3 betting the flop < 2 betting potentially 4 betting the turn.

gtr a shove is just as likely to get called, it looks bluffy and its not an overbet and a smaller bet just makes it really obvious that you're going for thin value. Also just to throw this out here this is not an example of a thin value bet at all you have to valuebet this river 100% of the time.

i think it's a good plan. just curious how you came up with your bet size, i would have made a psb or slightly larger.

It is a PSB

This is so true. Don't forget Devin's theorem of bet and let them figure out what to call with... In this case, they will fold a lot with the draws that missed and even fold some marignal one pair hands, but they will also talk themselves into a call with 56, 88, 99, etc.

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Hero (SB): $207.00
BB: $200.25
UTG: $153.10
MP: $365.45
CO: $287.95
BTN: $419.10

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with A Q
UTG checks, MP calls $2, 1 fold, BTN raises to $13, Hero raises to $38, 3 folds, BTN calls $25

Flop: ($80.00) 2 2 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($80.00) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $52.80, Hero raises to $169 all in

villain is 29/24. i just sat down at the table so i don't know anything about the flow or how he's responding to 3bets. in hindsight i probably should of just cbet and shoved any A/Q/K/diamond turn, but i wanted to be weak tight/spew at my first opportunity.

PF i think is a very very easy 3bet against this guy's isolating range OTB. after he calls i can put him on something like 99+ maybe more PP's i'm not sure how often he's calling, but some guys are like auto-call every 3bet w/ PP. probably weighted to stuff like TT/JJ/QQ

my thoughts on the turn shove was i think he's folding a diamond, he looks like he's trying to get a steal or something and maybe he'll fold a decent % of the time.

For myself, I've learned the hard way to be really careful when I just sit down. I might not even be 3betting pre here.

That said, cbet and pushing a diamond turn if called seems quite reasonable. You'll often get called on the flop with a pocket pair or 9T and they aren't often going to be able to stand the heat and if they can you don't have terrible equity.

If the turn is an Ace or a Queen I don't know about shoving. It's hard for the hands you beat to call, they don't have a ton of outs and you're more likely to get value on the river or catch a bluff if you check the turn. An ace could end up stacking KK or QQ, so maybe pushing an Ace would be ok, but not so likely if a Q turns.

Pushing if a K hits is reasonable of course, but that's definitely one of those lines that gets you in trouble the first couple of hands at a table, but might be a smart play some time later.

It's also one of those boards that doesn't hit either of you very often. Put that in combination with the fact that you just sat down and it's blind vs. blind and it seems like a spot where someone is often going to look foolish.

I dont think he folds the majority of the range you are assigning him (99, TT, JJ, QQ), aside from the naked flush draws. If you have any of those hands crushed, your check on flop and turn does not make sense (if I am villain, thats what I am thinking). Why do you you want to be weak tight/spew exactly? Im not sure I understand

That said, if you shove over his turn bet, it is only costing him 116 to see a pot of 300+. I am snap calling if I am villain here with a lot of hands I lead with here.

On second thought, I am not sure I understand your logic. You state that some guys auto-call any 3bet with their PP. Then on turn, you state that you now think he has a FD or he is trying to steal the pot. So you are putting his range entirely on bluff or naked flush draw on the turn? If he calls you have Ace high and a handful of outs. I guess its not terrible but your thought process confuses me.

i'm like half assuming everything i stated. i have no reason to believe that he does call with random pp's and i have no reason to believe that he doesn't. i wasn't being very precise with my read as a lot of it is up in the air and based on half-witted assumptions.

i was being sarcastic with my weak/tight spewy comment.

Oops sorry, I havent slept in days haha. My apoligies

Here's a hand which exemplifies the difficulty I'm having with FISH. It's really a question about pot control v shoving when you have a marginal hand which you think is ahead of villain.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Hero (UTG): $25.35
MP: $21.05
CO: $20.10
BTN: $23.00
SB: $36.70
BB: $26.30

Pre Flop: Hero is UTG with 9 9
Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, 2 folds, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($3.10) 3 4 8 (3 players)
BB bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4.25, CO folds, BB calls $2.75

Turn: ($11.60) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.25, BB calls $4.25

River: ($20.10) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $10, Hero folds

Flop raise I like, but it builds a bigger pot than I like, so on the turn I figure he has an overpair/set or a draw. I'm happy to shove if he has a draw, but ... so I decide to keep the pot smaller. Villain is 37%/26%/1.9. hence my belief that draws are a big part of his range.

