***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread***

[Deurdy]

Originally Posted by Landonfan

This is incredibly disappointing. I assumed it was her, and the 2004 patch meant she was 16. My dreams have been crushed.

Can we get someone to get to the bottom of this, I really wanna know who it is now..

[willperkins]

Originally Posted by Deurdy

Can we get someone to get to the bottom of this, I really wanna know who it is now..

Still a great ass though!!!!!!

[AnfieldRoad]

google picture search Carly Patterson

bottom of page two.

A then sixteen year old. Gymnast (ie no female shapes). You sick ****s.

[retam]

I'm really glad HEM can't evaluate the $ev line for MTTSNG's. I focus on my game a lot more now ^^

[Heimdal77]

Originally Posted by AnfieldRoad

google picture search Carly Patterson

bottom of page two.

A then sixteen year old. Gymnast (ie no female shapes). You sick ****s.

Man u're good. HTF could you find this picture?

[Landonfan]

Originally Posted by AnfieldRoad

google picture search Carly Patterson

bottom of page two.

A then sixteen year old. Gymnast (ie no female shapes). You sick ****s.

sahgsjk;hglshglshnkhgf

If she wasn't 16 I'd be tempted to change my avatar

[jurrasstoil]

Originally Posted by Deurdy

Can we get someone to get to the bottom of this, I really wanna know who it is now..

Carly Patterson.

edit: AR beat me to it. just instareplied after seeing deurdy's post.

[Deurdy]

Glad that has been solved.

[sohoskiracer]

Originally Posted by AnfieldRoad

I think this is the core of your post, and I don't understand it. I feel dumb.

I can't understand how we can determine running into the top of people's ranges from the EV line.

Braminc is saying that because some players "know" or can guess at their true ROI the red line can tell them something else.

If the red line is BELOW your "true ROI" (and you somehow KNOW your true ROI perfectly in every situation) then you clearly arent getting unlucky at SD, right? But since you KNOW your true ROI you are now sure that some form of luck is making your red line lower then your ROI. Therefore you are getting set up/coolered way to often.

Since these two forms of luck are the predominant ones in SnGs and if we ASSUME they are the two major variables in variance, the red line can tell us exactly which reason it is we are running below our true ROI. If the red line is above the green line, and above our true ROI, then we are getting unlucky at SD. If the red line is above the green line AND below your true ROI, you are getting coolered way to often AND not winning enough of those coolers. If the red line is BELOW the green line and BELOW your true ROI, then your getting coolered way to often AND being a giant lucksack and hitting sets when its KK v AA AIPF.

Hope that clarified Braminc's post, and mine somewhat. Anyway I guess some of the high stakes players can guess their true ROI, but I really don't think its possible. Your ROI varies from game to game, especially if your game selecting at higher stakes. Since players, im assuming, are better, your ROI will vary GREATLY from having one extra fish in the game, therefore you can never, I think, truly KNOW your ROI, therefore invalidating most of what I posted above.

However in the long run at stakes where game selection doesnt play a role (like the 12s which i play) it may be possible to know your true ROI within +/- 2% points.

[braminc]

Originally Posted by AnfieldRoad

I think this is the core of your post, and I don't understand it. I feel dumb.

I can't understand how we can determine running into the top of people's ranges from the EV line.

Basically what i mean is, the red line tells us how we are getting it in. If we're always getting it in bad the red line has a downward slope. If we're always getting it in good it will have upward slope, etc. Therefore, one can theoretically use the red line to monitor how theyre running on just setups (rather than try to do it by memory which is always less accurate).

When combining that knowledge with the disparity between red and green lines, you have a lot of good info imo.

The red line going down can also mean YOU ARE PLAYING BAD.

And to soho, i agree you can never know your true roi, its only a theoretical number, but you can know with high degree of certainty the ballpark area of your true roi, and then can make conclusions with high degree of accuracy when your red/green lines are WAY off of that suspected true roi. If theyre slightly off then it would be dangerous to make assumptions and also useless since you would be running very close to average.

[dave1mo]

What does it mean when you are 190 buyins below EV over 2700 STTs?

[sohoskiracer]

Originally Posted by dave1mo

What does it mean when you are 190 buyins below EV over 2700 STTs?

it means you run bad, and over only 2.7K games you are running at 7% Below average. Within this sample size that is a reasonable (if very large) number.

[faarcyde]

bram i could be wrong but i don't think the red line represents the cooler element at all. if you get it in with KK vs AA it will simply measure it as you having 20 percent equity and how lucky you have or have not gotten at showdown...

[DeepFryer]

Originally Posted by faarcyde

bram i could be wrong but i don't think the red line represents the cooler element at all. if you get it in with KK vs AA it will simply measure it as you having 20 percent equity and how lucky you have or have not gotten at showdown...

He had it right. Let's say you're down to heads-up play in a STT. You and your opponent each have an equal number of chips... so before the start of the hand, your tournament equity is 50% (of the remaining prize pool, not counting 3rd place obviously).

After you get it in with KK against AA your tournament equity drops to 20%, causing your red line to go down pretty dramatically.

It doesn't matter who actually wins the showdown because that doesn't affect your red line.

[sohoskiracer]

Originally Posted by faarcyde

bram i could be wrong but i don't think the red line represents the cooler element at all. if you get it in with KK vs AA it will simply measure it as you having 20 percent equity and how lucky you have or have not gotten at showdown...

It only represents the cooler element if you use it in relation to your true ROI, not my previous post on what means what exactly (where the 3 lines are, true ROI, $ earned, EV money earned).

If you are sure your true ROI is X and your red line is at -1/2 X, well then you know the reason for your bad luck is getting coolered, since the red line accounts for SD luck.