Interesting hand of the day for me:

3$ 9player SNG regular, blind 50-100. I have QJ of on big blind with 3000 chips.
Solid (2200 chips) OTG bet 250. I called.
Flop came: Q 3 8 rainbow. I check, Solid bet 250. I called.
Turn: J, I bet 450, Solid jam.
Any thoughts?

I hate your turn donk.
I could probably give 50 reasons but here's a couple

You miss a ton of value when he bets draws and weaker hands ott when you x

You tip him off about the strength of your hand and make it very easy for him to play v your face up range

by taking all of the strong hands out of your turn X range he can probably barrel at will and crush you because you didn't leave yourself strong enough hands to defend v his front door aggression ie bet bet bet.

You'd probably argue that you call enough to stop that but calling enough - and calling enough with strong enough hands to still be good v B/B/B lines are two VERY different things

Now when I think about it, i do agree that betting the turn is a bad idea. My thinking at the point is: I was against KK/AA/AQ/KQ, and I don't want any flush or straight draw to get there on the river. 910 or 33/88/QQ are also possible. When he shoved, i realized top 2 pairs can't beat much but I guess i could not fold it. I called the shove and he showed me QQ . Oh well, lesson learnt.

can you explain what do you mean by miss a ton of value when he bets draws and weaker hands when i bet the turn? should i bet to prevent him from drawing?

All the hands that have good equity ie decent draws will bet FOR you when you check, as well as some weaker bluffs. In short, his betting range will contain more hands that you have HUGE equity against than the hands that he will continue v a bet from you.
By x/c, you keep his range wider and weaker.

FWIW, he has a TON more Qx than you give him, it's like you assume he steals 10% from the btn, when he steals more like 40% probably.

Re his shove, as played I'm NEVER folding, he has 1 set QQ, 1 set JJ 3 set 88, 3 set 33.
He will occasionally shove draws/AK so I think we have to call at this point.


The important point here:

If he calls down with 1pr, you actually think you played the hands well because you stacked him - when in reality - with that hand he was going to always stack that hand whatever line you took.

If he shows you a rare set - which is simply a cooler at this depth- you post the hand because you lost - so you think you did something bad.

When he folds to your bet - you win the hand and never think about it again - this is the part where you actually cost yourself money - but it's the part where you would never think about it.

What I'm driving at as you can probably imagine is that you are being VERY results oriented, and not thinking enough about his range for soing different things.
When you do think about his range your estimates aren't very realistic.
So - I would spend some time going through your HM db - if you don't use HM or PT then I would just buy that for sure.
Go through your DB - filter for hands that went to showdown - and try to predict what hands people have in different spots. This will give you agood starting point on putting villain on a range, then you can build strategy to make the most money v that range.

Thanks a lot. Its helpful.