jbrochu -
If someone is a sucky calling station don't be afraid to bet more. Depends on exactly how this guy sucks, but against some guys I pot the flop and overbet the turn.
This isn't the greatest example because villain is a bit short and we got more money in on the flop and the turn, but it's something simular (as we say back in Indiana) from a hand I played last night.
Absolute Poker $1.00/$2.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter
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CO: $161.00
Hero (BTN): $504.35
SB: $195.00
BB: $400.00
UTG: $423.10
Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with K
A
UTG calls $2, CO calls $2,
Hero raises to $10,
3 folds, CO calls $8
Flop: ($25.00) 8
7
A
(2 players)
CO bets $12,
Hero raises to $34, CO calls $22
Turn: ($93.00) T
(2 players)
CO checks,
Hero bets $144, CO calls $117 all in
River: ($327.00) 8
(2 players - 1 is all in)
As far as the river goes, that card obviously sucks for you. He's either calling you down with a T or something or with an 8. There aren't really many ways for him to bluff a missed draw, so I don't like check/call. You say he's passive postflop, so if you think you are ahead more than 1/2 the time and you are sure you can make the right decision if he raises, you should bet/fold. If you bet like $30, you'll have like $50 behind and the pot will be like $160 if he pushes.
Would you be confident that that was a good fold there against this guy?
If you think that you will be ahead more than 1/2 the time there, but might be putting yourself in very -EV position if he raises, then you still have to face a pretty bad decision if you check and he bets along with the lost value whenever it checks through.
I think I like bet/fold best of all if you really think he's passive post flop, although when he minraises I probably pay off in the real world.
It's not that you are ahead so much of the time here, but check folding is pretty lame on the river and check calling probably means you'll pay off $30 more every time he has a straight and just miss out on the $30 every time you have him beat.