I would think any time someone gets someone else to go all in and has 70% equity and loses to be variance and bad beats. What do you call that happening to the the same guy literally all day and night for months? That's not bad luck?

You really don't get it. I'm going to have to post some hands somewhere so you can grasp this. There are times I lose 10 in an hour. Over and over and over. As I've said before, these are pretty mild cases that's I'm posting in this thread but you know they're still bad. Think about them together and not just individually.

I do insist...It's but a handful of times that I've ever won an all in with less than 40% equity. If I have less than 50 I basically will never, ever win. As for winning with like less than 20% like some of these guys - I haven't once. Not in 40,000 hands. I swear it.

I have to play a hand sometimes. The problem is that either I get absolutely destroyed on the board when we go all in, or every time I catch a monster hand - someone else either flopped quads or has a higher full house. Here's one against who I think any of you would consider is a massive, massive sperm whale by anybody's standards. Terrible, terrible player.

Winning Poker Network - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $5.27
UTG+1: $2.08
MP: $1.33
MP+1: $0.94
Hero (MP+2): $4.05
CO: $2.01
BTN: $1.75
SB: $0.78
BB: $2.00

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has K K

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.08, fold, fold, SB calls $0.07, BB calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.24, 3 players) A K A
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.15, fold, BB calls $0.15

Turn: ($0.54, 2 players) 6
BB checks, Hero bets $0.30, BB raises to $1.77 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.47

River: ($4.08, 2 players) 2



That's not bad enough? Ok:

Revolution Gaming Network - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $4.78 (VPIP: 18.40, PFR: 12.76, 3Bet Preflop: 2.00, Hands: 343)
Hero (BB): $4.29
UTG: $4.47 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 21.11, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 98)
CO: $4.12 (VPIP: 26.35, PFR: 1.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 149)
BTN: $4.51 (VPIP: 36.89, PFR: 21.84, 3Bet Preflop: 1.54, Hands: 215)

SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.06) Hero has Q T

fold, CO raises to $0.12, BTN calls $0.12, SB calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.48, 4 players) J K A
SB checks, Hero bets $0.32, CO calls $0.32, BTN raises to $1.76, fold, Hero calls $1.44, fold

Turn: ($4.32, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.63 and is all-in, Hero calls $2.41 and is all-in

River: ($9.14, 2 players) A



I have others that are much, much worse. I'll find them. Please don't sit there and tell me that this is just "typical variance" and "everyone goes through it". I've watched guys move up from 2nl to now 10nl in just the time I'm playing by doing ALL of the things you're just not supposed to do. Open limping, playing 60/10/2 poker, shoving all in with ATC just about whenever it tickles their fancy. Every time I join tables I see them sitting there with $10.50 @ 2nl and @28.73 @ 5nl. Every time. Deck just SLAMMING them. I mean, SLAMMING them. 3 and 4 full houses a session. Me? I've definitely contributed greatly to their moving up so fast by getting them to go all in with absolutely ridiculous hands.

I'll tell you what - so far, all of the hard work, advice, studying, and dedication has really paid off. It's a good thing I'm absolutely insane or else I don't know how I'd ever stay in this game long enough to push past this.

The 2 hands i was referring to, you were flipping in one and you got it in dead in the other. No, that's not bad luck.

Please, don't post any more hands. Cute that you say you're new to poker and that I don't get it. A few people in this thread that have replied to you have played tens of thousands of SNGs and have endured stretches of multiple thousand game downswings. We get it. We just don't get our panties in a bunch over it. Poker isn't as glamorous as it seems, huh? The victim mentality is really going to hold you back from improving.

This forum is to talk about strategy in sngs, not how often you lose a hand at 4NL.

