I agree. And couple that with there aren't many hands he gets to the river with that he would now bluff with and I think it makes this river a c/f situation.

Ah I see now, I missed the intent of your question.

We've been short handed for a while, 3 handed for much of it. A combination of being card dead and on the phone has led to me not playing back at this guy at all. He's been stealing a lot from the BTN. He's 22/19/3.

Party Poker $400 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BB): $402.00
CO: $400.00
BTN: $467.33
SB: $474.30

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with Q K
1 fold, BTN raises to $13, 1 fold, Hero raises to $45, BTN calls $32

Flop: ($92.00) Q A 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($92.00) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($92.00) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $65, BTN raises to $188, Hero calls $123

Villian is unkown. No stats, no reads. I steal a lot!

Party Poker $400 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $118.00
UTG: $420.50
MP: $400.00
CO: $384.00
Hero (BTN): $527.30
SB: $318.50

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with 4 5
3 folds, Hero raises to $14, 1 fold, BB calls $10

Flop: ($30.00) 9 2 J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($30.00) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $22, BB calls $22

River: ($74.00) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $40, Hero ????

I can see why you checked the flop but after he checks behind I like leading the turn. As played his line doesn't make much sense to me unless he has exactly 22 so I guess I would also call.

To me this looks a lot more like a medium pair that realizes he's good than a missed draw. He doesn't have to be bluffing a missed draw much though given your odds so I think calling is +EV.

Yea, I'd typically lead the turn. But, it's not for value imo but to protect my hand. I think I have to fold to a raise if I lead the turn, and I don't expect him to call more than one street with a worse hand anyway.

reasoning?

I'm just assuming even unknown players at nl400 are more aggressive with their draws and would either lead the turn after you checked behind on the flop, or would raise or fold the turn instead of calling since their pot odds are not that great and they can't suspect their implied odds are very good in this spot.

Missed draws are still in his range but I'm guessing his hand is something like 77 or 88.

Well, unknowns sitting on 30bbs at 400nl are probably just as bad as the majority of 25nl players, they just have more money.

Ha ha - and that's why you're playing nl400 and I'm just trying to break into nl100. I didn't notice his stack size...

I think you are right though, his is certainly a weak made hand a lot of the time. Which would mean I'd raise this river bet a lot if he was deeper.

In this spot, I don't think he's folding any thing but missed draws if I shove the other half of his stack in.

Your hand reminded me of a hand I played last night against an unknown where I was really unsure about the river. I decided to bet/fold but maybe check/call would have been better since it looks impossible for him to call with a worse hand (even though he did, lol).

I'm guessing you would have raised me here on the river....



Poker Stars $1.00/$2.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BB): $200.00
UTG: $245.00
CO: $196.00
BTN: $199.00
SB: $200.75

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with 5 5
2 folds, BTN raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero calls $5

Flop: ($15.00) 6 6 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $11, Hero calls $11

Turn: ($37.00) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($37.00) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $20, BTN calls $20

MadScientist:

I really hate the turn checkraise, for three reasons. Firstly you're tipping your hand to him too early. The c/r is a real power move in this situation and even a bad player is liable to fold hands that have no outs like one pair. I would just bet. Secondly, he is likely to check behind with one pair hands where he would have called a bet. The other thing is that you might set yourself up for a nasty situation on the river, as actually happened. I sometimes check this river, but vs a 53%/1.7 aggro guy would probably tend to bet. Versus anyone sane you are not getting calls from one pair hands, so bluffcatching and trying to minimise losses vs a draw that got there is the best option. But if this guy will pay off with one pair you should obv bet.

Devin:

KQhh hand: I would bet/fold the turn. The problem with check is that you obviously can't check raise, check fold is too weak, and check call basically turns your hand face up (that is, KQ or something like AJ or AT) as you would not run that line with a strong hand. This clears the way for him to bet on the river and force you out. I don't actually mind check calling both streets, so extra credit if that was your plan. As played the river is really read dependent.

45o hand: Huh? You figure your opponent checked the flop and turn and then called so he could run some river bluff? He has a hand for sure and yours is horrible so you should fold. The only other option is to turn your hand into a bluff and raise. This could work, but I still don't like it much.

Jbrochu:

I would probably check/fold this river since there's little chance my opponent will bet unpaired overcards. He will be expecting me to call. I don't like betting as there's nothing my opponent can put me on that he beats if he has a hand worse than mine. Apparently yours managed to though.

