[converted_hand][hand_history]Pacific, $0.85 Buy-in (100/200 blinds, 20 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37227940

BTN: 5,909 (29.5 bb) 26/19/1.2/336
SB: 2,816 (14.1 bb)
Hero (BB): 4,775 (23.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T A :: ::
BTN raises to 480, SB folds, Hero calls 280

Flop: (1,120) 9 A 4 (2 players)
Turn: (1,120) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets 600, BTN calls 600

River: (2,320) K (2 players)
BTN bets 1,160, Hero calls 1,160

Do we call river? Or do we asume he has better and he doesn't bluff in this stage? How are flop and turn?

Converter sucks, I'm guessing flop went c/c, we bet turn, and then checked river?

Given our line, folding river is pretty much out of the question. He can definitely be bluffing with missed clubs, straight draws (QJ/JT mostly), and even complete airballs that should be folding turn. Not sure why you want to assume he won't bluff and/or wouldn't bluff at this "stage," whatever that means. On top of that, he might value-bet worse Ax or decent Kings.

Why not shove pre? As played no way you can fold... Think villains gonna bluff a lot and value own himself!

We are in top 3 and there is a player with 14 bb, that's what I was thinking when I said "this stage"

Do we shove with 24 bb risking getting called and coming on 3 when there is a player with 14 bb?

I still don't understand.

We'd need to have a rather significant sample size/history with an opponent to determine that he doesn't/wouldn't bluff in particular stages of the tournament. I think what you're saying is that you don't think this player would bluff in such a high equity/ICM heavy spot because 1) You don't do it yourself and/or You don't think it's profitable to do so.

Re: 1) One mistake a lot of players make is imparting their own play/strategies on their opponents. Just because you wouldn't bluff in a particular stage/hand doesn't mean an opponent follows suit.

Re: 2) In this exact situation (by the river), ATss is basically the absolute top of your range. There's no stronger hand that only calls preflop, checks flop, bets turn, and checks river on this runout. Possibly AJ, I suppose, but that's effectively the same hand as AT. All 2p+ likely lead out and there are many more weaker top pair/second pair/third pair combos. So if you're willing to fold the top of your range to a bet, then your opponent's bluff is extremely profitable. In fact, based on your line/hand strength, your river check is a check-fold 100% of the time and therefore a bluff is not only +EV, it's printing money with absolutely no risk.

In addition, putting bubble/ICM pressure on other opponents (often shorter-stacked ones) is an extremely common tactic in tournaments. If you're not doing that, you're likely missing out on a lot of equity.

ACB on the money above, and irritated as well by the sounds of things lol!

Also, don't confuse aggro risk & passive risk.

**Mostly** it's correct to avoid passive risk ie calling HUGE bets pre/post for small chip gain in high ICM situations.

But that does not mean you can't 3bet the guy unless you have QQ+. I mean, in general, how does ATs in chip ev do as a 3 bet jam BB v btn at this depth?
Once you know that, make his open range wider than before, he is the big stack after all.
Then, tighten his calling range slightly. Now see how it is in chip ev.


I'm not saying shove pre is your only option, but you should consider it unless, you know villain open super tight, which a big stack on the btn of a $1 seems pretty unlikely.
If you jam, you have 2 ways to win, and you put the ICM pressure on him, not the other wayaround.

Post flop I'm never folding here - which is what you want us all to say right?

I mean, you only posted the hand so we could all tell you you got coolered I'm guessing.

I hope you have at least tried answer the following Q's:
*What's his PF range?

What would he call a 3b with?

*What hands does he x on the flop?

How does my hand do against that range?

*What hands does he then call my turn bet with?

*Exclude all the hands he would raise or fold, now you know what hands see the river.

How does my hand do v his river range?

*Will many hands worse than mine call a bet?

*Will he bluff much? or

*Are there a lot of weak made hands in his range that will take a free showdown if we x?

*How many of those hands will call a bet?

A very good player in your spot would be able to approx answer all of these questions, but if you haven't tried at least the ones with a * then you have literally no chance of playing well in this final decision for the biggest bet of the hand.

Shove pre and run better.

I like a 3 bet pre for sure. As played, I am never folding. He either has JTc or Kings up. Amirite?