***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread***

[beserious]

Originally Posted by jukofyork

Here is an example of how slightly wrong payouts effect the results:



These are just my last 500 or so games (don't have any more handy atm), but as you can see the use of a slightly wrong payout structure makes very very little difference.

Hopefully somebody else will better explain the reason why your play has no effect on all-in EV calculations. Although not in the context of tournaments, this thread might help.

Juk

Interesting, thanks for implementing and posting this Juk.

[Eldorian]

I have a question regarding the redline in HU SNG; I recently toyed around with ST HU stt on stars, only have ~200 games so far so probably its the small samplesize, but my redline precisely follows my greenline... as much as i would love for hem to award me 100% ev because I deserved to suck out ATs vs AK in one of the last games I played, it is not a mathematically satisfying explanation

Does the redline even work for HU SNG (I would not see why not)? Are stars HU SNG not implemented correctly (because hem does not recognize the speed of the tournaments correctly either)?


sorry if this has been answered before itt and thank you all in advance.

[konar]

Originally Posted by Eldorian

I have a question regarding the redline in HU SNG; I recently toyed around with ST HU stt on stars, only have ~200 games so far so probably its the small samplesize, but my redline precisely follows my greenline... as much as i would love for hem to award me 100% ev because I deserved to suck out ATs vs AK in one of the last games I played, it is not a mathematically satisfying explanation

Does the redline even work for HU SNG (I would not see why not)? Are stars HU SNG not implemented correctly (because hem does not recognize the speed of the tournaments correctly either)?


sorry if this has been answered before itt and thank you all in advance.

I think the HEM red line for Pokerstars STs in general does not work. Any cEV calculator should work fine for HU SNGs tho and produce relevant results(since there is no ICM to calculate).

[Eldorian]

Ok, thank you for the response, it is probably not relevant until i have a (much) larger sample, maybe hem (or hem II) will have caught up until then...

[Gramps]

Can anyone confirm that the payout, etc. is correct for the Stars HTs? I assume it is, but my graph has been going haywire since the HTs recently started working with the last update, and my newb arse isn't sure how to check to confirm.

[Eldorian]

it does work, but they occasionally miss results, have you checked if/how many of your tournaments are incomplete?

[vookenmeister]

I've been running cold in the high dollar DONs so I decided to review the numbers behind one of my failed $50 DONs.
In it I actually folded AQ shortly before the four hands you so below. I folded AQ because there were several shorties and the big stack was calling off
or shoving against any raise. it was a standard fold for many of you that read this thread...

In the four hands below, I actually sit on the rail semi-safe in chips while i watch all four shorties win an all in against the big stack.
I ended up losing later when i ran my A10 into AK (of course, standard shove though with monster blinds).

What ate me up is that it showed my EV from the tourney to be lower than I expected because it mostly captured the one hand where i ran A10 into AK but
didn't give any credit for those four times when the tourney almost ended and I would've won $100.

THis thread is so long. I read thru it years ago and don't recall seeing a good explanation. If there's one in here please just point me
to it, quickly summarize, tell me I'm an idiot or whatever.

so.... hold your breather because here goes my long winded question with hand examples...

one contention i have with the HEM tourney all in is that
it doesn't do a good job of calculating lost equity for hands
you don't play in SNGs near the bubble. Thus it really misses a lot of your bad luck
especially if you are playing smart on the bubble and folding
when there are shorties. This is most evident and important if you play DONs like I do (damn Black Friday)

below are 4 hands that occurred in almost near succession (there was one hand that was folded that i didn't include)
in all four hands there is a short stack all in.
in all four hands the short stack wins.

however, my EV difference is shown as marginal for each one. why?

If the shorties bust i immediately win $100. I would think
it could find a way to calculate that. Granted it might skew things and give me a crazy EV calculation if this happened
three times and then i finally won on the fourth. But perhaps the software could be written to go back when the tourney is over and shave out
the extra EV or am I just completely off base and lost???

anyways i think it shows how the red line misses some
crucial part of the SNGs esp DONs where it is smart to
completely avoid calling anything on the bubble since the top five are
split evenly (and of course u r shoving wide in return).

