***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread***

[asdrubale]

superturbos.

[jukofyork]

Originally Posted by cristi13

I noticed that on some tourneys the $EV won is negative and even more than the buy-in.
For example on a $11 it's -$24 and i didn't even cash out. Is this an error or i'm missing out something?

It's correct: it's the sum of all the all-in luck you've had in the SNG so it's quite possible to gain chips via non non-all hands and then lose, etc.

Juk

[cristi13]

Originally Posted by jukofyork

It's correct: it's the sum of all the all-in luck you've had in the SNG so it's quite possible to gain chips via non non-all hands and then lose, etc.

It's actually the other way. -$24 ev means i ran above ev $24. But i didn't get in the money so i don't really see how winning $0 in a $11 buy-in is $24 above EV. I thought in the worst case when you lose you're $0 ev. The program might be right, but isn't it irrelevant to calculate the luck in this case?

[yellowbastard]

Here is a graph of my past ~ 1000 tourneys on Full Tilt (6 max)




Here are the same games graphed in PT3's "Tourney Luck" tool that just calculates chip ev...



According to the Hold'em Manager "red line" my actual results and expected results are both down. According to the PT3 graph my actual results are down but my expected results are way up.

Can the difference between chip EV and $EV account for such a huge difference in expected results? Thoughts?

[TGhost]

Originally Posted by cristi13

It's actually the other way. -$24 ev means i ran above ev $24. But i didn't get in the money so i don't really see how winning $0 in a $11 buy-in is $24 above EV. I thought in the worst case when you lose you're $0 ev. The program might be right, but isn't it irrelevant to calculate the luck in this case?

The EV calculation is based on ICM for each hand. The resulting EV for the tourney is based on how much you cash for plus the luck results for each hand.

If you get your money in bad multiple times and suck out, you will run above EV by a considerable margin. If you do this and don't cash, the suckouts don't just get ignored. It can go the other way too and you can have a luck-adjusted result much higher than 1st place money.

If you think of it as a sum of each hand it will make more sense.

[TGhost]

Originally Posted by yellowbastard

Can the difference between chip EV and $EV account for such a huge difference in expected results? Thoughts?

Absolutely. In many tournament situations cEV and $EV are very different. Over thousands of SNGs you can consistently make simultaneously +cEV & -$EV decisions every game and end up with this disparity fairly easily.

[Q]

btw i changed my mind and now believe in EV line to the fullest. Its your expectation and dont expect to run above it like was said in some thread.

[simsina]

Does anyone ever have a day were they're expecting losses for the day ?
For instance their actual results are -270 but their adjusted are -40 ?
If so is this common ?

[Glitlr]

Wow. Those graphs are just wow. My new motto is lol @ cEV...jeez.

[RagzToRiches]

Originally Posted by Q..

btw i changed my mind and now believe in EV line to the fullest. Its your expectation and dont expect to run above it like was said in some thread.

And why should we expect to run below it?

Originally Posted by simsina

Does anyone ever have a day were they're expecting losses for the day ?
For instance their actual results are -270 but their adjusted are -40 ?
If so is this common ?

Yes, mine is usual losses $500... luck adjusted +$1000


So would a cev adjusted line give a more accurate figure on how lucky/unlucky we are compared to $ev?

[Q]

Originally Posted by RagzToRiches

And why should we expect to run below it?

dont think that 3> 3 .
Why should we think that 3 < 3?

I dunno if your joking or not but you can only expect to run at your expectation.

[simsina]

I think the way you had originally wrote it came off as if you should expect to run below it but not above it. I think that's what Ragz was implying.

[imjoshsizemore]

So we are just as likely to run above the EV line as below it?

[simsina]

I'm not an expert by no means but I've taken stats in univ. The EV line is our "expected" winnings/losses. Sometimes we'll be above it, below it and and on it. The bigger the sample size (tournies played) the closer our actual results should be to the EV line.

Just like in a normal bell curve distribution , there are going to be people out there who are way above/below their expected line. But the majority of people should be around their EV line.

[sippin_criss]

sina i've had days/sessions where i was down and so was my expectation. my last 9k 16s (whole hem db) i am like 2k above ev and my green line was below the red for a total of like 250-300 hands. mbn