That's not variance. Variance describes the extent to which your results in the short term may differ from the long term expectation. Bad plays affect what the long term expectation is, not the variance from that expectation.

Also, even with all other things being equal (same game, same number of tables etc, etc) ROI is the most relevant measure of how good a player is, not variance. A bad, breakeven player could easily have very low variance whilst a great player could have very high variance. Variance depends on your style of play and particularly *what* you play.

Ah, I'd have to agree with you now. Good explanation. ROI, however, is not the biggest thing imo. $/hr is. And also how many cool things you can buy with winnings

lo-****in-l

I almost wrote $/hr instead of ROI, but it didn't feel quite right to say that because that's so stake dependent. For example, the better player of two may earn slower simply because he's not sufficiently bankrolled for the stakes the worse guy is at. So I settled on "all other things being equal" and ROI. I suppose it's not really any different from "all other things being equal" and $/hr though!

Yep, it's kept my sanity plenty of times too. I think it was after reading curtains' blog about shortstacking and pEV that I realized that there was no point in stressing over your actual winnings for the day, week, month, etc and all that really mattered was what you "should" have made. After I came round to that way of thinking downswings lost their bite when it came to effecting me emotionally (not that I was very prone to tilting, but I would get sick of poker and take random days or weeks off).

Juk

Hey, Juk. I went searching for the link to your luck analyzer and found the thing in post#938 Juks_BackTestAllInLuck_v1_03b.rar

This link is outdated I guess. Is there a current one?

I've always known about this program but I never realized what it actually did until now. Sounds pretty sweet to me.

Juks_BackTestAllInLuck_v1_03c.rar

Juk

says file not found

ya man i live and died by juks program, if i lost a sesh as long as he said i was to be up i was like yaya. ever since then sng varaince doesnt matter im like well if i put in x number of games ill run good at one point or atleast i hope lol

gross

It works for me? Try again:

http://www.jukofyork.com/Juks_BackTe...uck_v1_03c.rar

Juk

ugh, i get the same error message as I get with debustifier. "error at line 1"

It's not that he never fell below the red line, it's that he got ahead of it by a certain amount that when he did run bad, he was still able to stay above it as a whole.

Is this typical variance? I'm primarily a cash player, by no means great at sngs but I should be at least breakeven, this is how I run at the 60 sngs. They always (ALWAYS) have the top of their range or suck out.


Edit: Read the whole thread, see I'm by no means running worse than others in this thread. How do you people put up with these swings?? Typical bankroll - 200 buyins? Back to cash asap imo!

Alright is there anyone that can help me with this? I have HEM, and the new beta, 1.08 Beta 21, but I cannot get this to work.

I downloaded the Beta then created a new database and imported my ~2500 tourneys, no luck. Then I exported everything, created a new database and re imported from where they were exported to, no luck. Then I requested my last 2600 Tourney Histories from stars, worked for my 200 most recent games, but nothing else because stars doesn't give detailed histories for anything before that.

So all I have is my graphs for ~225 tourneys, how are you guys getting graphs for thousands, is there someway to like autofill the winnings for your tourneys?

I think HEM support would be a better place for this (their email, the thread in software, their forum on holdemmanager.net). probably want to explain further what "no luck" means (what fails, what messages you get back, etc)

Jesus, I have gone to HEM support, they get 100+ emails everyday, and while morny seems like a lot of help in general he has been none to me in the last two days.

My problem is geared specifically toward STTs, and you guys obviously got it to work, is it really that big a deal to ask a simple question. I get bitched at in the STTF thread, and then when I go back to morny, he still doesn't have an answer I figure I'll try the thread basically dedicated to what I am trying to get to work, and I still get crap from people.

If there is anyone who can help me and wants to PM me or something I would really appreciate it, thanks.

This is the second or third time in a couple of days i've gotten **** for trying to help people in this forum. i reply to you within 5 minutes of your post with pointers on where best to get an answer to your question and i get **** like this

- You aren't "getting crap" from me. I didn't say it was "a big deal". I just pointed you towards the best sources to request support. I also pointed out that you may wish to include more details in your bug report.

- This thread is not dedicated to getting it to work, it's a discussion about it's output.

- I couldn't help you further because i have nothing further to suggest. I got it to import fine doing exactly what you said you did. Perhaps you have uncovered an unknown bug. So instead i pointed you in a perhaps more fruitful direction. what a bastard i am

Alright I apologize then, I took your post as coming across as condescending as that has been how others I have gotten have been. It's hard to tell solely through text sometimes whether you're trying to be helpful or be a dick, as I am sure you know, and I'm sorry for assuming the latter.

Anyways, I don't want to clutter this thread up, but I have done all that, and read through all the HEM FAQ's and been talking with Morny from HEM support, I still can't get it to work. So if anyone can think of what I might be doing wrong I would greatly appreciate it. Thanks.

And as far as "no luck", I can only get profit graphs for 200 games, and nothing for the other 2300, I just want to get those to fill in so I can use my profit graphs, and luck analyzer and other tools.

Perhaps this has been addressed, but how many games would it be possible for a winning player to show negative EV ROI stats.

Let's say in a 10 game sample, I ran KK into AA every game PF and the deck broke perfectly even during showdown runs. Likely any S/G player in the world would have the chips in -EV spots in this example. I would be shown to be a -EV ROI player. I guess this could be generalized by our opponents consistently waking up to the top hands in their range.

How long have you 5k+ plus winning players seen -EV ROI runs.

If I am perhaps misunderstanding, please correct my thought process.

Thanks.

Applying to STT's, isn't the luck graph kind of irrelevant? The only way you're going to be constantly getting it in good (thus sometimes losing and being "unlucky") is if you aren't shoving enough and you play too tight in the first place. On the other hand if you make all the right shoves when you do get called you're often going to be getting it in behind, meaning you can only get "lucky" to win.

I've just had a 1k adjusted break even run followed after a brief upswing by an 800 game adjusted slight losing run, but I think I've been playing pretty bad for a good amount of that time, but maybe not too bad for the first 1k breakeven.

This is accounted for in the calculations. In the first example of always getting it in good, you would still be "lucky" to win all of your showdowns. For example if you get it in first hand and an 80% favourite and hold it will report that you have been slightly "lucky", as you have won 20% more of the pot than you should on average. If you get sucked out on it will report that you are very "unlucky" as you have won 80% less than you should on average. This is all weighted for icm effects as well.

June so far in the 16s.

I don't want to come across as a whiny little bitch but I just felt like I had to post the graph for therapy purposes. I'm really frustrated about running so much under expectations but at the same time I'm quite happy with the direction of the red line. I guess I just have to keep working hard and stay patient. They say the universe will unfold...

67 bi under ev in 550 games has been quite a bumpy ride

looks like you are getting 50c/game over 550 games.. things could be a lot worse

HEM for some reason doesn't adjust my red and green line anymore for SNGs, it did initially, which is pretty strange...It still works ok for cash games.