Duerdy QQ = Seems like a fold when 14/10 SB 4 bets in full ring after you raised in EP.

UTG+2 is a nitty bad reg, who takes terrible lines and overplays his hands, he is 13/9 over 1k hands. Postflop aggression 40/39/18.

BB is a solid reg running 15/11/4.5% 3bet over 842 hands. His postflop aggression is 33/31/34.

I would like a sanity check on the turn raise. I have doubts this is the correct line. I basically raised cause I can't fold against UTG+2 and dont want BB to improve if he has KQ/JQ.
I cant disclose sets in UTG+2's range, but BB doesn't have them in his range here since I have TT.

Thoughts about flop and turn?


Full Tilt Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+2: $38.10
MP1: $101.40
MP2: $100.00
CO: $40.00
Hero (BTN): $100.00
SB: $43.50
BB: $100.00
UTG: $76.00
UTG+1: $213.55

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with T T
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $3.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($11.00) K T J (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets $4.00, Hero calls $4, BB calls $4

Turn: ($23.00) 6 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets $12.00, Hero raises to $30, BB raises to $92.50, UTG+2 calls $18.60 all in, Hero folds

I'd probably just raise the flop cause a flop raise is much weaker than a turn raise and there are a lot of cards that can kill your action.

The turn is fine, to raise. Once you raise it's a really gross spot. I can't see villain flatting KJ on the flop and then cold 3beting the turn. I think he has JJ or AQ pretty much always, and it's a good fold. Although I'd probably call in game.

Running into some coolers huh?

I like the raise for the reason you gave, because KQ or JQ is getting too good a price if you just call. It's hard to say what he does with KJ or JT there if he could have those.

I would have doubts about him having AQ, KK, or JJ though even after his turn c-r. He could have AQ or JJ, but I would have thought it likely enough that he either 3 bets them pre, or tries to get more money in on the flop that I'm now thinking the c-r on the turn is KQ or QJ and I think I'd probably give him all my money.

Dunno, though, maybe calling preflop there with AQ or JJ is more standard in full ring.

I wouldn't 3bet either of those hands against a nitty reg very often. maybe AQ, but as a bluff.

I think it's more likely he flats AQ/JJ preflop, than he goes crazy with KQ. People just c/c c/c with those type hands 95% of the time.

Here's a public service announcement...

You should not be listening to any of my advice. I'm a massive losing player:

Fack that's gross! Is that 400nl or higher? Is the EV line better?

Regarding the hand, yeah AQ is not going to be 3bet by BB against nitty UTG+2, he may 3bet me with it though. Same will go for JJ, although maybe he would, not fully sure.

Both villains had AQ when I checked back the HH (rush poker), turned out I would've boated the river, hence my mind in somewhat results-oriented mode and questioning if turn was correct.

Plus, if you don't fold you're probably going to boat up.

Also, don't listen to me. I haven't played poker in months.

Unfortunately it's almost all 200nl. The last little downward slope after the big straight down part is 100nl. He EV line is about $1700 higher.

That sucks Devin, but your advice is still excellent imo.

I know I'm drunk, but still wanna puke reading that.
FFS please run beeter.
If it's any consolation, you're way better than me and this is my garf since July 1st, so no doubt you'll be fine. But I have to admit you're graph has me a bit scared..

very nice graph.

Mine doesn't look near as bad if I take that kind of sample:

And I was just going to welcome you to $25nl ...

Deurdy, it's really useful to have a pop-up or HUD line which gives 3 bet stats from Bn,SB,BB.

I know 6 max is different, but at the 20-50bb tables, you can profitably 4 bet shove a huge range (anything over 8%, I'm now shoving my whole range) against a lot of the regs who 3 bet from these positions when you open from the CO.

That sounded frivolous on rereading, but it doesn't happen that often that you get a guy who can fold in the blinds 3 betting that wide at my levels.

Peru, actually I've thought about adding those stats, but I'm kinda afraid it will lead to me 4betting even more than I'm doing now, and I'm not sure if that a very smart thing to do at FR. On the other hand the standard 3bet stat already gives a clue about their 3betting and if it's e.g. 7% overall I of course know it will be much wider on BTN, SB and BB.
Have to say that 4betting very small is a lot of fun, since most players are clueless how to deal with it.

I'm also doing something which might sound and be silly, which is that whenever I have more than 125BBs I close the table and then reload with 100BBs. My perception was that people stack off easier when you have 100BBs than e.g. 240. Had the feeling that fish somehow thought both fish were thinking alot "hmmm, he does have a big stack, so he's probably good and will have it" in close spots and regs didn't want to get it in with the 3rd nuts for >200bbs. E.g. with 100bbs they dont fold AA to sets raising with 100bbs, but obv when they have 150bbs more behind they already see on the flop that it can get very marginal and will not proceed. Could be me though, so flame away.

3betting stats:

I think peru is right, it is very important to distinguish between positions. There are many different types of 7% 3betters. There are the ones with a 3% from btn, 12% from sb, and 15% from BB (nits love this style). Then there are the 10% from btn, 5% from sb, 10% from bb types.

Yeah, then perhaps I can kick some other stats out of my HUD, cause I'm actually hardly looking at cbet flop% and fold to cbet%.

WTF! Why not? They are the nuts of statistics to use. Cbetting correctly, check raising, and 3 betting the flop are enormously profitable tools, the use of which is much aided by these stats.

My set up is:

Line 1: AbbName;Hands;BigBlinds(only for trnys);Winnings(only for cash)
Line 2: VPIP;PFR;AF;Steal;BBfold to steal
Line 3: FlopCbet; Fold to flop cbet; 3 bet; fold to 3 bet; donk bet flop
Line 4: Btn 3bet; SB 3bet; BB 3bet; Fold to 4 bet; WTSD

The overall 3 bet stat and the fold to 4 bet stats are pretty redundant, but I don't know what actionable data to replace them with. I don't have a squeeze stat any more, since I didn't find it changed my ranges significantly - if I think I'm being squeezed, I just look at the other data to decide how to respond.

Suggestions for replacements/improvements and what actions you take as the result of the data you suggest?

Well tbh I bet, bet flop and turn almost always, unless the board is gross of course, so I don't actually care if they fold to cbets or not.
In FR occassionally you'll have a player flatting a set 2 streets, so be it, but other than that if they flat they are either drawing, have a hand that cannot stand a lot of heat or just floating for the sake of floating. All those hands fold to two barrels (sometimes I need 3..) unless they dramatically improve.
For the record I cbet 81%.

For determining whether or not to 3bet or c/r on the flop I mainly look at flop aggression%.

my hud stats:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...ostcount=18656

Fold to steal gives you lots of opportunities to steal w ATC that I would otherwise miss:


Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $5.00
MP: $4.44
CO: $5.50
BTN: $9.20
Hero (SB): $13.00
BB: $40.46

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with 4 8
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold

Final Pot: $0.50
Hero wins $0.50

OOP I'm not stealing w 84o without some nice numbers

I have Winnings on the top line, because there are a lot of regs who are actually losing players. If I see a reg who is losing over 1k hands, I generally check him out on PTR, then review his hands to see how I can exploit him.

Villain is 30/0/0% 3bet over 10 hands.
Postflop aggression 25/67/0/0 (this hand prolly contributed largely to turn aggression nr here).

Standard, or are we doing better by checking behind on turn?

I think his range here will be most likely Qx, maybe sometimes some Tx. I would expect him to get it in with a set on the flop, and also think it's unlikely for a set to donk the flop here, so I think 55/TT is less likely.


Full Tilt Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP2: $106.00
CO: $125.05
Hero (BTN): $100.00
SB: $139.00
BB: $92.55
UTG: $56.55
UTG+1: $144.95
UTG+2: $46.75
MP1: $33.10

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with K J
6 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6.50) T Q 5 (2 players)
BB bets $4.00, Hero raises to $12, BB calls $8

Turn: ($30.50) T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $23.00, BB raises to $77.55, Hero calls $54.55

tough spot. I don't really think he's folding much of his donking range though. The parts he does fold you have a tonne of equity against or the best hand. Tx is definitely in his flop range, and he's not folding Qx either.

I'd probably just check it back.

Villain is 29/20/4.7 over 892 hands.
His postflop aggression is 35/42/37.

Seeing how we got to the river and his stats I believe him to have KQ/QJ the large majority of the time here.

That being said I see about 4 options for the river, which would you prefer and why?

1) shove it
2) bet pot or close to it
3) b/c half pot hoping he will raise.
4) c/rai.

Full Tilt Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (MP2): $100.00
CO: $119.60
BTN: $113.55
SB: $79.70
BB: $100.00
UTG: $66.35
UTG+1: $94.05
UTG+2: $215.90
MP1: $37.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with 5 5
4 folds, Hero raises to $3, CO calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 2 5 Q (2 players)
Hero bets $5.00, CO calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $12.00, CO calls $12

River: ($41.50) Q (2 players)
Hero?

interesting spot...I think all decisions are pretty close.

I probably wouldn't shove, unless you think he's bad. A shove looks at minimum like AQ to me when no draws missed.

I probably wouldn't bet half pot either. Any bet on this river should look super strong, and he might just flat KQ/QJ or 22 regardless of your bet.

So, I'd either bet close to pot, or c/shove. He's going to bet anything he can call bet with imo, the only question is if he bets as large of a bet that'd he call, or if he can fold to the c/r. I think I like the c/r option. but again, I think it's very close.

I look at these problems this way: what hands are in his range and how much will he pay me with each of them? What betsize maximises my EV?

His range: First hands we're pretty sure are in his range

22,77, 88,99,TT, AQ, KQ, QJ, QT, Q9

+ maybe JJ, QQ, KK, AA
+ Weirdly, AK, A5, A2, A7?, 43s?

Red hands will call a shove
Magenta call and win
Red and Green call a PSB.
What hands will raise a smaller bet? 22,QQ,77 maybe AQ. The rest of his Qx hands will surely call, even though he is an aggro player.

So to me its seems that a PSB gets the maximum hands to call. A shove gets about twice as much, so are there twice as many hands that call a PSB as a shove? I don't think so, so I think you maximise your value by potting the river. If villain shoves over, then you win often enough to make the call automatic and if he has you, it's time to post in BBV.

I don't like the check shove option as much; on principle, I plan to bet my big hands, rather than hope villain bets them for me, so I'd only check if I was very confident he'd go for it. Here, as Devin says, it's pretty close. I think c/r gets extra money out of mid pairs and Qx, so maybe there's enough juice to risk him checking behind.