Home game playing a single table tournament for league points, $50 buy-in, pays $250, $100, $50. Seven handed, villain and hero are #1 and #2 in chips.

Hero: LAG image, ~80BB
Villain: TAG reg, ~100BB

I open in the hijack for 4bb with AKo. Folds to button/villain who calls. Blinds fold. Villain has 3b me 3 or 4 times and then cbet on flops I've missed and won each pot. I haven't seen him 3b other players or cbet them nearly as frequently, which makes me think he is targeting me. Normally he is tight and almost nitty, but with the softer than normal table he is limping and playing more pots than normal.

Flop is AT2 rainbow. (9.5bb)

I lead for 6bb, villain calls.

Turn is 4o. (21.5bb)

I lead again for 14bb, villain jams to 70bb. Pot is 105bb, 56bb/all-in to call. Hero?

Are you saying that it's a rainbow board ott? Would change hand imo if there were two of one suit on the board.

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Yes, rainbow flop, turn "completed" the rainbow so to speak.

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Imo this makes the bet incredibly polarized. In terms of hands you beat Villain may be shoving Ax worse than you, but what else other than a pure bluff do you beat? I get that single table tournaments should incentive looser shoves but given the line I dont think you are going to see any medium value hands here. This really can't be anything but a very weak or a very strong hand. Without any information I make a fold against someone I've seen play tight in the past. Would try to get him to talk if possible.

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nh if u folded turn. unlikely ppl are bluffing enough in this spot to call and I assume he isn't bad enough to jam AJ-AQ there for what he thinks is value
AA, TT, 22 maybe, AT, A4s, A2s, A4o + A2o maybe, all in his range. Have a hard time finding enough bluffs to justify a call even w/o ICM considerations.

Based off experience with this player, I felt AA and TT are highly likely to be 3b pre. You are correct that he isn't bad enough to jam TPGK for value. He's one of the better regs in our group.

This was my exact thinking in-game. It's either AT/A2/22 or air/weak holding. The board runout makes it easy to eliminate broadway draws, since there are no BD flush draws OTT.

What bluffs are there? Can this be anything other than the very narrow range of AT/A2/22? (I doubt he floats with 44).

EDIT: I should have included A4 in villain's value range.

As a rule of thumb when players (especially recs) check raise the turn they almost always have 2 pairs of better. so in my experience this is a clear fold

I'd say you're f'd. KQ/QJ would do this nearly never so it's a matter of him punting off with piles of TP hands which it appears he wouldn't do. I'd say this is only value and there's a possibility he doesn't even have AJ/AQ here.

I agree with this, but in this hand villain was on the button and just raised, not check/raise.

Here was my range and thought process before my decision:

AT makes sense pre. The flop call and turn shove are incongruous. If he has such a strong hand, why go huge on the turn? I'm drawing to 3 outs if my kicker is an overcard. Does he think I will pay him off with AJ+? If yes, why go huge here? I've already barreled twice, there's a good chance I will again on the river. If I check river, he can still bet after me. AT is possible but I discount it.

A2 makes sense pre. Shoving does prevent his hand from being counterfeited if the board pairs. Also, every card in the deck is an overcard, so if Hero shoves river he is in a tight spot. A2 is a more likely hand than AT.

AA/TT are likely 3b from this player and usually would have waited another street to extract more value. I don't think these hands are likely.

22 makes sense pre but like the sets above, would likely have waited for another street to extract value. Slightly more likely than AA/TT, but not likely.

Broadways KQ/KJ/QJ would not be this aggressive drawing to 4 outs. Close to 0% he turns up with these.

AQ/AJ would be a weird shove and not what I expect from this player. Too much SDV to turn these hands into bluffs and they aren't strong enough to be value bets. Possible, but I discount them heavily.

33,55-99, JJ/QQ these would be bluffing hands that he knows are no good. If I have TPBK I can fold to a shove. But if he gets called he is basically screwed. 33 and 55 have a few extra outs with a straight draw, but not much.

What is right/wrong with my thinking here?

:| Your thinking looks spot on. Not much makes sense here. 66 is a pretty useful note!

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