Quote:
Originally Posted by DevinLake
This really makes no sense to me. The 3 doesn't really change much except for 67ss and he should expect you to keep valuebetting anything you've been valuebetting. But, you haven't shown any weakness and you have exactly what you are repping and he's not trying to bluff you off it. So, I'd fold. Just fold.
Hi Mike,
How often have you seen one of the 22/19 25nl players make a $12 river bet into a $14 pot without being able to beat top pair? I've found that their river value bets at the top end of the value range are almost always strong, enough so that I just don't think we ever have the right odds to call with one pair. If he has an A that you beat, he's much more likely to bet small, or check call river.
So that leaves us with a question. What can we call on the river? If nothing, then our turn call is done in the hope of him checking the river and us getting to showdown with the best hand. This I don't like, so if I call turn, I'm definitely calling a river bet up to about $10, or bet/folding if he checks river. Given this is my plan for the river, and I'm prepared to put more money in to the pot with TPTK, I often raise the turn instead. It seems to me that this is the best way of using your position against the tight/regs at 25nl. I think he can fold a lot of draws and aces that you beat, but he can also call a lot of his draws with the wrong odds, so I'm not sure whether either of my lines is really good. Being confused in this way, I'm often going into check call mode with my TP hands and just hoping that the pot doesn't get too expensive by the river
Been fun to play you recently
Note his turn betsize $4.55 is almost exactly 80% of the pot, so if he's multitabling, he's probably also using TN or an AHK script for betsizing. 12 into 14 is just over 80%, so both bets are what you'ld get from betpot set to 80% - this seems pretty high to me, so methinks he's strong and eg clicking the mousewheel instead of the right button? Worth a note to check later.
Last edited by xPeru; 02-09-2010 at 02:15 AM.