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Old 02-25-2012, 11:43 PM   #1111
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Re: ***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread***

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Originally Posted by emitnulB View Post
The most frustrating part is that I emailed them last night essentially explaining the problem in the same way as I did in this thread and they sent me back a response acting like I don't know what luck adjusted EV is, so now I either have to give up or thumb through my database and come up with a bunch of examples where the EV is wrong and somehow convince them that they need to fix the problem.
I can imagine that they do get a lot of daft e-mails though so can't really blame them.

One thing that might help is IIRC HEM dumps a log file somewhere of the all-in EV calculations - you could try creating a new DB with just some key HH files imported and then send them the HH files and the log explaining the problem that way.

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Old 02-25-2012, 11:45 PM   #1112
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Re: ***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread***

Yeah just looked and the log is stored in "C:\Program Files\Holdem Manager\Logs\evLog.txt" (be careful opening the file if it's very big! Notepad locks up on 100MB+ files lol) and has a line starting with "Prizes" that displays the structure.

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Old 02-26-2012, 12:30 AM   #1113
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Re: ***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread***

Not only do you gusy waste time staring at the stupid red line you gotta discuss it at length too

Download Notepad++ if you need to open that file. Opens large files instantly unlike notepad which might take your computer down with it lol
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Old 02-26-2012, 12:42 AM   #1114
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Re: ***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread***

My log is too big even for notepad++ :/

Grunching a bit so not sure if this is exactly the same as what you're looking for in the log -- the structure used in the ICM calc via the hand replayer.

For example, here is an example where it's using 65/35 structure that should be 70/30. (Actual payouts are $21 and $9.)

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Old 02-26-2012, 11:44 AM   #1115
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Re: ***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread***

very thin i hit a royal brag

I agree Tomo, the amount of time ppl spending try to disprove AIEV or talking about what your redline "likes" and "doesnt like" is pretty funny.
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Old 02-26-2012, 12:32 PM   #1116
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I'm trying to see a counselor for my red line addiction. Unfort like all addictions it's hard to give up. I am hoping that moving to HEM2 can be the methadone for my addiction. I just can't go cold turkey
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Old 02-26-2012, 12:41 PM   #1117
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And for the record I an running 1.5% below the red line (So I feel better if it's accurate). I only have 2K sample of DoNs though they are prob te lowest variance game possible
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Old 02-27-2012, 12:37 AM   #1118
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Re: ***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread***

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Thank you very much for posting that. Seems like quite a good blog overall, not sure if it's yours but kudos. Anyway, good explanation of the redline, and how it's calculated. Stands to reason that a viewpoint of "it's still subject to a lot of variance, but less than you actual results" seems wise.

I do still have some questions that perhaps someone could shed some light on. How is the redline effected by:

1. Hands that don't go to showdown (ie hero raises pre, cbets, and fold to a flop checkraise, hero raises and fold to a 3b preflop, hero raises and wins the pot preflop, ect) I would assume in these instances our equity obv changes, and the redline and green line should change the same amount. I guess I'm just stating a fact here, hoping no one disagrees with me. Obv EV diff is always 0 w/ no showdown.

2. Now what happens when the money goes in street by street. For instance say we open AA and get flatted. We elect to bet bet shove a board of 852K7 and get called down by 77 and lose. What happens with our equity. What if we take the same line with AA vs 77 on 752KA? Is all the equity calculated when the $ goes in? Take an extreme example. I get all but 1chip on the flop with a 9out flush draw. My opponent calls with all but 1 of his chips. He has top set. The turn he donks his remaining t1 and I've hit my flush. How/when is equity calculated?

What I've always heard is that these situation even out over time, although I'm not 100% sure they do. Different play styles could cause this. Say you bet bet shove you starting stack on most board textures in a hyper, and another player pot pots to get stacks in by turn. If equity is calculated when $ goes in (And i'm admitting I'm not sure if it is or isn't) well then the player whoe gets the money in on 2 streets figures to have a positive redline in every instance where his hand is vs an opponent hand that isn't folding at any point but improves to the best hand by river. If hero is getting money in on 3 streets, then he gets his $ in drawing dead on all these same rivers, and his redline will not go up. I'm not saying that it's a fault with the redline per say, more just a consideration of how accurate a determinate of skill it is. Our hero betting 3 streets instead of 2 to get stacks in in these spots could be taking a more +EV line that gets weaker calls from villains holdings and valuetowns them better than the hero who pot pots, but every time the villain get there on the river in essentially the same situation we get drastically different results. Thoughts?

Another spot I'm curious about, is say it is proven by and ICM calculation to be profitable to shove ATC vs a certain villain in a certain spot. Now another player may be making a mistake by only shoving 90% in this same spot. That means I'm going to have the bottom 10% of hands occasionally getting called in spots where I lose a ton of equity with very much the worst hand. If I win, my redline is going to tank b/c I had 23o, and if I lose, the redline will go down almost as much as the green line, b/c I likely had very little positive equity. Is the idea here that if it TRUELY is profitable, all the extra blinds we pick up over time from our additional frequency shoving this 10% of hands will outweigh the occasional large losses and contribute to an overall increase in the redline over a large enough sample, relative to the same hero only shoving 90%? This would stand to reason, however it would take a fantastically large sample to come to fruition. If this is not the case then obv that's a problem.

