tough spot, I would probably just fold i think he has a crappy Q, QJ/J8/T9,JT/etc too often for you to call here since he's betting the river so often and this $12 wont get you to showdown.

FD,
Check the jack on the turn sucks because it can pair lots of straight draws and it makes him more likely to fold 98 9t type hands.

Aus,
Fold idk what he has but the turn improved it.

JT is like the only conceivable hand he could have that beats you although I guess to a lesser extent he could have TT. He probably folds a ton of the stuff that you have beat, but I imagine he does some stupid crying call often enough if you bet like 33 or something.

JT TT KJs (maybe with 3 to a flush + an over + a gutter on the flop) and maybe some Q's.

This is a hand where I have always checked the river because I hate the possibility of getting bluff raised, but its starting to seem like hands like this are where you can increase your win rate substantially if you value bet.

What hands does he call with that we have beat?

Surely Cha, answer depends on FD's image here, which we don't know. I'd call a river bet with 55+, T9, 98 from many players. The more I think about this hand, the more I think a turn bet would have erased some of the difficulty. Many hands can call the flop, but I don't think there are many of those that can also call if FD puts more pressure on on the turn.

it would make it easier but Im not betting for fold equity at any point in this hand.

Cha- he has TT less than 25% of the time.

The main reason I posted this is to give some perspective on what is actually close as far as whether to v-bet or not (as opposed to Karp's QQ hand). In the actual hand i bet $50 and he tanked and called w/ 88 but in retrospect I agree w/ pudge that the J makes this a check unless villain can valuebet well enough for me to take most J's out of his range after the river check.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($241.20)
MP ($116.70)
Button ($230.45)
Hero ($136.50)
BB ($62.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A.
UTG raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero raises to $14, BB calls $13, UTG folds.

Flop: ($31) 2, 5, 7 (2 players)

And then whats the plan? BB is 38/4 only over 30 hands

Nice hand.

It seems to me that your image is a factor in getting a worse hand to call. Peru is right. You do make a very good point about thin value betting and that's something I need to improve at.

cleinen- c/f all the way until you hit vs someone this passive. if you have seen him spaz out before then b/c is OK too

cha- value-betting is everything i can't tell you the number of times Ive seen someone complaining b/c they 3-barrel AK on a 27J4Q board and some fish calls them w/ 32s. Then these same people get frustrated waiting for top pair so they can valuebet.

we have 3rd pair top kicker, not so goot for thin value imo. i think some important info here would me his wtSD% and then maybe his won$SD. unless i've seen him make ridiculous call downs i would definitely not be inclined to bet this river.

so let's assume he has like 40% wentSD, and i've seen him make ridic ******ed calldowns. then i would bet an amount that is similar to what i saw him call before.

our absolute hand strength is almost irrelevant i think

i completely agree. but i was trying to point out i'd use more information than 22/17/1.8 to make a bet here.

Those river spots where you want to bet for value, but don't expect to get called too often are the definition of "thin value bets", right? I saw the hand and based on this opponent's core numbers (i.e. assumed he was somewhat decent) would actually have bet a small 1/3rd PSB (like ~30ish). I just don't see him having too many Jack hands, nor Q type hands at the river, so the small pairs or SC/Axs type hands are a *big* part of his range and a small bet might induce a call.

Now these small river value bets are also easy to sniff out it seems and that's where I'd need to go beyond simple assumptions of 22/17/1.8 because a good aggressive player can bluff raise those a bunch. If he was even moderately aggressive or "tricky" post flop I'd check.

yeah vs a player w/ TAG-ish stats Im never betting 1/3 pot, Id bet the same amt as I bet w/ a bluff because they are consciously bluff-catching. Vs a fish I would be more inclined to decrease my bet size because they are more likely to call because it doesnt cost that much.

This is a good point. I think what Mike said about making a smaller bet is good against a fish and probably where I have been burned vs better players getting bluff raised off the best hand while trying to make a thin value bet.

Ok, I went to LA for work last week, and our new tradition is to work all day/night finish 1/2-1 day early and drive to Vegas... gambol/party all night...

So I played some $1/$3 and $2/$5 no limit cash at the Palms last night... oh yea, and Bones was at my table, but I had never met him before, but I had seen his picture on trip reports, so I asked and it was him... so this was pretty cool... he's the 1st 2p2 I ever met in person...

Anyway $2/$5 hand I had about $550 I was in one of the blinds and hyper LAG opens for $35 from MP, folded to me w/ AKclubs. Villain has me covered.

I know I am well ahead of the crap he opens with... call or raise pf?

On flop of Ten high all spades... what should my line be?

2nd hand at the Palms was this morning... playing $1/$3. I had one hour from 8-9 to play some poker before heading to the airport and I had just sat down a few minutes prior.

UTG is short stack w/ a $90 stack and he opens all-in... $90 to win $4. Villain 2 has me covered w/ approx $550-$600. He appears to be one of 6 or 7 regulars at the table. He calls shorty after asking shorty if he has AQ. It is folded to me. I am in BB w/ AK (btw, I bought in for $500).

What should my line be?

Okay I'm once again losing money fater than HM can count.

