STTF SNG -> Cash Thread #2

[bones]

Originally Posted by xPeru

I'd like to have a go at this one, just to find out why I'm wrong ....

I think calling is marginally better than squeezing, because you can make such powerful hands with Q9s, and if I hit, I want someone to go with me to the river - conversely, it is easy to get seduced by the marginal hands which also hit leading to catastrophic reverse implied odds situations. So if you are not confident playing marginal hands post-flop, the squeeze is probably better.

As played, I hate the flop call, it's such a nasty board, that I like to try to take it down straight away. At 50nl, I figure a set or overpair will reraise me. Double gutshots are more likely to call my raise. So a good raise not only gives you a chance of taking the pot down, but can give you some valuable information about villain. Here, BB could well be calling with A5s for example, and so calling just gives a chance for either scare cards, or cards that will kill any further action. If turn is an A, your hand just can't stand the heat, so you will probably have to give away a free card to any draws.

Nothing else springs to mind re turn and river as played. Although, I might equally well check call as bet call, depending on what I have on villain's turn tendencies (normally, squadooosh!)

I wouldn't really consider Q9s a hand that can make powerful hands. It's hard to make straights, and they are going to be dominated by AQ, which is a possible holding in a raised pot pf.

The only double gutter here is 73...

[ChrisV]

Originally Posted by bones

I wouldn't really consider Q9s a hand that can make powerful hands. It's hard to make straights, and they are going to be dominated by AQ, which is a possible holding in a raised pot pf.

Ya I was going to write this and that it makes flushes which can be dominated but I was too lazy.

[Jbrochu]

In Dave's hand MP is a TAG regular and CO is loose passive so I don't think it's a great spot to squeeze. The risk is too high that MP really has a hand, and CO prolly isn't folding enough preflop. You don't hate it if MP folds and CO calls but still, preflop FE is a big part of why squeezing is profitable and I don't think you have enough here.

Much better squeeze imo if MP is something like 23/18 and CO is 16/14 or whatever.

[DevinLake]

Originally Posted by Jbrochu

MadSci - I agree thin value is extremely important. I don't think merging your range is all that valuable at lower buyins though, at least for the purpose of making yourself harder to play against. Sometimes you just end up value towning yourself.

If you aren't value towning yourself sometimes, you have a leak. Just because you sometimes run into the top of their range, doesn't mean it wasn't the right bet.

[DevinLake]

Originally Posted by dipstikdave

mp is a 17/14 reg. co is loose passive, bb is lag. pf would squeezing or folding have been better? on the flop i don't have enough hands on co or bb to know their postflop tendencies, so i just called to see how the hand developed.


Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $51.40
BB: $40.65
UTG: $90.95
MP: $57.20
CO: $37.65
Hero (BTN): $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with Q 9
1 fold, MP raises to $2, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2, 1 fold, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($8.25) 5 6 9 (4 players)
BB checks, MP checks, CO bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50, BB calls $2.50, MP folds

Turn: ($15.75) 8 (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $9.75, BB raises to $25, CO calls $25, Hero calls $15.25

River: ($90.75) 3 (3 players)
BB bets $11.15 all in, CO calls $8.15 all in, Hero calls $11.15

check the turn, with the intention of folding the river. On a board like this 7x is so likely, especially with two villains. There is no reason to really believe your hand is good at this point, and I don't think this is a good spot to bluff.

edit: forgot to talk about preflop. Q9s is like about as borderline of a playable hand that I will call with in certain situations here. It does have some postflop value, so it's not necessarily bad to call it.

However, this really isn't the spot regardless of my image. The villain is just tighter than I would like to be playing this hand. Q9s doesn't have a enough postflop value imo to justify playing against a tighter players range just with the hope of flopping big, when you are going to be reluctant to make moves with out a big draw. I'd want QJs and or maybe QTs that can flop just that little bit better than Q9s.

If he was looser, like 22/18 or something I'd play this hand most times unless my image is shot. And I don't think it really makes a difference whether you just call or squeeze. My decision on squeezing would be more based on the cold callers style than the opener.

[DevinLake]

I don't have much of a history with this guy. pretty taggy stats, 22/17/4.4.

Party Poker $200 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $200.00
BTN: $276.45
SB: $115.90
BB: $227.50
Hero (UTG): $504.10

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, BTN calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($17.00) A 6 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $14, BTN calls $14

Turn: ($45.00) T (2 players)
Hero bets $40, BTN calls $40

River: ($125.00) Q (2 players)
Hero ????

[Jbrochu]

Although it's kind of gross I think I would bet about $70 and fold to a shove.

[MadScientist]

Devin, I think I like a bigger bet to like 100 or even 110 and fold to a shove. He's taggy so he should not have a set there. The only worse hand he could shove for value is AQ and there are way more flushes. The Flush Draws don't have overcards so I can see him just calling with them.

[ChrisV]

I'd just check fold to a big bet. If he bets, about the only hand we beat is 54. He's going to have a flush a giant amount of the time. The problem with putting him on an ace is that with those stats, if he flatted an ace in position preflop, it's extremely likely to be a suited ace, which means he now has the nuts.

