Do all those lines eventually converge on 100%?

I think the "profit distributionn" graph besides the first graph shows how reasonable it is to run X above or below expectations, obv (though sample size is limited really for the outlyers or whatever). I think you can say it would be VERY unlikely to run more than likely 20% off your true expectation over 5000 sngs just based on the first graph where the worst sample was still +ROI.

this is neat

fyp

Actually after some thinking and a little testing my post is extremely inaccurate, I think for 9% true ROI would run at -2% maaaaybe once in a million samples. So much worse than that is very unlikely IMO.

So, the conclusion of this thread is that it's best to play at the limit in which your ROI is highest and that a downswing is inevitable, correct?

I'm pretty sure that the conclusion of this thread was that we should all learn cash... that, and that it really is possible that I can drop $700 in one hour of 27s and still might not suck at poker.

Nah just play where your hourly is highest and be prepared for sickening swings.

And you think that can't happen in cash? Or more?

If you played 32 x $27's in that hour - what cash level would that equate to?

Assuming a 100 buyin bankroll for SNGs 100nl would be the most comparable cash game. And yes $700+ downswings can and do happen there

Ok, thank you for the clarification.

it can happen in 21 minutes imo.

QFT, QFT

All of this info on variance is great, however I would like to make a point on upswings also.

If I am a proven 10% roi sng player, I have tremendous odds in my favor. Much like a casino taking a small edge to grind gramblers down to nothing, 10% roi is a big deal. I do not have actual stats but I imagine a 50 BI downswing is probably equally as likely as a 150 BI upswing, after all
I am a winning player.

Keep in mind 10% Roi only needs 10 sngs to make 1 Buyin. Seeing a chart of a5000 sample size would generate 500 buyins. Unless your run of bad luck comes quickly, your profits should be able to withstand the downswing when comes. Unless of course you are living off the profits with a flat bankroll. Then the downswing will be trouble.

this is amazing thread, cant believe i didnt see this b4... 20 buyin downswings are very common if u start 20 tabling and putting in volume... two back to back bad sets and gg...