There have been a lot of bitching and whining about variance and running bad, I would like to think this thread is for everyone, but everything I am writing here is something that anybody who wants to play poker seriously should have ingrained in them.
Takings shots
On 2p2 there are tons of threads and horror stories about people who take shots and lose their roll. These people get mocked, how can they be so dumb? Don’t you read every faq in every forum about how big your bankroll should be, remember two years ago when people thought that 30 buyins was a good bankroll, what a bunch of idiots look how much we have learned about variance it is even worse than we could possibly imagine. It can be worse than AIDs and the bubonic plague combined into some sort of super disease, worse than super AIDs (one teaspoon in your butt and you are dead in one year.)
People like to say “poker isn’t gambling”, but it is gambling, just gambling with an edge. Because of this mantra people are afraid to do anything perceived as “gambling” because they feel once they start gambling they might as well be playing roulette. That isn’t the case recently pifhulk made a post where he said he was going to
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1.Play the 16s/27s until I have 30k in my account probably Juneish time frame.
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This is plan is ridiculous it will cause pifhulk to make less money than he should and it will make it harder for him to improve. There is a fear whenever you move up that the higher stakes are much harder. You see posts occasionally where people say they would fold hands at $114s because an unknown villain has to be good at the $114s. I remember when I first started playing at the party $109s I thought they were going to be incredibly tough because guys like TravestyFund and John Hurst played them and they were a lot better than me. Than in my very first 109 some fish got it AIPF with like qjs in level 1 and I realized the difference between stakes is largely artificial. Another problem is people pigeon hole them as a certain level of player, “I am a $16 player”. I remember reading an interview with Whitelime and talking to Alan Sass about this as well that they play the stakes that they feel have the best games not the stakes they most frequently play. I remember playing soft $555s with 10k bankroll and I remember playing $60s with a 20k bankroll I didn’t just play the $114s because I was a $114 reg that is lazy and stupid.
If you have a decent memory you will recall that this section was titled taking shots and I haven’t specifically addressed that yet. About once a month I get a message on AIM from someone asking if they should move up, here is what I generally recommend to them. The games aren’t much harder if you move up, the only problem could be that you play bad because you care more about the money. Take a 10-15 buyin shot at higher stakes if you lose it all that sucks, but it isn’t crippling. It might take a couple tries, but eventually you will breakthrough and move up. Remember once you move up you can still move back down be afraid to move down some people don’t like moving down so once they move up they want to stay there this pre-emptive fear prevents people from moving up when it is profitable.
I know the goal of poker is to make money, but for me I always treated poker like a video game and my goal is to get to the next level and stay there. That being said from a fundamental level moving up for winning players will often cause you to make more money. If you are a good $27 reg with a 10% ROI and you move up the $60s your ROI can cut in half and you will still be making more money per hour. Not all of this applies to everyone some people may have no problem gambling, some people can voluntarily move down easily, but if you are overrolled for your stakes, think about why you aren’t moving up and even if the best decision is to stay put considering the alternatives.
A game vs. C game
The biggest problem that occurs when players have big downswings is they don’t play there A game this is especially true in sngs where people can regularly miss thin plays, but never make big mistakes so they think they are playing okay. In sngs one of the biggest problems I see in okay players is they have no understanding of game flow. If you make a 0.2 shove on the button, you should be passing up thin shoves from the CO because people are calling wider. Someone will post that hand where they shove CO with JTo and ten bbs and get mad when some retard calls with QJ. The hands looks fine when you post it without information, but with information it is a bad shove. I played this hand yesterday. As well nobody ever has reads they don’t need flawless reads, but stuff like he has been active, I have seen him minraise before, I saw him shove junk. All those sorts of things can help you make good decisions.
Party Poker $400 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter
Powered By DeucesCracked.com
Hero (CO): $1133.60
BTN: $402.50
SB: $396.00
BB: $400.00
UTG: $683.00
MP: $504.44
Pre Flop: Hero is CO with K
K
UTG raises to $14,
1 fold,
Hero raises to $48,
3 folds,
UTG raises to $125, Hero calls $77
Flop: ($256.00) Q
6
8
(2 players)
UTG bets $186, Hero calls $186
Turn: ($628.00) T
(2 players)
UTG bets $372 all in, Hero?
I played this hand yesterday when I am playing my B or C game I will think I need to have like 25% equity to call he can have AQ he can have a bluff, etc. However yesterday I thought he will almost always play AA/QQ like and he needs to be two barreling or have AQ a ton for this call to be good. So I timed down and folded.
When I am playing my poorly I call there because I am getting really good odds and I have KK. When he shows QQ or AA I would think dfshdfsjkdsjfjdsf what a sick ****ing cooler/suckout. Even when I send the hand to people on AIM to whine very few people would say fold turn. because it is a difficult fold. And even if I did call there it wouldn’t be such an egregious mistake to turn me from a winning player to a losing player. Individual mistakes like this don’t turn a winning player into a losing player, but they add up and can turn a marginal winner into a breakeven player or a big winner into a marginal winner. If you are a 10% ROI player and they go on a downswing people will use RVG’s simulator or other things and say “The odds of this happening are x%”. The problem is this you maybe a 10% ROI player, but you might not be playing like one. If you are experiencing and 1 in a million downswing it is probably more likely your premises are wrong than you are the most unlucky person in the world. Some people get stagnant if you have a 10% ROI people ask why am I running so bad, but they never ask why don’t I have a true 11% ROI. Learning from your mistakes and improving is approximately three millions times better than bitching about how bad you run.
What I just wrote was fairly rambly, however I guess the key to my post is trying to improve and get better is very important. You can improve internally through taking shots and challenging yourself and you can improve externally through posting talking to people on AIM and so long as people are honest and trying to help you and explaining what they are thinking you will improve.
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