Anyway bet fold is clearly no good. It's virtually impossible for him to have a hand that can call. AQ and AK would presumably have reraised preflop and I doubt AJ is calling (if he flats AJo to a raise, which with those stats is in doubt). If you want to show the hand down, check call and hope he has 54 or 88 which he has turned into a bluff or some such.

[DevinLake]

I don't see how b/f can be clearly no good, and c/c can be.

Your argument is he can't call with worse but we can hope like hell he turns a made hand into a bluff. I don't see that as being anymore likely than him call with a worse hand. At least with b/f we set the price.

[ChrisV]

Your argument is he can't call with worse but we can hope like hell he turns a made hand into a bluff. I don't see that as being anymore likely than him call with a worse hand.

Um, OK. What hands do you think he might have? There aren't many combos of AQ and AJ and I'd take some of them out because I don't think he often plays them this way (especially not AQ which I would expect a guy this aggro to always threebet). Also I don't think he'll call with AJ. 54s I think he always plays this way and always bluffs when checked to.

Anyway it's kind of a moot argument, because if he hardly ever bets worse hands when checked to, then we should fold when he bets, and if he hardly ever calls with worse, then we should not value bet. That leaves check fold. (I also dislike a blocking bet because it is incredibly transparent and a guy this aggro will bluffraise it given the opportunity. I know I would.)

Edit: To clarify, my argument isn't that check call is good, just that it's marginally better than b/f.

[GtrHtr]

The obvious choice is to b/f but it is somewhat awkward for some reason when I first saw it. The thing is, a 22/17/4.4 would raise a fd or sd on the flop no? A 35/9/1.5 would call. So the other things in his range are marginal A's like A9o or broadway like QJs or KJo and pairs he wouldn't always 3 bet like 88 or below. He'd fold KJo like hands on the turn even if he was floating and small pairs unless he was on level 4 thinking, raise any broadway h's, sc h's cause they all hit the flop hard. That leaves Axo or a poorly played 88 or 99 and a small chance he played a draw passively. I like a c/c better than a b/f because given his likely range, we have a fair amount of showdown value but I wouldn't want to get blown off my hand by a opportunistic or well thought out bluff.

[DevinLake]

Originally Posted by ChrisV

Um, OK. What hands do you think he might have? There aren't many combos of AQ and AJ and I'd take some of them out because I don't think he often plays them this way (especially not AQ which I would expect a guy this aggro to always threebet). Also I don't think he'll call with AJ. 54s I think he always plays this way and always bluffs when checked to.

Anyway it's kind of a moot argument, because if he hardly ever bets worse hands when checked to, then we should fold when he bets, and if he hardly ever calls with worse, then we should not value bet. That leaves check fold. (I also dislike a blocking bet because it is incredibly transparent and a guy this aggro will bluffraise it given the opportunity. I know I would.)

Edit: To clarify, my argument isn't that check call is good, just that it's marginally better than b/f.

Yea, I'm not going to tell you what I think he'll call with because I wasn't saying b/f is good. I just don't see it being better than c/c. Because, as much as your saying he can't call with anything, I'm constantly surprised what tags at this level convince themselves to call with. And that 'surprising' part of their range, is about as likely as the bluff part of his range when checked to.

For the record, I do think c/f is probably best.

[ChrisV]

Originally Posted by GtrHtr

The obvious choice is to b/f but it is somewhat awkward for some reason when I first saw it. The thing is, a 22/17/4.4 would raise a fd or sd on the flop no? A 35/9/1.5 would call. So the other things in his range are marginal A's like A9o or broadway like QJs or KJo and pairs he wouldn't always 3 bet like 88 or below. He'd fold KJo like hands on the turn even if he was floating and small pairs unless he was on level 4 thinking, raise any broadway h's, sc h's cause they all hit the flop hard. That leaves Axo or a poorly played 88 or 99 and a small chance he played a draw passively. I like a c/c better than a b/f because given his likely range, we have a fair amount of showdown value but I wouldn't want to get blown off my hand by a opportunistic or well thought out bluff.

Raising a bare flush draw here (something like KJhh) isn't that great an idea because if you get threebet you have to fold, and you can just float instead and achieve more or less the same thing. And if he has AXhh, which I think is actually his most likely hand, then raising is definitely a really bad idea because it turns the "made hand" portion of your hand into a bluff and reduces it to just the flush draw. That's not to say that this guy wouldn't raise those hands, just that you shouldn't assume he will. My AF is something like 3.5, which is well within the margin of error here, and I would definitely not be raising AXhh.

I also think putting him on AXo is a bit of a stretch, the difference between his VPIP and PFR is only 5% and that 5% is not going to be made up of hands like AXo, possibly with the exception of X = J. Even A9o he calls here 0% of the time, there are simply no good flops for the hand short of A9x, the reverse implied odds are through the roof.

[Jbrochu]

Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $301.15
BB: $105.60
UTG: $77.85
Hero (CO): $103.00
BTN: $106.25

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with T 9
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6.50) T 5 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.50, BB raises to $16, Hero calls $11.50

Turn: ($38.50) 9 (2 players)
BB bets $25, Hero calls $25

River: ($88.50) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...?


No stats and no reads yet.