Thank you very much for posting that. Seems like quite a good blog overall, not sure if it's yours but kudos. Anyway, good explanation of the redline, and how it's calculated. Stands to reason that a viewpoint of "it's still subject to a lot of variance, but less than you actual results" seems wise.
I do still have some questions that perhaps someone could shed some light on. How is the redline effected by:
1. Hands that don't go to showdown (ie hero raises pre, cbets, and fold to a flop checkraise, hero raises and fold to a 3b preflop, hero raises and wins the pot preflop, ect) I would assume in these instances our equity obv changes, and the redline and green line should change the same amount. I guess I'm just stating a fact here, hoping no one disagrees with me. Obv EV diff is always 0 w/ no showdown.
2. Now what happens when the money goes in street by street. For instance say we open AA and get flatted. We elect to bet bet shove a board of 852K7 and get called down by 77 and lose. What happens with our equity. What if we take the same line with AA vs 77 on 752KA? Is all the equity calculated when the $ goes in? Take an extreme example. I get all but 1chip on the flop with a 9out flush draw. My opponent calls with all but 1 of his chips. He has top set. The turn he donks his remaining t1 and I've hit my flush. How/when is equity calculated?
What I've always heard is that these situation even out over time, although I'm not 100% sure they do. Different play styles could cause this. Say you bet bet shove you starting stack on most board textures in a hyper, and another player pot pots to get stacks in by turn. If equity is calculated when $ goes in (And i'm admitting I'm not sure if it is or isn't) well then the player whoe gets the money in on 2 streets figures to have a positive redline in every instance where his hand is vs an opponent hand that isn't folding at any point but improves to the best hand by river. If hero is getting money in on 3 streets, then he gets his $ in drawing dead on all these same rivers, and his redline will not go up. I'm not saying that it's a fault with the redline per say, more just a consideration of how accurate a determinate of skill it is. Our hero betting 3 streets instead of 2 to get stacks in in these spots could be taking a more +EV line that gets weaker calls from villains holdings and valuetowns them better than the hero who pot pots, but every time the villain get there on the river in essentially the same situation we get drastically different results. Thoughts?
Another spot I'm curious about, is say it is proven by and ICM calculation to be profitable to shove ATC vs a certain villain in a certain spot. Now another player may be making a mistake by only shoving 90% in this same spot. That means I'm going to have the bottom 10% of hands occasionally getting called in spots where I lose a ton of equity with very much the worst hand. If I win, my redline is going to tank b/c I had 23o, and if I lose, the redline will go down almost as much as the green line, b/c I likely had very little positive equity. Is the idea here that if it TRUELY is profitable, all the extra blinds we pick up over time from our additional frequency shoving this 10% of hands will outweigh the occasional large losses and contribute to an overall increase in the redline over a large enough sample, relative to the same hero only shoving 90%? This would stand to reason, however it would take a fantastically large sample to come to fruition. If this is not the case then obv that's a problem.
Like i said, more accurate than results but still a ton of variance is probably a fair assessment of the HEM redline. I did see some very strange things while playing HU, but I don't have the examples to back it up. Perhaps, and hopefully, it was errors. I'd do more sessions of HU and see if I can recreate what I saw but atm I'm going for SNE with 6max and don't really have the time. If I get a chance to find any spots that defy logic I'll certainly post them ITT.