Hi there,
I tried to use the pokeit.co to convert this hand but somehow it didn't work so follow the written version.

Context:
14 left 50$+5$ 30k GTD 8max
Anonymous pool I had something like 7 hands from vilan til now so not much to talk about.
He insta bet turn and insta shove river, also he opened 2.5x. I felt that his timing was a big tell and he had no reason to open bigger so I just fold. But don't know seems a little too tight, I still belive in my read but I'd like outside opinions.
Thank you.


iPoker - 5,000/10,000 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (CO): 27.53 BB
BTN: 32.42 BB
SB: 16.2 BB
BB: 18.53 BB
UTG: 7.63 BB
UTG+1: 49.17 BB
MP: 14.83 BB

7 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.2 BB) Hero has Kd Jd
fold, UTG+1 raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop : (7.2 BB, 2 players) 3h 6d 9c
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 2 BB, UTG+1 calls 2 BB

Turn : (11.19 BB, 2 players) Kh
UTG+1 bets 5.6 BB, Hero calls 5.6 BB

River : (22.38 BB, 2 players) 8s
UTG+1 bets 38.98 BB, fold

UTG+1 wins 22.38 BB

Your call pre is fine. I also like the small bet on the flop, hes folding some Ax hands but no pair. We still have 66 and 99 in our range. But 99 is half of the time raise or shove pre for sure.
So we have some small pockets 55-99 but also a lot of broadways mostly suited which we are calling pre. KQo is most of the time 3bet pre and not a pure call.

Hes only Check/Calling the flop, i dont think thats a really strong hand. He mostly Check/Raise Overpairs in my opinion vs your small flop bet. Maybe he is trapping with AA but that are only 6 combination. Hes donking the turn because Kx is good card for his range but we also have some Kx hands for sure. Turn call is pretty standard, we dont want to shove here... its a way behind or way infront spot and we want him to bluff the river. We also unblocking heart combination which he can donk the turn for sure.

River is a blank and we are almost top of our range and he also can bluff here a lot and make ICM pressure but iam sure in GTO we have a clear call here. Sometimes we are beat by KQ/AK or AA but we have to call here most of the time.

If we are only calling Sets here or maybe KQ we are folding way to much in that ICM situation

I would check back the flop. Awful fold.

Theory call, reasonable exploit to fold based on PF size and timing tells. Even though we block AK, I bet you see a lot of it here, and not much of the missed back door hearts.

I think you can bet this flop if you intend to barrel future streets, otherwise the bet alone never gets a fold without some very specific reads. This is an odd line with AQ/ATs, I think pairs bet the flop or will check call turn, so you're hoping he's running a big bluff with Ace high even though a lot of people might just bet the flop. In theory yes we're extremely vulnerable folding here but its a 55 dollar tournament so I doubt we're being exploited.

Hi there, thank you for the time to reply.

Well I knew that in theory it's a snapcall, but honestly check call, insta lead, insta shove seem pretty strong in this situation near to the FT and rather hard to snap bluffs hands like AQ here as I don't know the vilan I went to bet vs missed flop because I know people play very poorly OOP and I would continue quite often and beside the reasons you mentioned I think he'll be playing fairly face up on this situation.

I'd like to thank everyone that replied as well.

My simulation showed that Villain is only leading ~6% on the turn, chances of him leading this turn, *and* having a balanced range are very small.

When you go down seldom used branches of the tree, it is very likely that playing an exploitative strategy is at least as good as just sticking to GTO.

I think i x back flop decent portion of the time, this being one of them. Rest of the hand seems fine.

UTG checking this flop isn't often a xf line, its likely a xc line. I dont know how often were generating folds even against AK/AQ/AJ. Obviously TT+ won't fold.

Turn is fine, river fold is fine.

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The river is a clear call based on the action and your hand. The fact that he has you outchipped late in the tournament makes it more of a call, because he is more likely to be bluffing. An ace or a king is a great card for him to bluff with. This is online and anonymous tables, so I do not see how you can have enough of a read to counter all that.

Snap call river.