***Official HEM Red Line Discussion Thread*** - Page 50 - MTT Poker Strategy

People tend to see the EV line on their tracking software and
believe this is more correct showing one's EV or ROI in her game, and
I was also one of them.

However, I suddenly came up with a thought that defers;
. if hero plays aggressive game approach and try to maximize the fold equity,
it can defer. (although the graph only shows the result when called thus when failed to make her opponent fold)
. some times other variables, such as stack sizes, game flow and/or certain villain's tendency kicks in to affect the EV graph.

Pls correct me, as I kind of figured while writing this

just doesn't quite make sense. lol

Quote

05-01-2014 , 06:46 PM

#1228

jukofyork

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 11,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by wowjk86

. if hero plays aggressive game approach and try to maximize the fold equity,
it can defer. (although the graph only shows the result when called thus when failed to make her opponent fold)

The strategy (and/or SNG-speed and/or SNG-structure) you choose to play shouldn't introduce any long-term bias into the red-line calculation, but it can reduce the effectiveness of the red-line as a lower-variance estimator (ie: the less all-in showdowns, the less the reduction in standard deviations between the green-line and red-line and thus the larger the sample you'll need to be able to estimate your "true" ROI).

Quote:

. some times other variables, such as stack sizes, game flow and/or certain villain's tendency kicks in to affect the EV graph.

Again, these variables shouldn't introduce any bias into the red-line calculation, but the same goes as above with regard to effectiveness.

Juk

Quote

07-07-2014 , 12:59 PM

#1229

MrTilt001

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 296

I dont know if this has been covered before but I have started playing 18 man sit n gos and I seem to be running so far below EV its crazy.

Makes me question how accurate can this number be? Obviously in cash it is a lot easier to work this out but in Sit n Gos surely its impossible to work out my EV for this game format?

Thanks for any help for people that know more about this.

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07-07-2014 , 02:29 PM

#1230

Dochrohan

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 4,195

I prefer studying vs looking at an EV graph.

Big mistake in my opinion even looking at it vs putting that time you use in studying a single hand.

Quote

07-07-2014 , 03:06 PM

#1231

avramia

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 94

In 18man you can only see how you run on chipEV which is far from $EV. ICM adjusted is not calculated for MTT sngs.

Quote

07-07-2014 , 03:08 PM

#1232

Rusemandingo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 14,067

Not completely for stts and not even a little for mtsngs.

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07-07-2014 , 03:36 PM

#1233

egoismforever

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 639

Interesting thread. I posted the same questionf or 6max ht in the sticky

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07-07-2014 , 05:03 PM

#1234

JayDowdle

adept

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 1,120

Don't even look at that line

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07-09-2014 , 06:54 AM

#1235

acbarone

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 4,880

LOL not looking at it

It's imperfect, sure, but it's a better indicator of true ROI than the green line. Of course, this message will be disregarded by the sunrunners.

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07-10-2014 , 12:57 AM

#1236

Thrash370

See my staking thread

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,195

Quote:

Originally Posted by acbarone

LOL not looking at it

It's imperfect, sure, but it's a better indicator of true ROI than the green line. Of course, this message will be disregarded by the sunrunners.

For 9 mans and 6 mans yes it is accurate within reason. The previous person was asking about 18s which normally in HEM1 is super bugged. The redline for 18s should be equal to your results, HEM1 is unable to calculate this, you can only see cEV. For a lot of people myself included however get redlines because it accidentally records a lot of games as a 9 man.

Quote

07-10-2014 , 01:18 AM

#1237

dybboss

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,513

because you dont have saving tournament summary on (or whatever its named), its like with HH, save it, auto-import, HEM knows how many player tournament it is, if its above 10 it doesnt even try calculating redline

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07-10-2014 , 01:20 AM

#1238

Thrash370

See my staking thread

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,195

Quote:

Originally Posted by dybboss

Not true for everyone. I save tournament summary just like you said and it still has issues. I am far from the only one. It seems hit or miss that every now and then you find someone who it records perfect for. If you know another fix I'm all ears.

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07-10-2014 , 06:01 AM

#1239

MetalSpork

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,294

I find OCD works great for missing results.

Quote

07-21-2014 , 01:18 PM

#1240

IseeBrokePeople

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 52

My question is.. Do I have to import the tournament histories to get a correct red line in hem2 playing just STT tournaments?

Quote

07-21-2014 , 01:35 PM

#1241

fozzy71

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 38,192

Quote:

Originally Posted by IseeBrokePeople

My question is.. Do I have to import the tournament histories to get a correct red line in hem2 playing just STT tournaments?

Yes, I believe so as the $EV is based on payout structure and that information is not contained in stars HH files for STTs iirc.

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09-23-2014 , 09:23 AM

#1242

sick

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 160

When you win hands it says that you've lose EV. When you lose hands it says you've made ev [ EV diff i mean ].

Sometimes all I see is bad beats, I'm getting killed ---> ev going down.

Sometimes I serve bad beats, I get it in bad---> red line going up.

WTF? Does anyone really understand how it works?!

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09-23-2014 , 09:26 AM

#1243

dybboss

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,513

yes

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/36...thread-573570/

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09-23-2014 , 11:09 PM

#1244

Rusemandingo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 14,067

That number you see is the differential between what you actually won and what your EV should have been. So when you win a hand that you didnt get in as 100%, your expected eq will be lower than your actual, and you will have a negative differential. Same for losing a hand you had >0% equity in.

If youre just looking at the last hand of the tourney and then how the redline reacted to that game, there's a lot more going on than just that one hand. If you 2x or 3x your stack without going all in, you can get it in bad and still have your redline go up.

Etc, just read the thead. Ideall, just dont worry about it, but gl with that.

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09-23-2014 , 11:53 PM

#1245

p2 dog, p2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 7,536

u can win hands and lose ev and vice versa

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11-21-2014 , 10:46 AM

#1246

remcojwz

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 8

hello,

i play 6max hypers on 888poker, mostly 1 dollar.

my ev line looks great, but my profit is swinging.

is this ev line trustable? cause it feels like i am always playing below ev.

my ev roi is 17%
is this any good?

with kind regards,

remcojwz

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11-22-2014 , 12:54 AM

#1247

emitnulB

veteran

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 3,444

come back after 10k games and then ask these questions.

Quote

11-24-2014 , 01:46 AM

#1248

am_man

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 1,392

Quote:

Originally Posted by remcojwz

hello,

i play 6max hypers on 888poker, mostly 1 dollar.

my ev line looks great, but my profit is swinging.

is this ev line trustable? cause it feels like i am always playing below ev.

my ev roi is 17%
is this any good?

with kind regards,

remcojwz

Are you importing hands while you were playing? It's been a problem for many years that if you import hands while you play, your EV line will be much higher then it should be on HEM. Re-import your hands into a new database from a folder while you are not playing, and then you can see your real line.

Its a problem I told them about at least 2 years ago, but they still have not fixed it.