running 3k or so above ev line
also running about 30 bi belove ev line
(for the hands i have logged)

guess i run better at higher stakes, time to play some 1k sng's

5.5k 16's 1k 27's 500 38's and like 50 60's/114's

There seems to be a huge amount of negativity towards the HEM SNG EV line, and i have no idea why. Im much happier to see an EV line of 12% and an actual winnings of 8% than the other way around, because it is calculating how much equity you gain from SNG all in situations using ICM which as any good player knows is the maths we use to beat SNGs.

This actually has more use in SNGs than it does in cash games as cash games expose the EV line flaw much more often in that it only calculates your EV when you go all in, not your EV from previous betting rounds where u may be a huge favorite. This does happen in SNGs as well however a vast majority of SNG all ins occur preflop in the late game, and since so many SNG all ins are 50/50, 60/40 and 70/30 its very easy to have huge swings up or down and this makes it difficult to gauge an accurate ROI unless you have stats for 10k games+. The HEM EV line will give you a far better estimation of ROI a lot sooner so this surely had to be a good thing.

A final word on the above example is that you dont just inherit a big stack. When the SNG starts you all have the same equity so if players have been eliminated and stack sizes have changed then players have gained and lost EV to get to the point of the game you refer to. So i dont for one minute know why people have such blatant disregard for something that gives you a much more accurate way of looking at your SNG success as apposed to you actual winnings graph which will expose the HUGE SNG variance and give u a far more distorted reading of short term success or failure.

it sucks, nobody likes it and we all hate it

Story of my life.


Sorry, that's about all I can contribute to this thread.

I don't take the ev line into account, just focus on making +ev plays and everything is good in the end

Red lines can't buy you stuff.

Yes Matty, but when u make 8% and run at 2% dont spend it 2 quickly, your due to come crashing back down anytime soon ;-)

I always wondered why people even look at it, there is so much going on behind that the EV line cant show.

Somehow I'm still winning even though 9 out of 10 sessions the red line is above the green line. Do we totally trust the red line? It seems like it's always way above or barely below the green line. Does anyone have charts where the green line is way above? I still think there's a .001% chance PS is rigged to favor crappy/euro/new players.

im kinda tired of hearing this. who are you? how do you speak for all of us?
maybe fyp to "it sucks, nobody likes it and all us breakeven lowstakes grinders hate it"

i love the EV line. i KNOW its not super accurate or super meaningful. its still meaningful. i still love it. it gives me hope when things are down and keeps me grounded when im on fire. what more do you want?

Ronny - we know. but there is still solid, valuable information being transmitted via the red line! just cause it doesnt tell us EVERYTHING makes it useless?

and as for Q.., i like where your heads at Q. thatd be an interesting adjustment for headsup EV calc.

but are you saying that in HU most ev comes from setups, or that in entire sngs most EV comes from setups after reaching HU?

i just like is cause for me it seems to be right inline

suzzer, your ev line and $$ line are random walks that are correlated. say you started looking at it only 1k hands ago, you might actually be running above the red line for said amount of time. i actually haven't bothered to examine ur graph closely but i'm just saying.

I dont know, I dont use it and Im not 100% sure how it exactly it works. But what for informations do you draw from it? Maybe you can change my mind.

I'm asking if we 100% trust the red line. If you looked at a bunch of your sessions would you expect the red line to be above/belowthe green line 50% of the time and by about the same scattering of amounts above or below? Or is there something in HEM that makes the red line appear above the green more often and higher than it usually gets lower? (IE - it can be way above, but it's never way below)

wow...finally a real question in this thread instead of bemoaning a cooler hand

ok every single winning poker player i know runs below expectation online including one guy who is probably the best 200nl cash grinder in the world so here are my theories not sure which one gets the most credit but this is kinda bothering me

A) the program is not truly random sure it's been tested yada yada yada but i seriously doubt there is a perfect RNG and therefore if you add all the players together thru all the hands the lines will never converge

B) it's rigged to help out the fish a little

C) good players will always run below expectation because they win without showdown more frequently and suckout less often because they are ahead more often when the cards are flipped over so running below expectation is a sign you are a good player

can't think of any others

I still dont get what you dont understand about red line.

for example if we had 5 races 80/20 (AA vs 22) in HU and won 4 of them,than red line will be exact like green line.

if you lose 3 times and win 2, green line will be below
etc

what are you talkin about? showdowns? Coolers? wtf? its just allin luck and the only one stuff that can hurt it imo, when you raised 99% of your stack and went allin for the rest chips on the flop.

I understand the concept. I'm questioning the application. It seems like the red line is above the green more often, and farther above. Like maybe 1 session out of 10, when I actually feel like I am running balls hot (which means you are seriously running hot) will the green line actually be above the red. Now either I am running epically bad in showdowns since HEM started showing the red line, or it's not being calculated right, or there's some other effect causing the red line to always be too high for winning players or something. I'm asking if everyone else sees roughly the same thing.

To me it's C) is the only realistic possibility. But in theory even if you are ahead and hold a little more often than expectation, that should show up in the equity.

Another possibility is that HEM isn't quite calculating it right.

OK well it's good/annoying to see some graphs in this thread with the green line at or above the red line.

I think another possibility might be a selection bias in that the other people with high green lines might not be checking their HEM graph much, or seeking out and posting in threads like these.

do u have ur lifetime sng graph? all 60k sngs?

no but i could start importing I guess

It's just the nature of a random walk: some people will tend to run above the line and others below.

For example: my graph of SNGs played at Party shows the exact opposite phenomenon to what you have observed and are asking about:

Using HEM


Using my own code


The most likely reason for the "red line above green line" phenomenon is simply that people who are running bad are much more likely to seek out (and discuss) the $EV_luck stuff - whereas those who are running hot don't care. I've not seen any indication of a long term bias in either my own 65k SNG sample nor in any of the huge "fake" sub-samples I tested it on (see the "BumpKing running bad" thread for an explanation of the method...) when I first wrote the $EV_luck code.

Juk

I would definitly do this as just looking at a "section" of the graph can be very misleading overall: If I just look at the SNGs I've played since March (starting around game 60k - I've not played very much for the last 2 months...) then it appears I've done terrible, but when I look at the whole thing I can see that I'm almost exactly even and the recent bad luck just cancels an earlier heater.

Juk

Well I've just been looking at everything since I got my new computer (and has been imported into the new HEM with the luck stuff). So it's not like I was cherry-picking the date I started running bad. I am importing the old stuff now. Looks like it's going to take a while.

Also I seem to have lost half of 2008 and maybe a few others. Looks like I'm at something like 30k sngs lifetime (but missing a few). No idea where I was getting 60k. I thought I looked it up one time and was at 50k. So I was adding 10 since then.

This will also include 2005 when I really sucked and 2006 when I largely sucked. Should be interesting.