It's one thing for the game not to be as glamorous as it seems. Although, that was never really the word that came to mind when I sat down and started playing. I grasp what you're trying to get at though. I expected, and still do, horrible runs and bad beats to be a regular part of playing the game. What I don't expect is to sit down and have NOTHING but that happen for the first 40,000 hands of playing poker. Not when I sit there and watch players who basically sit down, study 2+2, and then do specifically the opposite of what every good player advises accumulate literally hundreds of dollars in winnings. They are probably sitting their dead drunk at the screen and you know they don't put any work in off the felt. They are the very definition of whales.

I would just like to win something sometime. I would just like to get a nice stack built up, and end the session off feeling good. It happens now and then but typically, I start a session, build up a ton of money by playing well, and then just take beat, after beat, after beat. I'll dump most, or all of it, off to two or three fish at the table with hands like I'm posting, they'll leave and I'm screwed.

Again, it would just be nice if the game of poker didn't find it "cute", to use your word, to keep punishing the guy who actually puts in the work and outplays the hand.

If the good players always won, and the bad players always lost, poker would be dead. Variance is actually your friend, as hard as it is to believe when you're downswinging. It's tough out there. GL.

I know, I know. I do appreciate you guys taking the time to deal with me during a downswing. I do. I understand that some of you have lost literally thousands and thousands of dollars going through even worse than what I have. Just think where I'm coming from though. It's about percentage of bankroll. Seeing these donks just rake in cash while I (and I'm not the only one) keep getting ripped to pieces by variance is really ...deflating.

If variance truly is my friend well then I should have a running coming where I at least don't have to bend over and take it like this to THIS extent. I'd just like to be able to have a winrate indicative of how I'm playing. This is just pathetic now.

Well because you asked nicely...

Poker is a game based on assumptions. If you agree with my assumptions, proving that playing this passively is EV+ is easy. Now if you disagree with my assumptions then you may very well be right playing this hand aggressively. Either way I think it’s a close call not a snap shove.

Cutoff is short late in the game and should be open shoving wide. I’d say any pair, any ace. If he is limping in here he’s either a very bad player, or a player who is making a thinly disguised attempt to hide his AA. I don’t see any other explanation for a guy limping in in this spot.

Assumption #1- cutoff is either a very weak player 66% or he has AA 33%.
Now we need to start figuring out our tournament equity passive vs our tournament equity aggressive. If we play this passively we end up folding we have 1400 chips. The deep stack is to our right with the other shorts on our left and there is a good chance that the short stack to our immediate left is a very weak player. Our stack is the smallest but they are getting hit with the BB before us so I’m going to call our stack sizes close to even. The two short stacks are going to have a hard time open bluff shoving because the deep stack is going to be calling wide. What would you put our TE at in this spot?

Assumption #2- I put the TE for us playing passively for the deep stack at 90, hero 75, CU 65, other short stack 70
Now lets figure our TE aggressive. If we play this hand strong we are willing to get it all in. If we get it all in, he calls and we win, we have a TE of 100. If we get it all in and lose we have a TE of around 20. If we get it all in on the flop and he folds we have a TE of about 80.

Assumption #3- He calls our flop shove 100% with AA, 100% with Ax, and 0% with a low PP

Our PE vs AA is 5%. Our PE vs Ax is 68% Our PE vs PP is irrelevant because he is folding. What is relevant is how often he has the PP vs the Ax. There are 3 times as many Ax combo’s as there are 22-99 combo’s to start with. I assume he open raises with TT-KK. So over the course of 1000 hands:

334 villian has AA- we suck out 17 times
500 villian has Ax we win 340
166 villin has PP villain folds flop 166

Assumption #4-We get beat here 460 times out of 1000 giving up a massive amount of TE. We end the game with a W 340 times. We substantially increase our TE 166 times. From here you should be able to work out the EV calculation but if you agree with my assumptions (and a reasonable player might not) this is not a play it for as much as you can fully nutted type of hand. Another question you should ask your self is if the villain plays his cards face up and they are Ax where x is not a 10 or 7 and he does not have two spades do you still snap shove here?

I see your entire poker career and raise you the last five days of mine.

Locked.