What am I misunderstanding?? it's painful to patiently fold big hands to shoves. While running bad, I at least would like the solace of staring at a pretty red line graph

-----

First hand...

here the super shorty ends up all in with K9 against TT
and it says i only gave up $4.48 in equity in my HEM

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Merge)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, November 15, 01:04:13 ET 2011
Table 50 NL Holdem Double Up 10 Handed (43583976) (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $1079.00 USD ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 40
Seat 3: Player3 ( $1461.00 USD ) - VPIP: 9, PFR: 7, 3B: 3, AF: 2.3, Hands: 3344
Seat 4: Player4 ( $497.00 USD ) - VPIP: 27, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 51
Seat 7: Player7 ( $7277.00 USD ) - VPIP: 35, PFR: 23, 3B: 16, AF: 3.3, Hands: 142
Seat 8: Player8 ( $1725.00 USD ) - VPIP: 12, PFR: 9, 3B: 3, AF: 0.7, Hands: 1371
Seat 9: Hero ( $1714.00 USD ) - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 2, AF: 3.4, Hands: 18840
Seat 10: Player10 ( $1247.00 USD ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 40
Player1 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player3 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player4 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player7 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player8 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Hero posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player10 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player3 posts small blind [$150.00 USD].
Player4 posts big blind [$300.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Qc 8c ]
Player7 calls [$300.00 USD]
Player8 folds
Hero folds
Player10 folds
Player1 folds
Player3 folds
Player4 calls [$182.00 USD]
Player7 calls [$182.00 USD]
Player4 shows [9s, Kc ]
Player7 shows [Tc, Th ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6d, 5s, 9c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Kd ]
** Dealing River ** [ Ac ]
Player4 wins $1219.00 USD from main pot


-------
here it says i gave up $3.72 in equity
here the big stack has KQ vs shorty's A5

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Merge)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, November 15, 01:04:44 ET 2011
Table 50 NL Holdem Double Up 10 Handed (43583976) (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $1064.00 USD ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 40
Seat 3: Player3 ( $1296.00 USD ) - VPIP: 9, PFR: 7, 3B: 3, AF: 2.3, Hands: 3344
Seat 4: Player4 ( $1219.00 USD ) - VPIP: 27, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 51
Seat 7: Player7 ( $6780.00 USD ) - VPIP: 35, PFR: 23, 3B: 16, AF: 3.3, Hands: 142
Seat 8: Player8 ( $1710.00 USD ) - VPIP: 12, PFR: 9, 3B: 3, AF: 0.7, Hands: 1371
Seat 9: Hero ( $1699.00 USD ) - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 2, AF: 3.4, Hands: 18840
Seat 10: Player10 ( $1232.00 USD ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 40
Player1 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player3 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player4 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player7 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player8 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Hero posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player10 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player4 posts small blind [$150.00 USD].
Player7 posts big blind [$300.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 8c 9d ]
Player8 folds
Hero folds
Player10 folds
Player1 raises [$1049.00 USD]
Player3 folds
Player4 folds
Player7 calls [$749.00 USD]
Player1 shows [Kh, Qs ]
Player7 shows [Ac, 5h ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8d, 2c, 9c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4s ]
** Dealing River ** [ 6d ]
Player7 wins $2353.00 USD from main pot


----------

Here it says i actually did $4.63 BETTER????
granted it is shorty's QQ against 1010 and i was BB
but still how could the shorty doubling up improve my expected equity better than it should have????
this one baffles me.

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Merge)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, November 15, 01:05:55 ET 2011
Table 50 NL Holdem Double Up 10 Handed (43583976) (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Seat 3: Player3 ( $1266.00 USD ) - VPIP: 9, PFR: 7, 3B: 3, AF: 2.3, Hands: 3344
Seat 4: Player4 ( $1039.00 USD ) - VPIP: 27, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 51
Seat 7: Player7 ( $8444.00 USD ) - VPIP: 35, PFR: 23, 3B: 16, AF: 3.3, Hands: 142
Seat 8: Player8 ( $1380.00 USD ) - VPIP: 12, PFR: 9, 3B: 3, AF: 0.7, Hands: 1371
Seat 9: Hero ( $1669.00 USD ) - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 2, AF: 3.4, Hands: 18840
Seat 10: Player10 ( $1202.00 USD ) - VPIP: 8, PFR: 7, 3B: 3, AF: 1.0, Hands: 192
Player3 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player4 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player7 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player8 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Hero posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player10 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player8 posts small blind [$150.00 USD].
Hero posts big blind [$300.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 7c 6d ]
Player10 raises [$1111.00 USD]
Player3 folds
Player4 folds
Player7 raises [$8429.00 USD]
Player8 folds
Hero folds
Player10 calls [$76.00 USD]
Player7 shows [Td, Th ]
Player10 shows [Qd, Qc ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9c, 5c, 2s ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2c ]
** Dealing River ** [ Jd ]
Player7 wins $7242.00 USD
Player10 wins $2914.00 USD from main pot


-----

last hand. says my expected equity should've been $5.27 better.
EV difference when if K8 wins the tourney is over

