Jbrochu,

I might fold against the turn donk vs this villain. Although your sample is tiny you can still say with certainty that he is not particularly aggressive, and you have absolutely no idea what the bet represents or whether he intends to call down with any pair. I would rather play a safe line until I have more information. I do raise in this spot frequently though. I will also sometimes call and raise or bet any river.

In the second hand, checking is really bad. This is partly for the reason Devin outlined, but there are two other factors: he might be drawing live with a hand like 89 and giving a free card to this hand is a really bad idea. Also he may have a hand like 87. In that case, you are going to get checkraised and will definitely stack him. If you check behind, he will bet the river and likely get cold feet and just call when you raise.

Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $186.50
MP: $98.50
CO: $80.60
BTN: $89.50
SB: $102.00
Hero (BB): $105.05

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with J J
UTG calls $1, 3 folds, SB calls $0.50, Hero raises to $6, UTG calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($13.00) 7 7 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $8, UTG raises to $16, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($45.00) 2 (2 players)


Villain is completely unknown. Share your thought process with me re: planning the hand starting with his flop miniraise. Are you willing to stack off here against the average 100nl unknown?

Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (CO): $100.00
BTN: $101.30
SB: $94.05
BB: $120.50
UTG: $180.20
MP: $183.30

Pre Flop: Hero is CO with A Q
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, BB calls $3

Flop: ($8.50) 5 A 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB calls $6

Turn: ($20.50) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12, BB calls $12

River: ($44.50) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $98.50 all in, Hero thinks he's full of **** but isn't sure what to do...?


Another complete unknown.

Jbrochu,

The JJ hand:

Ok, villain limp/calls our raise PF from UTG:

His range is wide. He could be min-raising this with any pocket pair here really, suited connectors, two overcards (im sure youre aware of this lol). On flop you are most likely still ahead on. Many villains who have a PP on a paired board will min-raise the PFR when he c-bets. He is doing this bc A) he might think his hand is still good and B) information bet to see where he stands

Turn is a good card obv. I would lead out 30-35 here.

I could be off but thats what I got out of it

I think your analysis is correct. The thing is if I lead for 30-35 I'm essentially pot committed if villain shoves.

I still believe I'm ahead of his range after his miniraise on the flop, but if I lead again on the turn and he shoves I'm no longer sure but I can't fold.

The problem is checking the turn sucks too.

.25/.50 nl 8 handed home game.

Stacks and estimated vpip/pfr:

UTG has ~ $40, 40/15
UTG+1 has ~$55, 60/20
Hero has ~ $65, 25/15
Button has ~ $60, 80/15
SB has ~ $30, 50/10
BB has ~ $20, 40/10

Hero is in CO with A K

UTG, UTG+1 limp
Hero raises to $4.50
5 calls

Flop AT4 rainbow

Checked to UTG who leads $3 (not an unusual bet for her with any pair or a weak draw)

UTG+1 raises to $8 (her range is 44, A4 & AT - AK plus possibly a few weaker A's. I would weight her range most heavily towards AT - AQ at this point)

Hero ?

If I call here, there will likely be more callers because they all think they should play weaker hands & draws when "getting good pot odds".

Jbrochu,

JJ hand I c/shove the turn. Let him call with spades, A8, 89, 44 etc. He'll have a 7 here at times, but I still think a shove would be +EV.

AQ hand, I'd fold. There aren't many hands he could be turning into a bluff here and I don't think he plays a naked A this way very often. 34 got there, so the only draw he could have that missed was 78.

Cha, sick spot. I'm not raising here.

It's tough but I might actually fold. But, if I couldn't find a fold I'd just call and re-evaluate. You do have possibly 3 outs with some backdoor straight draws.

Villain was playing something like 40/5 and very very weak-passive. He called a lot of my pfr's and folded to my c-bets pretty much every time. One time he called a flop bet and I bet turn and he folded. He SNAP called the flop and turn bets, and turbo shoved the river. His AF is really low for every street. I can't see this guy bluffing a missed FD and shoving Tx or JJ etc would seem strange from a guy like this. What do you guys say?



Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $45.05
SB: $46.35
BB: $17.40
UTG: $12.75
CO: $24.55

UTG posts $0.25
Pre-Flop: A 3 dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG checks, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.25, SB calls $1.15, BB calls $1, UTG folds

Flop: ($4) T 5 4 (3 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2.60, SB calls $2.60, BB calls $2.60

Turn: ($11.80) 2 (3 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $9, SB calls $9, BB folds

River: ($29.80) 2 (2 Players)
SB bets $33.50 and is All-In,

criss, even though this guy is passive I would call on the river. When someone snap calls it usually means a draw or a weak made hand. If he flopped a set and filled up on the river he sure played it strange the entire way.

You're getting just about 2-to-1 on the river so he only needs to be bluffing or shoving what he thinks is the best hand 33% of the time or more for your call to be good.

I agree with jbrochu. I'd expect it to be missed diamonds more than like AT say, cause I don't think he'd snap shove a medium strength hand. He'd have to think about it. So, I'd say it's more likely nutz or air rather than a weaker made hand.

Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BB): $117.10
UTG: $90.00
MP: $100.00
CO: $117.05
BTN: $200.45
SB: $95.95

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with K K
UTG raises to $4, 3 folds, SB calls $3.50, Hero raises to $16, UTG calls $12, 1 fold

Flop: ($36.00) 8 T J (2 players)
Hero bets $28, UTG raises to $56


Villain is 61/15/1.5 25 hands

Why are we not betting the flop against an unknown?

Because he took awhile to check and I thought I was getting called or c/r a lot.

How often you go with this read against an unknown?

I depends on a few things.

A) flop texture (which is not good here).
B) double barrel ability. Whether there is likely to be cards to come that I can represent.
C) sadly, how I'm running. If I'm running good I'm more likely to c-bet anyway.

The problem with a board like this is, I will often feel compelled to 3 barrel it because it's so drawy. So, I have to be willing to play a big pot here.

i go broke. he could be doing this with a good number of drawing hands and weaker made hands.

I can't fold here. I just can't give him enough credit to have 63, or whatever PF hand that beats us now. Yes, he could, but I think it's more likely a worse hand or same hand.

I'd stack off on this flop to this opponent. I think the range of hands is too great to fold to this opponent. Top pair, pair/draw, even OESD + over might be in there.

edit: closer than I thought acc to Pstove...and actually behind, but does the dead money still make it (a shove) good?

[SIZE=1]Board: 8c Td Jh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.168% 48.52% 00.64% 76861 1021.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 50.832% 50.19% 00.64% 79496 1021.50 { AJs, A9s, KJs+, K9s, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, AJo, A9o, KJo+, K9o, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+, 97o+ }
[/SIZE]

40/12 only 12 hands, but has already made a couple of goofy plays.
I intended to call/bet river, but wasn't expecting such a big bet...

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BB: $98
UTG: $50.10
MP: $103.40
CO: $241.50
Hero (BTN): $99.50
SB: $62
Pre-Flop: A 9 dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, CO calls $3
Flop: ($9.50) K K A (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $6, CO calls $6
Turn: ($21.50) 4 (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero checks
River: ($21.50) 5 (2 Players)
CO bets $33, Hero ...

what kind of goofy plays did he make previously? i'd probly still call.

A9o hand...I'd probably fold. He certainly play a K this way. I just don't think he has a busted flush draw or gut shot very often here and you don't have good equity against other made hands.

Mike - a lot of those goofballs will play a K exactly like that.

Yeah, I know. But if I was planning on calling the river, at what point should I draw the line and not call the river? A. If he was a good, thinking player B. if he was a probable idiot, or C. a complete unknown?

I feel like in this particular hand, it doesn't make much of a difference in regards to the opponent, except that I would be more likely to call a bigger bet from the goofball who might have a tendency to overvalue his Ax hand.

I messed up PF bad (I know). Should have 3bet this hand pf since its a min raise and since I have the button and since I have Ako and since like 20 million other reasons. Villain is unknown.


Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

bbball22 (BB): $23.95
MacD557 (UTG): $54.25
autopt (MP): $12.40
ojunk (CO): $20.60
Hero (BTN): $24.65
alf06 (SB): $24.25

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with A K

MacD557 raises to $0.50, autopt calls $0.50, ojunk calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, alf06 calls $0.40, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.75) 6 A Q (5 players)

alf06 checks, MacD557 bets $0.50, autopt calls $0.50, ojunk folds, Hero raises to $3.25, alf06 folds, MacD557 folds, autopt raises to $6