200 bbs deep against someone who would rr JJ,QQ, I think you have the second nuts and would play this like the nuts. There are draws and pair plus gutshot hand that aren't laying down to a 3 bet, not to mention QJ. I make it 106 and look to get it on most any turn. I can't think of any advantages to just calling. If you were pfr and would flat the rr with AQ,KQ,AJ, then I would see advantage to balance by calling here and c/r all in on some turns.

Thanks for both your responses guys. You played Devil's Advocate, effectively, for the argument going on inside me for 3 betting versus flatting.
I really like how FutureDoc took the time to write how we get value, bank money, from our hand. I really agree with his response and but also think that playing AJ oop can lead to many hard decisions.
Something I wish I did that influences the decision pf is to look at the WTSD of the limper and use that and any other hands showdown to judge how likely they are to go to SD with some junky hand. This influences how much additional value there is from flatting pf. In this spot, I didn't have many hands on the limper unfortunately.

Tough Decisions with a Monster Draw Multiway on Every Street


MP 23/0/2/32h
Butt 64/21/4.8/34h

Preflop is loose, but I would fold 46s and def 43o fwiw.

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

CO: $451.20
BTN: $320.00
SB: $322.85
BB: $122.15
Hero (UTG): $269.85
MP: $264.65

Pre Flop: Hero is UTG with 3 4
Hero raises to $6, MP calls $6, 1 fold, BTN calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($21.00) A 5 6 (3 players)
Hero bets $14, MP raises to $34, BTN calls $34,

This is a bit of a tough spot as I could be up against a bigger flush draw and a big made hand. However, mulitway spots like this can sometimes lead to postflop squeezing...

Hero calls $20. What do you think of the flat here oop?

Turn: ($123.00) Q (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, BTN bets $30,

This is a weak hand very often or sometimes an absolute monster. However, with his donkish stats, I don't know how much Fold Equity I have on the turn. The guy doesn't three bet ever it seems.

Hero calls $30, MP folds wtf

River: ($183.00) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $40,

Ok, so here it comes. Slightly less than Pot sized bet behind. Can't call obv with the third nut low, but exactly how much fold equity exists. I decided stacks were perfect and he was weak...

Hero raises to $199.85 all in

Madsci,

You're in a crappy spot on the flop and the turn cause you gotta figure a bigger flush draw is a huge possibility, but you have 6 outs to the nuts (or close enough) and they are giving you too good a price to fold.

MP fold on the turn is wtf indeed.

River flush is not totally unbelievable for you to have there. It's definitely scary trying to fold out a 64/21 dude, but a lot of them are good candidates for this. I think this is good if you have been at the table together for a bit and you think he is at least somewhat likely to give you respect. Button could easily have a missed draw anyway and you will fold that out.

FYP

I agree with MB's flop and turn thoughts and play it as you did on those streets. River is really read dependent, some of those 60% VPIP guys won't fold any pair here and others are just really loose preflop and bluffy post. I think I'd fold though because the former is more common than the latter, and I wouldn't be surprised to get looked up by J8ss here.

MS,
I'd 4 bet/call the flop, there's so much money in already and we might be able to eliminate bigger FDs this way, increasing our equity by a lot.

I need a good stop-loss-limit. I often find myself sprilaing down too much to blame it solely on variance. I should be high enough so that I wouldnt need to step down every other day but small enough in order for me to be able to grind back up at lower limits.

BB just joined, so no stats. UTG+1 60/19/0.4, and he is the reason I am on this table. call flop?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

MP1: $33.20
MP2: $63.55
Hero (CO): $50.00
BTN: $85.00
SB: $50.30
BB: $24.50
UTG: $19.20
UTG+1: $112.25

Pre Flop: Hero is CO with A K
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, BB calls $1.75, UTG+1 calls $1.75

Flop: ($7.00) 3 5 A (3 players)
BB bets $22.25 all in, UTG+1 raises to $110 all in, Hero ?

I fold this fairly easily..

You would be making a huge mistake.

Edited to my hand above:

UTG+1 60/19/0.4 >800 hands from data mining. He made some donkish move early but I don't remember the exact nature of that. I sat down after he made that move.

+1

Seriously, think about these two opponents, their actions, and what they could possibly have. Now think about how your TPTK is miles ahead of their ranges. Yes, either one could have a monster right now, but based on OP's read of UTG+1 and BB stack and action on the flop, they can have a million other hands besides a monster that you crush.

My opionion might change if either player was a "good" player and the action was the same.

+2

YOU have a monster in this situation. Shorty's range is huge and so is UTG's. You are in a great spot here with AK. Fist pumping snap call FTW!

Def felt the AK hand bill.

If the board were rainbow, I could get away then.

It's a snapfold if UTG+1 has some kind of competence IMO..
Blah I really don't like calling here ours odds are soo bad and bad people love to play twopair like UTG+1 did :-(
If he's pretty maniaclike I think we can call but not just with the information that he's bad... I might be too nitty.

The fact that he's a 60/19 is pretty damning evidence that he's bad. Vs his range our odds are REALLY REALLY good. If you are thinking about folding vs this opponent I think you have entered a whole new level of nittiness. I'd have a very hard time folding vs anyone except the super nits.

madscientist,

just get it in on the flop and hit a spade. if someone else has a flush draw, hit the straight instead. easy game.

Thanks for all your responses.

I cross-posted my hand on the unl forum, and they think that the low agg factor (0.4) is one reason for a fold here. what do you think?

.4 isn't all that low when you take into consideration that he has 60% VPIP. He calls 2.5x more than he bets, but he's playing a ****LOAD of hands.

So what you think his range is?
I'm just used to play small-mediumsized pots with TPTK hands until I know otherwise against a specific player.
I ran into twopair like every time in this very spot when I started over with cash so I might be result oriented.
If villain would just have called I would be more inclined to ship it in, but bad players usually don't raise many hands we got beat here(again, in my up to this point kinda limited cashexperience).

Blackize is right about the 0.4 being insignificant when he's 60/whatever. His range is huge and the short stack's range is also usually huge. This is a great spot to play for stacks because both their ranges are so wide.

Live 1/2. Effective Stacks: UTG+1: 600 Me: 250 CO: 750

PF: 1 limp, UTG+1 raises $10, I call from MP w/ 98s, 3 more call.

POT: $50
Flop: 99T

UTG+1 bets $35, I call, CO calls

POT: $155
Turn: Q99T

UTG+1 bets $50. I contemplate and I see CO putting $50 (out of turn) indicating he is going to call.

Are you more inclined to call, raise, or fold knowing that CO is set on calling here? Thoughts on all streets are welcome.

villain 14/9/1.5 over 80 hands, easy fold?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

BTN: $13.45
Hero (SB): $50.30
BB: $51.30
UTG: $48.75
UTG+1: $55.55
MP1: $46.50
MP2: $23.95
CO: $22.20

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with K K
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.75, 1 fold, MP1 calls $2.25

Flop: ($6.00) 6 9 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, MP1 raises to $21, Hero ?

Mad Sci,
I think pre is pretty bad there.
I would three bet the flop because you can fold out better fds and you are racing vs. sets. As played I hate the river you really aren't repping much except Axhh

DL,

I'd really prefer to raise the flop since you have another player behind. HU I wouldn't mind calling. As played, I'd def shove the turn. Also, folding would never cross my mind.