Sometimes as soon as I realize there is a good chance my hand is best I immediately bet without really thinking about if betting is appropriate and what I'm trying to accomplish. On this hand, I thought about it a bit and still managed to bet but after reviewing my session realized betting was pretty bad even though the results were good.

I still think c/c might be better than c/f (if the river bet is a reasonable size) because a lot of players instictively bet when they have no other way to win the pot.

Incidently, I think this hand getting shown down helped me win a monster pot against a solid player a few hands later so I was double lucky...

I've got a general question for those who have worked their way up through the limits at 6-max cash: Should I be worried that all my winnings so far up to nl100 come from showdown winnings?

I see the really good players post their end-of-month graphs and so much of their winnings are made from pots that don't reach showdown. Obviously, the lower the level the less your non-showdown winnings are likely to comprise a significant portion of your overall winnings, but at what level should should the balance start to flip?

I know this is also dependent on playing style but I would just like to get a general feel for things and hopefully avoid becoming the next fgators.

My green line is still slightly below my red and blue lines. I am a bit of a nit, and it's definitely suboptimal but not a massive deal.

One thing you should realise is that while people generally see this as being about bluffing and aggression, how thin your value bets are is part of it too. Take the hand above. You bet the river, where I would have checked. You happened to get an opponent who called, but most of the time what would happen is that your opponent would fold and mine would check behind. This pot would therefore be registered as a "non showdown win" for you and a "showdown win" for me. The fact that it has therefore helped you raise your green line doesn't necessarily make it a good play.

I think it's natural for a nit's green line (I run at like 15.5/11) to be low, because I run a ton of pot control and trapping lines, since aggressive players like to attack me. IMO when people say that a green line shouldn't be too low, all they are really doing is reiterating the fact that optimal strategy is to play looser before the flop than players with a low green line typically do. Even this doesn't necessarily mean it's the most profitable strategy - for instance, I am able to play many more tables running at 15.5/11 than I would be able to if I were running at say 25/20.

My green is well below my red and blue lines also. I am also a nit and take lines like Chris suggests - checking behind rather than making a super thin value bet on the river sometimes. I don't play quite as tight as Chris preflop though. I have nothing else to add but I thought you might be interested John.

ChrisV,

45 hand, I agree he wouldn't c/c the turn with the intent of bluffing the river. But, does that mean he can't c/c the turn and then bluff the river? What I'm saying is the majority of players don't think about what's going to happen on the next street. They do not play with a plan. This guy is definitely a guy that doesn't plan his hands.

KQ hand. Bet folding the turn is my standard. This comment has nothing to do with your response.... Often the most interesting hands to post come after some one did something that was not standard. This is one of my pet peeves with 2p2. I often won't post a hand that I didn't play standard, because I usually know what the standard line is and don't need 10 others to tell me that, while ignoring the interesting/difficult part of the hand. Again, just my general 2p2 rant, not directed at you Chris.

jbrochu,

I think ur EV graph situation is standard. Holds true for me, so I hope it is

Villain is loose and very very passive both preflop and postflop. (Something like 40/2/.05)

Should I even be thinking about betting for value on this river and if so how much?


Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $49.50
BB: $51.90
UTG: $52.35
MP: $55.30
CO: $50.95
Hero (BTN): $53.65

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with T T
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, MP calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.25) A 8 T (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $5.50, MP calls $5.50

Turn: ($18.25) Q (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $12, MP calls $12

River: ($42.25) 3 (2 players)
MP checks

jbrochu,

Hellz yeah. All you can eat.

Ha ha - ok cool. I got stacked by KJo lol...

Edit: but I didn't just post because of results oriented bad beat. I was unsure if value betting was correct.

This hand was live at Commerce. Blinds are 1/3, I have 350 behind me, villain has 300.

PF: AQ

I raise to $12 from MP after 1 limper, I get 3 callers.

Flop: Q74
checked to me, I lead for $20. Both call.

Turn: Q74A
UTG+1 leads for $25, I raise to $100, he flat calls

River: Q74A9
UTG+1 leads out for $40 (wtf?)

I'd shove. If he has a set, so be it. You have top two and he can definitely call with worse.

He'll call with worse, but the question is how likely he is to have worse. These live games are often very passive. I'm not saying you should think about folding of course.

The river bet looks like a blocker, but people have bad bet sizing live.

The range of hands he can have that can call a raise swing from being ahead or behind you pretty significantly depending on what you think the worst hands he can play this way are.