I've been reviewing some spots with Icmizer to get a proper idea of my ICM EV on shoving marginal hands. Against players with tight calling ranges of 8% or even lower (which applies to nearly everyone at my stakes) I've noticed MANY hands show a positive ICM EV%.
In this hand for example, Q6s is a +.17 shove, and A10s is only +.33



My question is, roughly what percent +EV is too marginal to shove? Is +.33% a good enough EV in such a spot as above?

I understand that many other factors affect such decisions, but I was wondering if there's a general advised guideline on this.

Thanks

you can always minraise.

Whether to pass up on seemingly +EV spots depends on how much equity you have to gain in future hands, or this hand when you fold.

+EV is by definition EVpush-EVfold (this hand), so sounds rather meaningless to me

Just because a spot is +ev, it does not mean it is the optimal play. Like ruse said, if you think you will have better spots in the future you may want to fold the marginal +ev hands.

Fwiw, I think that hand is a bad spot to shove. At 11bb you have plenty of opportunity to find a better spot. 10bb is close and 9bb happily shoving.

thats why i said seemingly +EV. A lot of people dont take into account how much equity they stand to gain in future hands, or if people are likely to clash in this hand when we fold.

That may be your def of +EV, but my EVfold take into account all those other factors.

Hm so you assume my EVfold doesnt take into account our equity growth when other 2 stacks clash, unlike yours?

Ok i misunderstood what you said. Also didnt see he said icmizer, so yeah it should alrady take into account actions after fold. Though you def need to play around with the defaults.

OT, do you use equlibrium push and call ranges as your defaults for actions after folds?

The marginal value of your stack over time is not taken into consideration.

If you fold, what probability of the time does the other small stack go bust? How is moving from a 10bb stack to a 9bb-ante stack going to affect your opponent's calling ranges.

Will equally profitable opportunities be harder or easier to find if you fold? Thats what it comes down to.

The whole point of EV calculations is to determine what's best for the long term. If it's +EV, then you should do it. If it's -EV, you should not. If it's 0EV, it doesn't matter what you choose.

I think that those who want you to wait for a "better spot", aren't comfortable with the EV calculations. The fact is you can change the variables of the calculation and possibly turn this +EV spot into a -EV spot pretty quickly.

For example, what's the EV if their calling ranges are 9% or 10%?

Or you can look at it differently: What would their calling ranges have to be to make this -EV? Unless they are bots, people will change their calling ranges if you've been active or not. So you have to take this into account.

At the end of your new calculations, if it's still +EV, this is a good spot and you should take it.

+1 to minraise.But i like jaming here because both should be very tight here

I sometimes think it is helpful to walk people through what it actually means to "only" be 0.xx% +EV.

In a 9 man, $11+1 buyin, the prize pool is $99.

Therefore "only" 0.17% is a 0.0017*99 = $0.1683. Not a lot of money right? Well if you look at it in terms of your buyin, it is a 1.5% ROI increase!

"Only" 0.33% is even bigger. Without doing the math from the last calculation you can tell it is approximately a 3%ROI decision in your favor.

Assuming you have set accurate calling ranges, if you are passing on edges this large by folding, you are making a big mistake. You are giving up so much value in the long run you will never optimize your overall ROI. It only takes passing on one of these decisions in the long run to have a drastic affect on your overall ROI for the games in the long run.

Typical rule of thumb, 0.1% edge is about 1%ROI for a standard 9man. You should almost never consider passing up anything over this IMO.

zero

Ill pass up .1s all day if its for all my chips and im a lot better than the field. People make some godawful mistakes on and near the bubble and keeping your stack alive to take advantage of those is a must. Heck, ill pass up a .1 HU if i know the guys is playing suboptimally enough.

Theres also other things to consider. Like say you have a +.1 call vs his range. But if his range is 10% tighter than you think it'll be -.8, and if its 10% wider than you think, itll only be +.18.

Yeah, there's a big difference between a +0.X% call (with 100% chance of busting when you lose) and a +0.X% push (with only say 10-15% chance of busting when you're called and lose).

You'd be a huge loser in SNGs (due to rake) if you were offered a +0.1% call every SNG 1st hand and took it.

Juk

There are different views on this Topic and i dont know who is right.
Basically if you would play one Tournament a day with big fish around then i agree that you should take a Edge, but if you play online 100 games a day then you just see one Situation after the other. You dont really play the tournament but just one EV Situation after the other. Dont know if its understandable what i want to say So if you bust out you just play the next tournament with a similar Playerpool than the last Tournament. In the long run all these little 0.1% Spots will add up and the future Game where you could get better spots is the next tournament.
But i agree that we should take edges if we dont know exactly the Ranges of the other players, because a very marginal shove could be very -ev if we assume the wrong Ranges.
But if we know for sure that our shove or call is +ev we should take the Spot.