I am not folding at this point. My thoughts are do I flat call this, or am I missing value by flat calling?

The fact he leads out on the river after I have shown continued aggression on both previous streets could mean one of two things.

A) He wants a cheap showdown. When he lead out on the turn, I thought maybe he had two pair with a weaker ace.
B) He is inducing a raise/shove by leading so weak on the turn (he puts me on a big hand but doesnt seem worried)

It did not make sense to me initially why else someone takes this line if the other persons line is indicative of such a strong holding (unless they have a weaker two pair, or if they have a set and are playing it weird).

I agree with Microbet completely bc its obvious if he has played his hand this way that he is capable of calling with worse, but is the % of the time he shows up with worse hands here more often or less often? It didn't feel close at the time, but I guess it really depends on any prior information you have at this point on your opponent. I thought about shoving at first, but flat called instead.

i'd shove and get called by A4

FYP

6-3 no question. K is in their donkey calling range effectively making it crap if it hits. 6-3 puts together a lot of hidden draws that will punish

lol! so I guess I am too passive sometimes

Depends on the villain - I have run into a few rocks that might take that line with a set, but otherwise I'm getting as much money in the pot as possible vs 99% of players.

blacksize and cake - yeah shoving might be best, but the fact the he can call with worse is not enough by itself. He can also call with better. The question is, when he does call, are you winning more often than losing.

That depends on what hands he'll lead the turn and call a raise with and then lead the river again.

Thankfully OP didn't give reads because multitabling live games they are hard to pick up. So, in a vacuum, for 100bb against bad players, I'm shoving with top two and fist pumping when I get instacalled because non sets >>>>> sets.

Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $109.50
UTG: $95.30
Hero (MP): $104.10
CO: $135.60
BTN: $78.75
SB: $69.40

Pre Flop: Hero is MP with A Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, CO raises to $12, 1 fold, SB calls $11.50, 1 fold, Hero thinks about squeezing

CO stats are something like 27/24/4 and the SB is unknown.

I have a very good read on CO that he is looking for situations like this to raise with position and I suspect he knows I'm opening fairly wide. I also believe he can fold.

My only read on the SB is he's played a lot of pots since sitting down, mostly limping and limp/calling. (Maybe 80% of his hands over ~ 15 hands.) He hasn't been in a 3-bet situation prior to this hand.

Does this look like a good spot to squeeze?

Sounds like you can clearly make a small 4 bet and fold if CO felts it. He shouldn't do this lightly here.

If you think you are ahead of SB's calling and pushing ranges then it does sound good and you may well be. 80% is a lot of hands and he's short. He could go crazy with a lot of hands that you are ahead of.

Anyway, it's interesting that you can basically be bluffing the one guy and value betting the other.

No significant reads yet.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $97.25
SB: $186.70
BB: $61.55
UTG: $128.95
Hero (CO): $98.50

Pre Flop: Hero is CO with Q Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) 8 4 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB snap raises to $53.05 all in, Hero tanks....?

Fold faster?

I hate folding to weird lines like this, but what could he have that you beat here besides him going crazy with a naked FD? (unless you have any significant reads that say he is capable of bluffing on this type of board).

My point isn't that he would have needed to plan the bluff, it's that he played inconsistently. If it were in his nature to bluff, he would have done so on one of the two opportunities he had on the turn. Obviously there will be exceptions, but it does sharply decrease the odds that he's bluffing. If you asked me to guess, I'd say he had either a nine or A4, 64, 42, 43.

In that case, you should say in your OP that you realise that the standard line is bet/fold turn, but you wonder if there's a better way to play.

jbrochu:

Wait, so villain showed up with KJ and you're wondering if there's any value in betting?

Diamond Lie:

$20 looks like a really weak flop bet, the pot is like $48 right? I'd bet like 30 or 35. I realise it's a low draw board but I don't really want two opps calling for $20. As played river is easy, easy shove. You're probably looking at worse two pair. As Devin said, I am not just shoving but fistpumping if he instacalls because I still think I'm good.

jbrochu again:

This could go either way. If you were CO and CO was button I would definitely reraise. As it is I might fold because SB is so unpredictable and might show up with AK or stack off with a random pair (which decreases profits sharply compared to all fold). I would be fine with either decision though.

cha59:

Fold. Versus an unknown bet turn is good, but check is better vs some players. The free card isn't as bad as it looks because you pick up bluffs from drawing hands or check calls from made hands on blank rivers. Versus a lot of players you have almost nonexistent value on the turn, which is always a good reason to consider another course of action.

Devin,
In that KQ hand I like flop and turn now just check river again. I probably check and call people will make dumb bluffs here more than you think.
In that 54 hand snap call river. People will have missed draws so often. He has a better pair w/e... I can't imagine folding that river. If ytou were deeper I prob shove but I don't like it given stacks.
Cha,
Depends on reads but fold is prob fine against most, turn bet is good for sure IMO.
Jbrochu,
TT hand shove river 100% you have a set.
In the AQ hand meh call or fold. Unless you have a good read I generally give cold calls a lot of credit.

Why is the turn raise really gross?

I was wondering if anybody can call with worse on that board after the river. Just because he called with a hand that beats me doesn't mean he would have called with worse. I wasn't really questioning my bets on the flop and turn.

(Unless maybe I'm misunderstanding your point Chris?)

My hands...

KQs hand, I snap called and villain showed 86s.

45o hand I didn't snap call. But, I didn't think that long either. I just couldn't see what had he could check flop, c/c turn that he'd donk that river with. So, board being so drawy I called. Villain showed Q6dd.

My point is that he called the flop with KJo, which unless he has the Kh is an extremely loose call. If he had the Kh I retract. But in any case stuff like AT is definitely going to be in his range.

I wouldn't squeeze here even with your reads even though it may be tempting. Against one of their range you may be flipping but against both I'd say you are behind at least one. SB's action (regardless of his donkishness, screams QQ+). I wouldn't worry so much about CO - looks like that walrus guy who 3 bets every other hand.

I see this line once in a while and it's always a donk running it but I'm never sure how to respond. Villain is 32/0/0.5 but only 35 hands.


Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $100.00
Hero (MP): $146.35
CO: $120.95
BTN: $137.70
SB: $175.50
BB: $72.15

Pre Flop: Hero is MP with Q A
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, BB calls $3

Flop: ($8.50) 5 3 K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB calls $6

Turn: ($20.50) 9 (2 players)
BB bets $12, Hero doesn't buy it but what the hell can he do...?

Obviously the standard line is to fold. But, I often raise in this spot as I think it's often a weak pair like 88, A5 or something like that.

Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $175.45
CO: $20.00
Hero (BTN): $106.90
SB: $202.80
BB: $138.40

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with A 7
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($9.00) 6 7 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6.50, SB calls $6.50

Turn: ($22.00) 2 (2 players)
SB checks

Is this ever a good spot to check behind and hope they bluff out or are more inclined to call a river bet or is it better to keep firing? Is this completely opponent dependent?

This opponent was loose passive with a very low agression factor so I decided to double barrel, but then I wondered if even against a passive player a little deception might be better.

I've been raising these donk outs every time when its on the flop because you either win the pot or learn some valuable info about villain. However, I've just been folding when the donk lead is on the turn and it feels really weak.

I'd rather bet here. The 2 is a bad card to double barrel as a bluff on this board, because it doesn't really change anything. If his 44, 65, etc was good before he'll likely believe it is still good. I don't want to let a river kill any action I might get.

It sucks if he just peeled with Ax or two overs (which they often do), but you're only getting something if they hit.

Oh, good point thanks.

I hope this all sinks in and becomes second nature at some point.