SuperTurbo ROI Discussion (Appropriate Samples Req.) - Page 14 - STT Poker Strategy

sippin_criss · 01-26-2012, 02:47 PM

Ow my brain. That's one smart dude, glad he's doing ok these days.

**TruFloridaGator** · 01-26-2012, 03:02 PM

bump for mergin

Gramps · 01-26-2012, 03:11 PM

Your green line is going to have a pretty big effect on your redline in any hyper/super turbo. You win a lot of flips and get a big stack, you get to accumulate more going forward as people fold more to you. You lose a lot of flips and get put in shorter stack spots, you're going to get folded down more going forward. There's definitely a multiplier of some sort, so your $EV runs are going to be greater up or down than what HEM/PT tells you (most of the time).

Going to be some massive swings in Stars hypers, and several hundred buyins up or down is probably an extremely common occurrence already.

Pokernubz · 01-26-2012, 04:56 PM

wow, i think half the math posts on 2p2 on hard, but that dudes breakdown of Hem redline was in a whole different language. It's not surprising how in the next blog post he writes about the mathematics of poker, honestly if there was a college course on that book in my area, I'd snap sign up. Unfortunately I've tried to read it a few times on my own but I'm almost 100% sure it's written by aliens.

sometimes i wish i didn't just stare at all the hot chicks in class.

JayC170 · 01-26-2012, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bbfg

Hi, I'm starting to get a decent sample of 6max hypers at this point and am curious about what my EV lines actually mean and would like some thoughts on this.

-My sample size for $7s is 7550 tourneys for which I am 300 buyins over EV according to PT3. My EV line basicly has a tiny slope compared to my actual line
-My sample size for $30s is 5k tourneys and I'm 100 BI over EV according to both PT3 and HEM. My EV line for the 30s barely moves basicly:

I should probably mention that I am still learning these hypers (as most of you that play with me probably know

) and that my game is still evolving, and that I probably still suck on certain things. Funny thing is that when I moved up I ran really good, and my game had a ton more leaks back then compared to now, but it is the only time my EV line actually goes up (a bit).... Which leads me to my question:
Am I a fish on a heater or is EV totally not accurate for hypers?

Looks pretty standard, the swings in these are just insane.

I'm 300 BI's below EV over my last 12k games and i don't think that's even touching the brink of what's possible in these games.

Gonna see some insanely huge swings when higher buyins come out and attainable ROIs decrease even further.

JayC170 · 01-26-2012, 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gramps

Your green line is going to have a pretty big effect on your redline in any hyper/super turbo. You win a lot of flips and get a big stack, you get to accumulate more going forward as people fold more to you. You lose a lot of flips and get put in shorter stack spots, you're going to get folded down more going forward. There's definitely a multiplier of some sort, so your $EV runs are going to be greater up or down than what HEM/PT tells you (most of the time).

Very good point that I think alot of people overlook

**TruFloridaGator** · 01-27-2012, 11:09 AM

Please post a breakdown of games/buyins/ROIs along with any graph you might post. This is not a graph free for all thread.

djle2 · 01-28-2012, 11:23 AM

9 man 7 dollar hyper turbo

Over the last week plus; has anyone noticed the games got a lil harder? Less lags, more tags with the same regs?

Also everyone seems to be pushing all in a lot more than before.

Rusemandingo · 01-28-2012, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by djle2

9 man 7 dollar hyper turbo

Over the last week plus; has anyone noticed the games got a lil harder? Less lags, more tags with the same regs?

Also everyone seems to be pushing all in a lot more than before.

thats all me yo

I dont think a weeks worth of play is enough to judge changes in the game unless youre doing a hardcore study and/or have 0 selection bias. And if anything the main leak i see from most regs is overaggressiveness at the wrong time.

Little OT but the fact that a lot of regs are straight pushfold no matter how deep the effective stacks are is hilarious. Got HU with one of these guys 25+ bb deep

vadiupoker · 02-05-2012, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rusemandingo

Little OT but the fact that a lot of regs are straight pushfold no matter how deep the effective stacks are is hilarious. Got HU with one of these guys 25+ bb deep

lol im one of these when 20+ tabling

JayC170 · 02-06-2012, 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vadiupoker

lol im one of these when 20+ tabling

play less tables then imo

vadiupoker · 02-06-2012, 09:57 AM

9max are so boring... I play them to not get break on 6max until I learn them

Roaz · 02-07-2012, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zackryan28

I would recommend reading the 1st post in this blog. This is Sam Ganzfried's blog, who some of you might know as beserious on 2+2 and on 'stars. He was a SNE who specialized in the nosebleed turbos/hypers. He also works in game theory/CS relating to poker, so the guy really knows his stuff. I was fortunate enough to have coffee with him over Christmas, which was awesome of course.

http://gametheoryinpractice.blogspot.com/

I'm not sure I understand correctly,
but what if you constantly run into the top range of other players. If I understand his explenation correctly this will make your red line go down, but it doesn't mean per se that you're playing bad. Isn't it still in a way result oriented then? Could someone explain to me plz.

Max Cut · 02-07-2012, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roaz

I'm not sure I understand correctly,
but what if you constantly run into the top range of other players. If I understand his explenation correctly this will make your red line go down, but it doesn't mean per se that you're playing bad. Isn't it still in a way result oriented then? Could someone explain to me plz.

It does adjust for some luck, making it a better estimate of your true long-term win rate than raw results (better in the sense that a smaller sample is required to deliver a given amount of confidence). However, as in your example, it does not account for all types of luck, which is why you still need an appropriate sample size.

Rusemandingo · 02-07-2012, 04:11 PM

Instead of rehashing the same old stuff

Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread