You should probably call. Even if his range is as narrow as say 99-88,AQs,KQs,JTs,AQo you're not losing much at all. If JTo is in his range then that's bad, but I think it's much more likely stuff like T9s is in his range. The call of the threebet preflop and the overpot jam on the turn both argue against JTo imo. There are some other hands that will be in his range sometimes (big pairs, KQo, QJs, 89s, 87s) and it's hard to say exactly what your equity looks like, but in general I think there will be enough QJ, T9, J9 type hands that you should call.

Hum?

Checking back is unstandard but fine I think, but the the way you wrote it it seems like you're not happy when a 35% or sth eq hand calls your bet on the flop.

I mean, I don't really want them folding when I protect my hand, I wanna make money when they call getting bad odds...

I'm not sure which hands you're referring to, but if you mean (AT, T8, 86. Axdd etc), those hands are 41.3%, 44.5%, 43.6% and 44.6% respectively. That's very slim pickings. Getting that slim value out of those hands takes a big back seat to not building a big pot with an average hand that can't improve, not getting checkraised off your hand vs T9 or Axdd, etc etc.

I have found it useful to reformulate ChrisV's reasons to bet:

1. You want villain to fold. (A bluff)
2. You want villain to call or raise. (Value)
3. You want him to do both! (Protection, you're happy that he folds, but want him to pay too much if he calls)

Just reformulating it this way makes me focus much more on my betsizing, which makes such a huge difference to my winrate.

Re: protection, obv you have a vulnerable hand which is probably best at the moment eg T6 on T42 flop. You want to protect your hand, but you don't want to go to war. Most of the time you are ahead, but sometimes villain is slow playing or limping AA PF. What do we really want to happen here? I just want to take this down now, I certainly don't want to have to bet another street, and if villain calls, unless I have good reads, I'm probably done with the hand. So I size my bet to achieve my immediate objective. This depends on villain. If I think he would fold 2 overs to a half pot bet, then that's what he gets. If I think he won't fold unless I overbet the pot, then I overbet the pot. End of part 1.

But now I'm building a pot with a very weak hand, and so yes I want to protect, but at the same time, I want to protect my stack! So here, I say that this hand is too marginal to put money into the pot this early, and I decide to check, and bet a blank turn.

My weak marginals get the second treatment, stronger marginals get the first. Does this solution sound sensible?

Then you're right.
From the back of my head I thought we had about 5% more Eq against those holdings.

peru, not sure what to respond to but ill give it a try.

you can protect your stack by folding when vill raises.

in order to keep betting with a weak hand (or any hand for that matter) you need to know if villain will call with a worse hand. sometimes our hand is so weak that our "protection" bet is more of a bluff than it is for protection.

when you get to the flop you should be able to realize right away how much show down value you have, and you can act accordingly. no showdown value lends more to betting the flop, lots of showdown value (lots worse hands will calll) lends to betting, and then there is the middle ground with marginal showdown value where REALLY knowing vill's calling ranges will be very important.

some villains will call you down with anything if you check back the flop and bet later streets (check/bet/bet) or will call you light if you go bet/check/bet, basically, IT ALL DEPENDS

i hope this helps

I don't really look at it like you're checking to protect your stack here. I think you're checking to protect your equity. Because if you think you have to fold if you bet and get raised, it really sucks since you have quite a bit of equity in the pot and it goes up a lot on a blank turn.

The example I gave is pretty common when I'm BB against a limper, or several limpers. It's a good flop to stab at with any pair less than T, so I expect a check will be followed by a decision to call a bet. As JBrochu says, a donkbet risks a raise I can't call, where the check call line looks stronger esp if I lead any turn. I'm pretty sure this is not a hand I want to check down to the river, I have too much equity, and it's vulnerable, so I have to bet it out at some point. Check call flop lead turn seems to have the best probability of winning, and is likely cheaper than bet check bet, no? Obv fold to any sign of strength ...

peru what hand are you talking about?

Sorry, I thought we were still talking about checking back the QQ hand when I typed my response about checking back to protect your equity and not your stack.

Party Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 28021
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $22.50
BB: $100.00
UTG: $104.65
MP: $143.35
Hero (CO): $270.90
BTN: $42.60

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with A J
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, SB calls $3, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($10.50) 5 7 J (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $7.00, SB folds, BB calls $7

Turn: ($24.50) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $16.00, BB calls $16

River: ($56.50) T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $30.00, BB raises to $73.50, Hero ???

Villain's 1st hand.

