***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread*** - Page 6 - STT Poker Strategy

angry_man · 03-12-2009, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glitlr

I mean, obv the better a player is the less variance they will get (to some slight degree) b/c they have less bad plays mixed into their game. Everytime I make a bad 3To push (haha) it adds to my variance.

That's not variance. Variance describes the extent to which your results in the short term may differ from the long term expectation. Bad plays affect what the long term expectation is, not the variance from that expectation.

Also, even with all other things being equal (same game, same number of tables etc, etc) ROI is the most relevant measure of how good a player is, not variance. A bad, breakeven player could easily have very low variance whilst a great player could have very high variance. Variance depends on your style of play and particularly *what* you play.

Glitlr · 03-12-2009, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by angry_man

That's not variance. Variance describes the extent to which your results in the short term may differ from the long term expectation. Bad plays affect what the long term expectation is, not the variance from that expectation.

Also, even with all other things being equal (same game, same number of tables etc, etc) ROI is the most relevant measure of how good a player is, not variance. A bad, breakeven player could easily have very low variance whilst a great player could have very high variance. Variance depends on your style of play and particularly *what* you play.

Ah, I'd have to agree with you now. Good explanation. ROI, however, is not the biggest thing imo. $/hr is. And also how many cool things you can buy with winnings

Glitlr · 03-12-2009, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by th1986

thanks for posting instructions though , I'll PM you and get approval before i post next time!

lo-****in-l

angry_man · 03-12-2009, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glitlr

Ah, I'd have to agree with you now. Good explanation. ROI, however, is not the biggest thing imo. $/hr is. And also how many cool things you can buy with winnings

I almost wrote $/hr instead of ROI, but it didn't feel quite right to say that because that's so stake dependent. For example, the better player of two may earn slower simply because he's not sufficiently bankrolled for the stakes the worse guy is at. So I settled on "all other things being equal" and ROI. I suppose it's not really any different from "all other things being equal" and $/hr though!

**jukofyork** · 03-12-2009, 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bagclip2007

juk thanks for posting. when holdem manager started implementing the luck thing i still ran ur program to make sure because i believe it is pretty damn close.

honestly, juks program has been the only reason ive kept my sanity while playing stt's i mean i dont mind losing if i was supposed to be winning. only reason i dont use it anymore cause hem has pretty grafsss

Yep, it's kept my sanity plenty of times too. I think it was after reading curtains' blog about shortstacking and pEV that I realized that there was no point in stressing over your actual winnings for the day, week, month, etc and all that really mattered was what you "should" have made. After I came round to that way of thinking downswings lost their bite when it came to effecting me emotionally (not that I was very prone to tilting, but I would get sick of poker and take random days or weeks off).

Juk

Glitlr · 03-12-2009, 07:00 PM

Hey, Juk. I went searching for the link to your luck analyzer and found the thing in post#938 Juks_BackTestAllInLuck_v1_03b.rar

This link is outdated I guess. Is there a current one?

I've always known about this program but I never realized what it actually did until now. Sounds pretty sweet to me.

**jukofyork** · 03-12-2009, 07:20 PM

Juks_BackTestAllInLuck_v1_03c.rar

Juk

Glitlr · 03-12-2009, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jukofyork

Juks_BackTestAllInLuck_v1_03c.rar

Juk

says file not found

bagclip2007 · 03-12-2009, 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glitlr

Hey, Juk. I went searching for the link to your luck analyzer and found the thing in post#938 Juks_BackTestAllInLuck_v1_03b.rar

This link is outdated I guess. Is there a current one?

I've always known about this program but I never realized what it actually did until now. Sounds pretty sweet to me.

ya man i live and died by juks program, if i lost a sesh as long as he said i was to be up i was like yaya. ever since then sng varaince doesnt matter im like well if i put in x number of games ill run good at one point or atleast i hope lol

gangip · 03-13-2009, 12:21 AM

gross

**jukofyork** · 03-13-2009, 12:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glitlr

says file not found

It works for me? Try again:

http://www.jukofyork.com/Juks_BackTe...uck_v1_03c.rar

Juk

Glitlr · 03-13-2009, 01:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jukofyork

It works for me? Try again:

http://www.jukofyork.com/Juks_BackTe...uck_v1_03c.rar

Juk

ugh, i get the same error message as I get with debustifier. "error at line 1"

phaze112 · 03-13-2009, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glitlr

That's a good point. HOW THE HELL DOES HE NEVER FALL BELOW THE RED LINE??!?!?!?!

It's not that he never fell below the red line, it's that he got ahead of it by a certain amount that when he did run bad, he was still able to stay above it as a whole.

shimmy · 03-14-2009, 02:07 PM

Is this typical variance? I'm primarily a cash player, by no means great at sngs but I should be at least breakeven, this is how I run at the 60 sngs. They always (ALWAYS) have the top of their range or suck out.

Edit: Read the whole thread, see I'm by no means running worse than others in this thread. How do you people put up with these swings?? Typical bankroll - 200 buyins? Back to cash asap imo!

DirDirDirty · 03-24-2009, 09:55 AM

Alright is there anyone that can help me with this? I have HEM, and the new beta, 1.08 Beta 21, but I cannot get this to work.

I downloaded the Beta then created a new database and imported my ~2500 tourneys, no luck. Then I exported everything, created a new database and re imported from where they were exported to, no luck. Then I requested my last 2600 Tourney Histories from stars, worked for my 200 most recent games, but nothing else because stars doesn't give detailed histories for anything before that.

So all I have is my graphs for ~225 tourneys, how are you guys getting graphs for thousands, is there someway to like autofill the winnings for your tourneys?