Like i said, more accurate than results but still a ton of variance is probably a fair assessment of the HEM redline. I did see some very strange things while playing HU, but I don't have the examples to back it up. Perhaps, and hopefully, it was errors. I'd do more sessions of HU and see if I can recreate what I saw but atm I'm going for SNE with 6max and don't really have the time. If I get a chance to find any spots that defy logic I'll certainly post them ITT.

Last edited by OMGBarackObama; 02-27-2012 at 12:44 AM.
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Old 02-27-2012, 03:15 AM   #1119
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Re: ***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread***

tl;dr but redline improves accuracy of results irregardless of whether or not it is calculating correctly (70/30 vs 65/35 luck is still the same pretty much). It doesn't tell you how much you should have won or any of that, it just 'converges to the mean' faster than actual results. That's it. No more, no less.

Its not my blog. I hope the owner is not mad at me for posting it.

Last edited by Regret$; 02-27-2012 at 03:28 AM.
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Old 02-27-2012, 05:00 AM   #1120
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Re: ***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread***

If it didn't assume that every situation you are in is average than whats the point? Every game has its own situational luck. If the bluff you get it in with 0% equity is good 2/3 times that is reflected in the other 2 times that it works. It can't have any way of knowing how much anyone's range is so it assumes each spot is an average situation. If you find a way to be more or less down in any game than is possible it should average over time in all of the games.

So in your 77 example, there should be the other 43/45 times he doesn't 2 outter you. Where you win the pot legit (with 100% equity). Of course there is variance in how much you are 2 outtered. It is another type of luck which redline is not attempting to calculate.

It is only attempting to normalize all in ev because there is no way to know if someone would call on the river without their rivered 2 outter, so it is way too difficult to calculate. It is much more useful for it to assume all situations are average. This allows you to have a more accurate estimate over a shorter number of games than simply results.

Sorry if these responses coming off rude, I am really not trying to be rude but probably shouldn't have posted in this thread to begin with.
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Old 02-27-2012, 06:12 AM   #1121
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Re: ***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread***

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Originally Posted by Regret$ View Post
Sorry if these responses coming off rude, I am really not trying to be rude but probably shouldn't have posted in this thread to begin with.
I didn't think your responses were rude at all. I welcome informed discussion on the topic, I'm only trying to understand it better myself so I have an idea of how much weight to place on the data my redline is showing me..
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Old 03-02-2012, 08:58 AM   #1122
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Re: ***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread***

I'm playing the 3$ 6max turbo games on PP, and my red line just won't go up..
I know that 650 tourneys isn't much and that the variance is high,
but would there be any chance that HEM is calculating my red line incorrectly?
My red and green line are diverting more and more, although I don't get the impression that I'm running so super hot (obviously I'm running good just not that good), or that I'm playing that bad.
I mean, just knowing to play tight when the blinds are low and decent push/fold strategy towards the bubble should be enough to get an upgowing red line at these games I would assume, yet my line stays more or less flat.

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Old 03-02-2012, 10:56 AM   #1123
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Re: ***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread***

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Originally Posted by Roaz View Post
I'm playing the 3$ 6max turbo games on PP, and my red line just won't go up..
I know that 650 tourneys isn't much and that the variance is high,
but would there be any chance that HEM is calculating my red line incorrectly?
My red and green line are diverting more and more, although I don't get the impression that I'm running so super hot (obviously I'm running good just not that good), or that I'm playing that bad.
I mean, just knowing to play tight when the blinds are low and decent push/fold strategy towards the bubble should be enough to get an upgowing red line at these games I would assume, yet my line stays more or less flat.

That's a big difference but 650 is still a small sample. The red line is going to be close to accurate for what it measures. My advice is to use SNG wizard to review your bustout hands, sessions, etc. or even simpler try playing with the SNG quiz that comes built into HEM1. You're obv running good but that doesn't mean you're playing good or bad. So review hands and run them thru a tool or thru peers (because it's hard to spot our own leaks). and remember with 650 tourney you can be running bad in other spots that red line doesn't measure. Just focus on improving your game. GL
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Old 03-02-2012, 11:30 AM   #1124
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Re: ***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread***

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Originally Posted by vookenmeister View Post
That's a big difference but 650 is still a small sample. The red line is going to be close to accurate for what it measures. My advice is to use SNG wizard to review your bustout hands, sessions, etc. or even simpler try playing with the SNG quiz that comes built into HEM1. You're obv running good but that doesn't mean you're playing good or bad. So review hands and run them thru a tool or thru peers (because it's hard to spot our own leaks). and remember with 650 tourney you can be running bad in other spots that red line doesn't measure. Just focus on improving your game. GL
I did both of those things. Also read Collin Moshman's book and watched a ton of videos from deuces cracked/cardrunners. SNG wizard agrees with the vast majority of my pushes. I probably still fail to recognize some push opertunities, but I think I should be ok for the 3$ level.
It just frustrates me that that that damn red line stays so low. But better this than the other way around I guess..
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Old 03-02-2012, 11:37 AM   #1125
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Yes indeed. I'd say don't stress. Keep studying and be happy it's not the other way around. Not sure what ROI you have but you could b running higher than achievable by an expert. GL and consider moving up when your roll allows it
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