Glitlr's Well - A retired poker player - Page 4 - STT Poker Strategy

zerosum79 · 06-12-2012, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glitlr

If a man approached you and says the following, which would you take...
"I will give you $10 now or you can expect $20 later."

Let the debate ensue.

Depends on two factors.
1. How long is later?
2. How confidently can you expect it?

If later is 10 min later, with 100% confidence. I will wait. I can never double my money in 10 min with no risk in a normal investment.

However, if later is 100 years, inflation alone dictates that $10 now is worth more than $20 later.

I my overall answer: I would almost always take $10 now if either later was more than a few days later, or <80% confidence.

zero

overcall · 06-12-2012, 04:33 PM

So with all of this anti-EV and anti-long run talk, are you going to change your name? G.ood L.uck I.n T.he N.ow?

Glitlr · 06-12-2012, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zerosum79

Depends on two factors.
1. How long is later?
2. How confidently can you expect it?

If later is 10 min later, with 100% confidence. I will wait. I can never double my money in 10 min with no risk in a normal investment.

However, if later is 100 years, inflation alone dictates that $10 now is worth more than $20 later.

I my overall answer: I would almost always take $10 now if either later was more than a few days later, or <80% confidence.

zero

exactly, you got the right idea when you asked "how long is later?" that's why all the man says is............ "you can expect $20 later"

thats all the info you have

Glitlr · 06-12-2012, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by overcall

So with all of this anti-EV and anti-long run talk, are you going to change your name? G.ood L.uck I.n T.he N.ow?

ya it's kinda ironic that i believe the complete opposite of my screenname lol.

Rusemandingo · 06-12-2012, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glitlr

Hey. It's ok, everyone has their own opinion. What about coaches who are literally full time coaches and don't play at all so they can put food on the table? More respect, less respect?

or

lol

I wouldn't necessarily say I hate AIEV (did I use that exact word before? oops if I did). What I mean is, AIEV or even EV (red or green) don't mean anything. I'll give you an example...

Say a guy has a great green and redline (converged or will eventually converge, either way) and it's 10k. Awesome! 10k! But what if that player is also down 10k in cash games that is unrelated to the original graph? His net profit is 0. Even if you have the biggest EV graph in the world, it means nothing (besides self-validation that you are a winning player) if you never actually get the money. (that's why I used FTP as an example). There are plenty of FTP guys (I'm included in there too) who have money locked up. So it doesn't matter how much someone earned on FTP, they don't have the money.

When I coach, I use this example a lot...

If a man approached you and says the following, which would you take...
"I will give you $10 now or you can expect $20 later."

Let the debate ensue.

Dont get me wrong. Im not gonna begrudge anyone who is doing honest work to provide for themselves. Though it doesnt really make a difference to me if youre providing for your family or getting money for hookers and blow, a dollar less profit for me is a dollar less profit for me. Im friendly with people i play against and would prefer to never play them again. As a full time coach and training site operator, you have the ability to do a lot more damage to my bottom line than any one player. Very greedy view i realize, but i am a professional poker player

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeSchmo

If you were forced to back on the following players, which would you choose?

Player A 5,000 SNGs, 0% ROI, 5% EV adjusted ROI
Player B 5,000 SNGs, 5% ROI, 0% EV adjusted ROI

Assume both played the same buyins, same timeframe etc and you are not allowed to get any more info before deciding.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glitlr

What a great question.

I'd say neither.

What I want to know is the value of "I" in ROI before thinking more. However, you did pose the idea that it's same buy in same everything and I can't get more info. So with that said, I'd go with Player B because real winnings are greater than theoretical winnings.

Dont see how you can be serious here. Were not asking you whom you would have liked to stake for those 5k games, were asking who you think is more likely to have the most profit in next 5k games. I realize you cant spend Sklansky bucks, but redline is a quicker way of getting to your "true" winrate than greenline. Thats what i meant by taking it for what it is. One of the most important parts of being a pro is choosing the most profitable games to play. You really dont see how having a tool that will converge on "true" winrate 2-3x faster is going to be useful for this purpose?

