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Was the shove a mistake? .50 50/50 Was the shove a mistake? .50 50/50
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03-30-2015 , 04:09 PM
#1
Mercury
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centurion
Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 126
    Poker Stars, $3.30 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 50 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #35740241

    Hero (SB): 3,141 (7.9 bb)
    BB: 5,682 (14.2 bb)
    UTG: 1,955 (4.9 bb)
    MP: 937 (2.3 bb)
    CO: 1,900 (4.8 bb)
    BTN: 1,385 (3.5 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with Q 9
    4 folds, Hero raises to 3,091 and is all-in, BB calls 2,691

    Flop: (6,482) 2 8 K (2 players, 1 is all-in)
    Turn: (6,482) 3 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
    River: (6,482) A (2 players, 1 is all-in)

    Spoiler:
    Results: 6,482 pot
    Final Board: 2 8 K 3 A
    Hero showed Q 9 and lost (-3,141 net)
    BB showed K K and won 6,482 (3,341 net)



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    Was the shove a mistake? .50 50/50 Quote
    03-31-2015 , 04:41 AM
    #2
    Mercury
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    centurion
    Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 126
    ICMizer says fold, http://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/#SLMz
    Was the shove a mistake? .50 50/50 Quote
    03-31-2015 , 04:54 AM
    #3
    LeaksSuck's Avatar
    LeaksSuck
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    old hand
    Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 1,859
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mercury
    ICMizer says fold, http://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/#SLMz

    What ICMizer actually says is:

    Fold is optimal under the following assumptions:

    - BB will call the hands that the suggested 40% range consists of
    - You only have the options "push" and "fold"
    - There is no future play
    - There is no skill difference
    - ICM is the best method of assigning value to chipstacks

    Make of this what you want
    Was the shove a mistake? .50 50/50 Quote
    03-31-2015 , 05:02 AM
    #4
    Mercury
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    centurion
    Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 126
    Thanks for the reply! I think he's probably calling around 30% range and surely if I push there can be no future play? Do you know of any better model than ICM for assigning chip value?
    Was the shove a mistake? .50 50/50 Quote
    03-31-2015 , 05:25 AM
    #5
    LeaksSuck's Avatar
    LeaksSuck
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    old hand
    Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 1,859
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mercury
    surely if I push there can be no future play?
    I guess you'll win some % of the time when you push and get called, s.t. there must be some kind of future play with probability > 0
    Was the shove a mistake? .50 50/50 Quote
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