Villain is 23/17/10.6 over 350 hands. The other dude is a standard TAG.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) IPoker Game#945221450

SB ($100)
BB ($161.13)
UTG ($98)
Hero ($100)
CO ($84.25)
BTN ($176.42)

Dealt to Hero AQ

fold, Hero raises to $4, call, fold, call, fold,

FLOP ($13) 6QJ

check, Hero bets $11, CO folds, SB raises to $33, Hero raises to $96 all-in.

Karp AQ, If he is really that aggro, I shove like you did fistpumping. You do know what fistpumping is, right

If he was a "normal" tag like 23/17/3.x or whatever, I'd take a little more time looking at cr% and think about my image a little in regards to c-betting, and then I'd still probably shove most of the time.

Jek, Hand 1 AKcc, if your definition of hyper LAG is the same as mine, I'd raise to ~110 getting it in pf if possible. On that flop, if you just called, c/f. If you had raised like I would have, I'd take a bunch more info into account including how he responded to my raise and previous hands he's played post flop...hard to say.

2nd hand is harder, but I'd think based on what you heard I'd fold, he's "repping" AK and his range is prolly AK, KK, AA, QQ. I don't know if you have much fold equity but you're not ever going to be ahead when you find out. Maybe I'm a wussie.

FD, I do think the J connects well with his range like you said, so turn check is obv good. Then on the river, for the same reason, I like a check behind. The only thing is that I felt when I first read this hand very stongly like he had a PP below a 9. His AF isn't high but it seems like he would play JT more strongly than he did some of the time which would mean you are more likely ahead and would make me want to value bet.
If he was passive enough to just check call with a Q on all streets, then I can see a check behind here being necc.
I can see why you posted the hand, I would want to value bet here too, but can't see much that he could call with. Though from his perspective if you had JT, KJ, AJ, wouldn't you have bet the turn?

Thanks for posting this, it has def made me think more about my requirements for value betting.

DrJeckyl00, rr AK pf, it is the nuts 100+ bbs deep without strong reads.
After rr on that low flop with non of that suit, it is fine to c/f, but a lot of live nits throw away no spade JJ, QQ, A Qs, so a bluff is fine too.
Second hand, Shove to isolate with no further reads.

Karp, def go broke there. There are a **** load of draws and only one set and one two pair combo to be concerned about.

I have a live hand from this weekend...

9 players, Blinds are $1/$3

UTG $275
Old Man Fish ~$75
Me BB $300
All others from $100ish to $400ish

I am in the BB with J9
UTG raises to $15, 6 calls LOL, I call $10

Flop 789 (pot is $120)
Hero checks, UTG bets $30, 2 folds, Old Man Fish raises to $62 all in, 3 folds, Hero shoves.

My question is mainly about whether I really care if UTG calls a shove with an overpair? I don't know if he is capable of folding an overpair--my guess is that he would fold if I shove. Also, calling PF is absolutely 100% standard here, right? I was planning on check raising the flop. Is leading better?

The other relevent info is Old Man is super LAP pf (prolly like 80/5) and TAP post flop--bets with hands, and checks or calls without hands. Here I am absolutely certain he has at least 2-pair and will never be semi-bluffing here. He could have A9 or K9 but unlikely as he would have just called.

UTG is a co-worker of mine and is decently aware of PF values but I don't really know how how he plays post flop. I am absolutely certain he has a big pair here JJ+ and possibly AK. From what I know he prolly doesn't have TT or a set.

Why cant he have ATcc AQcc or TT (it doesnt matter much either way)?

Board: 9h 8c 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.902% 51.78% 01.12% 15379 333.00 { Jc9c }
Hand 1: 47.098% 45.98% 01.12% 13655 333.00 { TT+, AcKc, AcQc, AcTc }

Board: 9h 8c 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.218% 53.79% 01.43% 11716 310.50 { Jc9c }
Hand 1: 44.782% 43.36% 01.43% 9443 310.50 { JJ+, AcKc }

I like getting it in on the flop before a scare card hits on the turn.

this hand happened earlier: same villain etc


Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

SB: $300.65
BB: $198.00
UTG: $221.50
Hero (MP): $200.00
CO: $485.25
BTN: $281.00

Pre Flop: Hero is MP with A T
UTG calls $2, Hero raises to $8, 4 folds, UTG calls $6

Flop: ($19.00) 4 9 6 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $13, UTG calls $13

Turn: ($45.00) 6 (2 players)
UTG bets $2, Hero raises to $28, UTG calls $26

River: ($101.00) 3 (2 players)
UTG bets $22, Hero folds




Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

CO: $200.00
BTN: $196.90
SB: $260.70
Hero (BB): $240.00
UTG: $460.90
MP: $291.10

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with K A
3 folds, BTN raises to $4, SB raises to $6, Hero raises to $24, 1 fold, SB calls $18

Flop: ($52.00) J K 6 (2 players)
SB bets $8, Hero raises to $48, SB calls $40

Turn: ($148.00) Q (2 players)
SB bets $188.70 all in, Hero folds


villain is like 50/30/.1 or something

idk what im really beating here other than a bluff