STTF SNG -> Cash Thread #2

[NJD77]

Originally Posted by Deurdy

Yeah I prefer a shove here in hindsight.
Also how sure are you he cannot have KQs?
Additionally, how likely is he to flat a set 2 streets, that should count for something in the equasion.

I think the average 25nl 13/10 nit is dumping KQs pre a lot pre here especially given my 5x iso. I'm not totally sure but I'd say it's unlikely to be in his range.

I think it's very likely he flats 2 streets with QQ and fairly likely he flats 2 streets with the other sets. If the board was wetter or Ace high, then I could see him raising before the river, but here I think he'd just try to let me hang myself with his sets on a board this dry.

The more I think about it the more I think my c/f on the river was correct. I just can't see a shove being profitable on this river.

If you still like shove, can you give me an estimate on his range by the river.

[Deurdy]

If those are your reads, why are you betting the turn?

[crackedquads]

Live 5/10 30bb game. The table has only been open for about an hour. I'm the second deepest at the table with about $450, almost everyone else has $200-$300, and the guy on my right has about $600.

I'm BTN. The hijack is a weak semi reg and opens to $20. CO flats and I flat the BTN with Q J the sb and bb flat.

Flop: 6:spade Q 7

Sb and bb check, hijack leads for $25. CO flats and I make it $75. Sb, the only guy who covers me, tanks for a minute and just flats. Sb is short and calls all in. Hijack flats and co flat after a bit of deliberation. I'm sure I'm ahead of hJ and CO. Sbs flat is concerning though as he's semi competent and an decent hand reader. He has a huge leak of being way too passive post flop (open limped/called behind pre 3 times with AKs).

What's our play on the turn when turn is X?

[Ditch Digger]

Jfc, why did I ever leave florida.

[crackedquads]

Haha, also "guy on my right" who has me covered is actually on my left and the sb I was referring to.

[Deurdy]

Why do you raise flop?
If you're doing it for value why not just shove.
I really do not all these small raises in multiway pots in 30bb-games.

[crackedquads]

Obviously it's for value. Shoving $400 into a $150 pot with a meh top pair is going to fold out all the hands I want to call a raise with and get snapped off by better hands. I'll get called by many worse hands and have a larger pot to shove into on the turn which will give villains who are behind less horrible odds to call my jam. If I raise flop and get one caller that's a $275 pot which I can jam $325 into on the turn, if I get two callers it only gets better. I was not planning on 4 callers esp from a semi competent player who should know I have a hand here based on the flop action.

[Ditch Digger]

Originally Posted by Deurdy

Why do you raise flop?
If you're doing it for value why not just shove.
I really do not all these small raises in multiway pots in 30bb-games.

Well the guy bet 25 into 100 so I like the raise. I'd go bigger(135) and call anybody's shove except the guy that covers me.

[DevinLake]

raise seems mandatory...it's a I have a draw and please let me draw for $25 bet. B/c this happens so much at live poker and b/c they don't b/f these hands, you need to raise here...not to mention folding out other hands that have equity is a decent result.

[crackedquads]

I agree that a raise is best but feel like shoving is way overkill. What I'd like to debate about is what type of turn cards should we barrel on vs what turn cards we should slow down on after everyone and their mother flats our flop raise.

[DevinLake]

Here's an interesting one. This is 1/2 flex limit. Meaning, the max bet/raise at any time is $100.

Stacks:
Hero: $405
BTN: samish
UTG: covers
BB: $86

Hero is UTG+1 with KQ

UTG limps, Hero limps, no one raises and we end up 7 to the flop.

About pre: In these games, I pretty much always raise KQs here, but (and this is a bad reason) I was up $30 and leaving when I got to BB.

Flop ($14): J87
checks, Hero bets $12, folds, BTN raises to $42, sb folds, BB shoves for $84, UTG snap calls, Hero ????

reads:
BTN: old guy. loose passive. Gets to the turn with every hand he limps with. Donks out with top pair type hands. I won a good sized pot against him and UTG shortly before with KT on a KQxxx board because they both are terrible and BTN donked flop with K9, c/c turn.

BB: old guy. He's been tight. Haven't noticed anything other than the fact I haven't noticed anything.

UTG: middle aged guy, sat not long ago. Is terrible. In above mentioned hand he bluffed the river into two of us for $40 into a $200 pot with his busted fd+oesd. I saw him snap call down a weak Ax where a flush was possible and he should at least have to think about it. Just a guy that doesn't fold TP imo.

[Deurdy]

Ship it. If you're dead, ul gg.

[NJD77]

Not sure if I could stick with the rule of "don't go broke in limped pots" in this spot.

[Doublez-Down]

UTG limped aces trying to trap, btn is raising his AJ or set, who cares about BB he's so short...

Never folding the 2nd nuts there and probably doing a little dance before snapping.

[Ditch Digger]

With the SF there I think I convince myself that I should fold and kick myself for not raising pre. If you really decided to limp because you wanted to end your session up then I think you should avoid this high variance spot.

It's definitely one of those spots where you just need to go with your guts/reads and not second guess.