This is a spin-off from
this thread, I figured it would make sense to post this separately.
Basically, support for bounty/knockouts for beta version of HRC breaks down to two parts:
1) Actually awarding any bounties for eliminations that occur within the calculation scope.
2) Estimating how bounties paid out in the remaining tournament affect the equities.
The first part is very straightforward conceptually, it's just an implementation of the bounty rules. This is completely defined by the rules of the game, no need for any estimates or approximations. If player A busts player B then you award him an additional $ amount, easy. (Actually implementing this took the lion's share of the development time though.)
The second part is more interesting, we have to come up with an approximation how the remaining bounties will be awarded. We currently assume that all players who eventually finish better than n'th place have an equal chance of having eliminated the player who finished in n'th.
So the 1st player always gets the bounties for himself and the player finishing 2nd, plus 50% he eliminates the player in 3rd place, 33% he eliminates the player in 4th, etc.
So let's assume we have 5 players left:
avg_knockouts(1st) = 1/4 + 1/3 + 1/2 + 2
avg_knockouts(2nd) = 1/4 + 1/3 + 1/2
avg_knockouts(3rd) = 1/4 + 1/3
avg_knockouts(4th) = 1/4
avg_knockouts(5th) = 0
We get the following results from the calculation above [1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th]:
[3.0833, 1.0833, 0.5833, 0.2500, 0.0000]
If we have stacks of [10, 20, 30, 40, 50] and we do an ICM calculation with the structure above we get the following results:
[0.4143, 0.7684, 1.0475, 1.2822, 1.4874]
This means that we estimate the stack of 50 would on average get 1.487 bounties in the remaining tournament, while the stack of 20 would only get 0.768 bounties, etc.
In the overall calculation the bounty-value for these estimated future knockouts is added to the ICM estimates for the regular prize pool to get the resulting overall equity estimate including bounties.
Last edited by AMT; 08-12-2016 at 02:11 PM.