Turn card makes your AJ fairly marginal, so I think it's wrong to fire the second barrel; it's tough to get three streets of value out of one pair, so IMO you should check turn and bet river. This avoids you getting pushed off what is probably the best hand, and you don't want to make this a huge pot. As played, I fold, because I can't see the KJ,QJ hands in his range not raising you on flop or turn, his range now looks much more like 64, 98 or JT or even a set. Without reads it's hard to say what % of the time he's bluffing, and therefore difficult to know whether you have the right price to call, so I'm going for discretion and folding.

I think he had 98 or air or was a huge fish!

Fold, people don't run huge checkraise bluffs in this spot at this level. I think checking turn and betting three times are both OK but would probably bet three times vs an unknown. His most likely hands by a mile after he checkraises are JT and 98.

Spot on read (basically) - I was thinking some of these things (like he wouldnt do this with a made straight) so I called. He had TT.

Spot on again - this time I put him on JT, then I looked at my nearly 4-1 odds, figured there had to be some hands I beat in his range, and curiosity got the better of me so I called. Sure enough, he had JT.

Thanks Chris.

Villain is 28/20/1 with a 3bet % of 11 over 350 hands, I've been playing on three tables with him and he's been three betting my button raises pretty light......

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
Villain ($126)
SasaR21 ($21.50)
IRAWZUM ($50)
Mike Desfoss ($72.55)
Hero ($133)

Dealt to Hero QA

fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.75, Villain raises to $7, fold, Hero calls $5.25,

FLOP ($14.50) 7Q6

check, Hero bets $12, Villain calls $12,

TURN ($38.50) 7Q66

check, Hero bets $25, Villain calls $25,

RIVER ($88.50) 7Q663

Villain checks, hero???

I'd bet a bit more on the turn probably, and river is definitely a bet. Bet like 2/3 pot hoping to get a call from a hand like KQ or JsJ. Since you're posting this I'm going to guess he had the nut flush, but that's pretty random.

My roommate agreed that the river was a bet there, so I figured I'd post the hand here so he could rub it in my face that he was right. Wouldn't the majority of hands that call me on the river be ones that are beating me? It felt like he'd probably fold all his 88-JJ hands that missed the spade draw, and call with bigger pairs, and maybe a random flush, or QK, QJ. One of my biggest leaks is that I miss way too much value in spots like these, what can I do to get away from that "he has me beat, check back!" mentality?

I think you're too deep to bet the river

almost all of the hands that you beat that call flop and turn are folding the river because they missed the draw or their pair+fd just cant call on such a dry riv bc you prob arent 3 barrel bluffing this board often

This is true but it's also very unlikely that villain has played a hand that beats us like this. I would expect to see frustration calls from JJ, KQ etc more than hands that beat us.

What's this mean? You think he gets bluff shoved on a lot here?

No, just imo villains calling range on the river after taking this line has very few worse hands(that can stand 3 barrels) considering the deepness and board texture, and most of our value comes from the draws on turn and riv.

ah ok, so stack depth really has nothing to do with your argument.

Anyway, this is a spot (like ChrisV said) where, although it's hard for them to call with worse, it's also very rare that they have better. So, this is where I use my philosophy of betting and letting them decide what worse hands they can call with.

My bet sizing is dependent on our history and what I think of them. If they are weak, I'll bet smaller to induce a call. If they are a stronger player that I have a history, I'd bet an amount that could be a bluff like 2/3rds or 3/4 of pot.

I couldn't agree more with this.

Recently, in this situation but where the board doesn't pair on the turn, and against an opponent who is weak, I have had some success shoving the turn. Villains call with all their Qx hands, and with any A/K spade hands. My philosophy of get the money in while they still have hope!

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 34130
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BitsNBytes_001 (BTN): $7.10
QTcoatl (SB): $25.80
RockenroIIa (BB): $44.65
AMReis (UTG): $27.40
Hero (MP): $26.00
Niceone10 (CO): $25.45

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with 9 9
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, Niceone10 calls $0.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.85) Q 6 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, Niceone10 raises to $2.75, Hero calls $1.75

Turn: ($7.35) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $4.80, Niceone10 calls $4.80

River: ($16.95) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Niceone10 checks



Thoughts on flop call? Looked like a standard cbet raise to me, then when another Q comes on turn, it further validates it, so I want to make FDs pay and now that the Q comes off he might pay turn bet with smaller PPs (which I guess make up a small range of what I'm beating, basically 77-88) or am I thinking too much? Don't play much cash, so thanks.

I think the flop call is ok but I'll usually do it to see what develops on the turn. I'm not sure about leading the turn but as a blocking bet it worked pretty well imo assuming ur plan was to b/f. I can't put him on anything at all.