Something I was pondering today.
"Perfect" game theory strat says to fold every hand until you reach a point where your chances of winning the
whole tournament if you shove/call and win the hand are great enough. This usually works out to be fold every hand even AA until you ar the shortest stack and then shove a wide range of hands (assuming that other players are using the same "perfect" gt strat) until you are no longer in danger of being blinded out.
Sadly given that as soon as the shortest stack at the table goes all-in it then becomes correct for everybody else to call and check down the hand post flop it's not exactly a "perfect" strategy by any means.
Lucky for us - noone really does that.
Have a looksee at this table - posted in an earlier DON thread
A 10% ROI is pretty dam good over a large sample at $10 - as you get higher and higher in stakes the good players ROI drops so that a solid player at $52's or $104's can only really expect a 5% ROI.
Think about what this means in terms of how tight you should play.
At the $1 level you can sit out every hand (close to the "perfect" strat) and you'll win a bunch of tournaments. At the $100 level if you sit out every hand you'll win very close to zero tournaments.
The higher the stake the looser you should play.
If we assume that we are as good at bubble play as the rest of the table, so that once it gets 6/7 handed we will win the same % of games in the long term as the others at the table, then this means that we will generally only need to win one all-in confrontation to get to that point. Av stack at the point of the 6th player getting eliminated is t3000, and also each game will cost us ~t3000 in chips to pay the blinds antes.
So at $5/$10 levels we ought to play very tight and play a waiting game to ge to the bubble. The other players are generally so lol bad that they will make all kinds of dumb plays and knock each other out. Once the game gets to the bubble we then use our mad bubble skillz to more often than not ship the tournament - 10% ROI = 57% ITM or thereabouts. We should actively avoid taking coinflips and 60/40 flips unless we are in great need of chips especially early on.
As the levels get higher we should not shy away from 60/40 situations most of the time as the table shows a 5% ROI = ~55% ITM playing Stars turbos.
Once we get to the bubble assuming we are as good as the other players and stacks are even is our equity is ~83% - if we win a 60/40 to get to the bubble in the first place we will likely have a bigger stack to work with so that % will rise.
In practical terms this means that our calling ranges for shoves from good players in higher stakes DON's will be a little wider - and in lower stakes games very tight.
er I think so anyway. Cue some good players chiming in now with why I'm horribly wrong or something