Love the debate

grindtolive · 06-12-2012, 06:26 PM

Imo there is no question.How can you put your money knowing that a player is a loosing player?Running at 0% ev while he actually has 5% winnings instantly means that when red meet green he will be -2% at least for sure

On the other hand when the player with 5% ev runs good will get at least to 6-7% which would be the true winrate.Red line in stts determines if you are winner or not because over a 10k sample you will meet the 95% of situations that will occur generally

What it was not accurate in red line is how the play differs per player when running bad or good.Because when you run bad you never play A game for more than 500 game so your red line will drop more than it should.On the other hand when you run hot you play good most of times so your line steadily grows

To sum up if i have a gun in my head i think the obviously choice is player 1.Even if he continuoue his breakeven bad luck he will have profit from vip bonuses BUT i never saw a sample of 10k stts that lines never crossed.Maybe i will be the first one

Gramps · 06-12-2012, 07:11 PM

Let's say you have $1,000 to stake a Lottery player, and that's the only thing you can use it for. You will get 25% of any profit above net breakeven.

Players A & B each started playing the Lottery 25 years ago, and have played 20,000 times ($1/ticket) each over that time/under the same structure & rules.

Player A has a lifetime ROI of -90%, having made a few smaller scores.

Player B binked a big jackpot once and has a lifetime ROI of +50,000% over that sample size

Assuming no chicancery/riggidness in the lottery process, do you care who you stake?

If you do care who you stake, how much of your 25% share would you give up to choose your preferred player over the other one?

Kvaughan · 06-12-2012, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glitlr

AH! thanks for that nice compliment.

I coach full time now.

What's weird is (well, without sounding 'braggy') is that I think I'm a much better coach than a player. I think there is a big reason for this though, and it's because I was fortunate enough to be surrounded by good public speakers growing up.

One thing people don't know about me is that in high school I made the California State Finals in Speech and Debate. I won the final round but got 6th overall

. But along the way, I met people who helped me learn how to speak really well. I was friends with a guy who won the national championship in the same category as Oprah Winfrey (she won the exact same event when she was younger)! And I was good friends with a guy who is now a professional actor and has appeared on CSI: NY and is currently a character on a show on ABC (bah, can't think of the name). Knowing these guys was huge in my development as a talker because they were so freaking good at what they did. I hope that even 1% of it rubbed off on me.

As a side story, the year before I made the finals, I ended up getting 8th place. Top 7 make finals. In fact, when they posted the top 7 people who made it to the final round, one name was crossed off and replaced with someone else...

...how's that for bubbling?

That's funny. I went to state in policy debate twice in High school and judged debate for all 4 years of college. I knew there was a reason I liked you.

mattgood9 · 06-12-2012, 10:54 PM

I just started playing $15 reg-speed 6-max SnGs on stars. My roi on $7 games is about 24% over 1000 games. Thus far, my roi on $15 games is about 11% on a 500 game sample. I normally play 1 table 6-max SnGs.

1. I do not have HEM, would you say that it would significantly improve my roi + hourly rate (I play a maximum of 4 tables at a time, but usually just play 2)?

2. Are 18 man and 12 man 6-max SnGs more profitable than 1-table 6-max?

3. Any tips for avoiding tilt? Whenever I get bored or tired, I seem to end up playing poker, but cash games (which I know I am not good at)?

Glitlr · 06-13-2012, 02:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rusemandingo

Dont get me wrong. Im not gonna begrudge anyone who is doing honest work to provide for themselves. Though it doesnt really make a difference to me if youre providing for your family or getting money for hookers and blow, a dollar less profit for me is a dollar less profit for me. Im friendly with people i play against and would prefer to never play them again. As a full time coach and training site operator, you have the ability to do a lot more damage to my bottom line than any one player. Very greedy view i realize, but i am a professional poker player

Dont see how you can be serious here. Were not asking you whom you would have liked to stake for those 5k games, were asking who you think is more likely to have the most profit in next 5k games. I realize you cant spend Sklansky bucks, but redline is a quicker way of getting to your "true" winrate than greenline. Thats what i meant by taking it for what it is. One of the most important parts of being a pro is choosing the most profitable games to play. You really dont see how having a tool that will converge on "true" winrate 2-3x faster is going to be useful for this purpose?

