would be getting 1787:2552 or 1:1.42. You would have five outs twice, so 10 outs out of 42 or 10:42 or 1:4.2. You aren't getting the odds on a call and you aren't getting the odds on a shove.

    There are many flaws in my thinking as I haven't for example even considered how often he is (semi-)bluffing or how often he will fold a better hand to your shove to not be eliminated on the bubble, however, this is as far as I can go now. Considering your bad odds on both decisions and the fact that you can continue playing this isn't a good spot to go out as the bubble boy.

    I'd fold reluctantly (what better flop is there for T9o that the one you got?).

    Since this was a mammoth of an analysis for me and since I'm sure there could be many huge and basic mistakes I would be thankful if someone that knows better would comment.

    Edit: looked at his hole cards. Feelsgoodman!
    TPWK bubble Quote

          
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