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Merge)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, November 15, 01:07:32 ET 2011
Table 50 NL Holdem Double Up 10 Handed (43583976) (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 3: Player3 ( $1251.00 USD ) - VPIP: 9, PFR: 7, 3B: 3, AF: 2.3, Hands: 3344
Seat 4: Player4 ( $1024.00 USD ) - VPIP: 27, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 51
Seat 7: Player7 ( $7242.00 USD ) - VPIP: 35, PFR: 23, 3B: 16, AF: 3.3, Hands: 142
Seat 8: Player8 ( $1215.00 USD ) - VPIP: 12, PFR: 9, 3B: 3, AF: 0.7, Hands: 1371
Seat 9: Hero ( $1354.00 USD ) - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 2, AF: 3.4, Hands: 18840
Seat 10: Player10 ( $2914.00 USD ) - VPIP: 8, PFR: 7, 3B: 3, AF: 1.0, Hands: 192
Player3 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player4 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player7 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player8 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Hero posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Player10 posts ante of [$15.00 USD].
Hero posts small blind [$150.00 USD].
Player10 posts big blind [$300.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 6h Jc ]
Player3 folds
Player4 raises [$1009.00 USD]
Player7 raises [$7227.00 USD]
Player8 folds
Hero folds
Player10 folds
Player4 shows [As, Qs ]
Player7 shows [Kc, 8d ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, Ts, 2c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5s ]
** Dealing River ** [ Ac ]
Player7 wins $6218.00 USD
Player4 wins $2558.00 USD from main pot

[voldemort]

3rd hand, I've folded the first two.

Poker Stars, $6.71 Buy-in (10/20 blinds, 2 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP: 538 (26.9 bb)
CO: 486 (24.3 bb)
BTN: 446 (22.3 bb)
Hero (SB): 476 (23.8 bb)
BB: 558 (27.9 bb)
UTG: 496 (24.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K T
3 folds, BTN calls 20, Hero raises to 85, BB folds, BTN calls 65

Flop: (202) Q K 4 (2 players)
Hero bets 100, BTN calls 100

Turn: (402) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets 200, BTN calls 200

River: (802) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets 89 and is all-in, BTN calls 59 and is all-in

I shove the next hand and lose...why is my EV for this game $0.45?

[DublinMeUp]

Originally Posted by voldemort

3rd hand, I've folded the first two.

Poker Stars, $6.71 Buy-in (10/20 blinds, 2 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP: 538 (26.9 bb)
CO: 486 (24.3 bb)
BTN: 446 (22.3 bb)
Hero (SB): 476 (23.8 bb)
BB: 558 (27.9 bb)
UTG: 496 (24.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K T
3 folds, BTN calls 20, Hero raises to 85, BB folds, BTN calls 65

Flop: (202) Q K 4 (2 players)
Hero bets 100, BTN calls 100

Turn: (402) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets 200, BTN calls 200

River: (802) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets 89 and is all-in, BTN calls 59 and is all-in

I shove the next hand and lose...why is my EV for this game $0.45?

because the "All in" happened when you were way behind.. ie beat.. its an All in calc so it can only use the equity %'s from the point all the money goes in the pot

[Mecastyles]

My results are imported correctly in HEM2lately.

I am wondering if HEM2 also calculates the $EV correctly and then specificly for 5050s?

thanks

[TruFloridaGator]

Just a reminder, this isn't a place to post "Is this possible?" type graphs. This is to discuss the redline specifically in regards to its use, functionality, and accuracy.

Please see the FAQ on variance, almost any downswing is possible, and absurd ones are possible if you're playing games with tiny ROIs(think about it you're barely winning b4 rakeback).

[vookenmeister]

hey gator -> any thoughts on absurdly long post about the EV calculation for hands that you aren't part of? I know it calculates some of it but it just seems like it is way off per my long-winded examples above.

the biggest one that confuses me is the one where it gave me a negative EV of $4.63 when I didn't even play the hand AND the shorty won (how could I have done $4.63 better than expected?).

Is the basic answer, shut up and focus on playing better in tourneys instead of staring at a semi-accurate EV graph? spend my time toying around with SNG WIz instead?

hope you're running well!

[Rusemandingo]

vook, are you confusing EV gained and lost with difference between actual eq gained and EV equity?

Looking at each individual hand and trying to disprove redline cause it doesnt seem right is futile. Either pay attention to redline or dont but dont waste all this time on it.

[vookenmeister]

Originally Posted by Rusemandingo

vook, are you confusing EV gained and lost with difference between actual eq gained and EV equity?

yes... I'm confusing things a little. since it's just the difference the swings won't be large as I need to remember my EV was already high. good point. what really confused me was that negative reading. I'm still confused.

Originally Posted by Rusemandingo

Looking at each individual hand and trying to disprove redline cause it doesnt seem right is futile. Either pay attention to redline or dont but dont waste all this time on it.

but really this... i need a kick in the ass to move on.

[OMGBarackObama]

Anyone else get MASSIVELY different results for their redline when importing their database into HM2 vs their redline from HM1? Did they change the way they calculate the Redline? Here is what should be the same sample of just under 12.7k games played over the last couple months.

HEM1 Redline about $6600



HEM2 Redline about $12000


Number of games and actual profits remain the same. Wtf?