Love the debate

I've heard redline is 4.4x more accurate than green, but I don't really care. IF i had to choose, I'd choose player B. But realistically, I'd want to flip through 5 games of each person.

I think providing for family is much more important than purchasing a hooker.

Glitlr · 06-13-2012, 02:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gramps

Let's say you have $1,000 to stake a Lottery player, and that's the only thing you can use it for. You will get 25% of any profit above net breakeven.

Players A & B each started playing the Lottery 25 years ago, and have played 20,000 times ($1/ticket) each over that time/under the same structure & rules.

Player A has a lifetime ROI of -90%, having made a few smaller scores.

Player B binked a big jackpot once and has a lifetime ROI of +50,000% over that sample size

Assuming no chicancery/riggidness in the lottery process, do you care who you stake?

If you do care who you stake, how much of your 25% share would you give up to choose your preferred player over the other one?

Isn't this like saying "what weighs more a ton of feathers or a ton of bricks?"

Glitlr · 06-13-2012, 02:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kvaughan

That's funny. I went to state in policy debate twice in High school and judged debate for all 4 years of college. I knew there was a reason I liked you.

awesome!!

Glitlr · 06-13-2012, 03:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mattgood9

I just started playing $15 reg-speed 6-max SnGs on stars. My roi on $7 games is about 24% over 1000 games. Thus far, my roi on $15 games is about 11% on a 500 game sample. I normally play 1 table 6-max SnGs.

1. I do not have HEM, would you say that it would significantly improve my roi + hourly rate (I play a maximum of 4 tables at a time, but usually just play 2)?

2. Are 18 man and 12 man 6-max SnGs more profitable than 1-table 6-max?

3. Any tips for avoiding tilt? Whenever I get bored or tired, I seem to end up playing poker, but cash games (which I know I am not good at)?

1. You should definitely work on adding games. But don't rush it. It also depends what your personal goals are.

2. I'm not really sure about the 12 vs 6, but I'd venture a guess and say 12 because 18s are better than 9s.

3. Find something that relaxes you. When you feel that icky tilty feeling coming on, do that activity. For me, it was walking my dogs.

mattgood9 · 06-13-2012, 03:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glitlr

1. You should definitely work on adding games. But don't rush it. It also depends what your personal goals are.

2. I'm not really sure about the 12 vs 6, but I'd venture a guess and say 12 because 18s are better than 9s.

3. Find something that relaxes you. When you feel that icky tilty feeling coming on, do that activity. For me, it was walking my dogs.

Thanks for the advice. I will definitely apply it (especially the part about stopping tilt).

My goal is to make $20k by the end of next April. I am doing this along with completing my last year of university. Since May 1st, I was able to build my bankroll up from $50 to $1000 (it was about $1200 until I tilted a few days ago :P).

Any sort of idea how many hours per week I'll need to play in order to reach this goal?

Also, what bankroll would be sufficient to protect me from downswings when I move up to $30 SnGs/lower stakes MTTs (I have some success with those)?

khublakhan · 06-13-2012, 03:57 AM

Hi Glitlr

Interesting to read from the perspective of a retired player from the outside looking in - so to speak

A few questions

- given where poker is at in 2012, do you feel the professional player is now dealing with a severe diminishing returns scenario, which is unlikely to reverse itself?

- how would you feel if your son (hyopthetical as I am not sure if you are a father?) said he wanted to become a poker player?

- you said you felt much better with life once you stopped playing poker, how do you reconcile that with being a poker coach?

- does anyone truly understand the red line in stt poker? Does it really matter or is it just a dangerous red herring?

Thanks

P.S - are you related to Gary Glitter?