Please give me a better line.

based on villian, I would have raised more on flop, bet more (3/4PSB) on turn and as played you absolutely have to call river. I could see possibly finding a fold somewhere on river had you taken my suggested line, but with your line, calling the river is must to me.

xPeru, i raise about pot on the flop, bet more on the turn, and probably shove the river. as played i def think you can call profitably.

that turn bet is really never OK. bet like $9 and shove a blank river. Make it $5+ on the flop in the first place too

Peru, you are way over estimating your opponents if you only think he has a set, an overpair, or a draw. You definitely need to bet turn more and probably just get it in vs this type of villain. He has random 8's 66/77 A4, random junk, flush draw enough to combat the times he's got a set.

honestly w/ those stats he almost never has an overpair and he can definitely stack off w/ A4 or 8X here

yeah, as Gtr said, after check raising the flop an aggressive opponent will almost always lead the turn, allowing you to raise a big bet instead of a small one. They also sometimes fold to the turn raise though, so capping flop would be ok too.

Villain is 34/14/2.3 over 1k datamined hands. Hasnt been into c/r'ing much. I figured to call the flop mr and get it in on most turns. IE I hit the panic button (all-in).

SB ($107.20)
BB ($106)
UTG ($66.20)
Hero ($98.50)
BTN ($273.55)

Dealt to Hero AK

fold, Hero raises to $4, fold, fold, call,

FLOP ($8.50) 36K

check, Hero bets $7, BB raises to $14, Hero calls $7,

TURN ($36.50) 36K7

BB bets $27, Hero raises to $80.50, BB calls $53.50,

3-bet the flop, turn shove is good as played. you lose to 54 a lot but you stack KX and spades enough to make it good

Guys, many, many thanks, you've helped me fix a major leak in my game. For the interest of others who may have the same problem: my bets with marginal hands have been too small, so I'm not building pots when I'm ahead, and not getting fold equity when I'm behind. The root of this, having reviewed a couple of thousand hands, is a form of money fear; I have been scared to bet properly unless I'm very confident I'm ahead. No fears of losing a buy-in when I get stacked all-in, a fear of relentlessly losing medium pots.

Secondly, Ditch Digger was spot on about over-estimating opponents: just used this advice to take down a nice medium pot v a solid TAG regular.

Last session was the best I've had for a long time, many many thanks.

Poker Stars $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

SB: $614.50
BB: $270.60
UTG: $462.40
MP: $370.00
CO: $394.00
Hero (BTN): $514.10

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with 9 A
3 folds, Hero raises to $14, SB calls $12, 1 fold

Flop: ($32.00) 4 9 Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $22, SB calls $22

Turn: ($76.00) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($76.00) 2 (2 players)
SB checks
Hero: ???



villain is 22/17/1.8 over 500 hands but no significant history and i think a lot of those hands are from a while back cause i dont really remember him. bet/check and how much if we bet?

My note on villain: plays TPWK hard in multiway pot OOP; Leads w/ PSB flop turn and river.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($94.35)
SB ($58.40)
BB ($102.50)
Hero ($123)
MP ($100)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, 9.
Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) Q, 8, 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB calls $6.

Turn: ($20.50) J (2 players)
BB bets $12

Wow you're a greedy bastard trying to squeeze some value out of this. But what do I know?

well i don't necessarily expect to get called a ton but wtf does he have that beats me?

FWIW I think you can get some more value here: I'd eliminate all Qx hands from his range except maybe QT; eliminate 99,QQ,KK,AA,JJ,22; eliminate KT,T8, TJ. I think he would bet all these hands before now. So what are we left with AK, 33,55,66,77,88,TT, maybe A4s and he calls a river bet maybe with 55-88 & TT. So unless he's slow playing you, I think there are enough hands in his range that you beat to make it worth betting the river for value. If he has QT, TT, then you might be able to push him off with a bet. So somewhere between $35 and $60 is probably where the answer lies. I can't see him re-raising with his stats without actually having you beat.

I keep trying ... one day I will actually say something insightful about poker