Merge - $10+$0.80|<> NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 915.00
MP+1: 2,350.00
CO: 1,698.00
BTN: 3,205.00
Hero (SB): 1,325.00
BB: 3,615.00
UTG: 1,255.00
UTG+1: 637.00

MP posts ante 5.00, MP+1 posts ante 5.00, CO posts ante 5.00, BTN posts ante 5.00, Hero posts ante 5.00, BB posts ante 5.00, UTG posts ante 5.00, UTG+1 posts ante 5.00, Hero posts SB 50.00, BB posts BB 100.00

Pre Flop: (pot: 190.00) Hero has K A

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 300.00, fold, fold, Hero???

MP+1 stats at the time were 24/0 after 24 hands. A very small sample, I know, but 0% raise. Should I be shoving this or folding? I am not sure as to how good of a hand AK is in DONs, it is good against most raising hands, but I really do not want to get into a flip (in general I mean, not this hand specifically)

I could go either way on this really, but fold is probably the correct play. There's really too many pairs in his range and I don't think we have enough chips to get him to fold frequently enough. It's still pretty early and if this were like 2 blind levels later I'd never fold AK, but we're going to have plenty of steal opportunities and this guy has some strange stats so I'd probably play this cautiously.

i'm shoving, his sample isn't near big enough to convince me otherwise.

Shove is only going to be +ev with fold equity.

which we have more than enough of to make this profitable

+1 JP. Vs some villains we have 0 fold equity here, but you also have plenty vs some of them. I'm just not folding here w/o a better read

Our opponent would have to be pretty bad to fold anything getting 2.5:1 and having 1k chips on us.

What? In DONs, 2.5:1 folds are very commonplace and often correct. Besides I don't even think it's 2:1 here. Calling off with an Ax hand would be horrendous for example.

I'd shove for sure. Randoms with 24/0 through only 24 hands can show up with A5s etc. Not enough sample to put him on a tiny range.

My bad on the pot odds, he needs about 55% equity to call profitably

Shove here. You have AK, some fold equity, and not enough hands to think he must have a monster for raising here. Folding AK here is losing too much value. Also worth considering you only have 13bbs here. You need to be making some moves soon, and AK is amazing here.

I think in a lot of these spots I would be more interested in if this guy is a fish, reg, etc as opposed to 24 hands on him. This is a great spot to chip up (we def have FE) or even be called by worse at times. I find this really hard to get away from, esp since we dont have that large of a stack and there are still 8 left. I could be wrong but I'd assume this is a pretty clear shove.

His raise size shows he is most likely a fish, doubt a reg opens 3x here. If he is a reg and happened to just do 3x I'll laugh if he folds to us and a nice regtard note. I'd put his range on ak/ jj+ thats never folding to us if he's a reg. I'm shoving because he's most likely a fish.

Yeah honestly that's pretty much what I think about the situation too, but I don't know how we have any fold equity on a fish. With no fold equity I'm really struggling to find a range that we're trying to get it in against. I mean we're hoping he's like AT+ with no pairs or something for us to be breakeven with no fold equity. It's all a question of fold equity obviously and apparently everyone thinks we have some, though I'm not sure it's enough. If this is a loose aggro table I'd be 100% on board with shoving, but at most $10 games you can win without ever calling yourself into a showdown so I'm really hesitant to be making this decision this early in the game when we have plenty of chips to make steals with.

I really don't know if we have enough fold equity either but I think you may overestimate our (collectively, op or everyone else's) edge. You're a great DoN player from the posts I've seen you make on this forum but I on the other hand I'm already freaking out given our stack size and the blinds and # of people still left. I'm looking for any breakeven spot I can find realizing the rest of the game is gonna be tough and icm overvalues our stack as the blinds keep rising.

Well here's a crazy idea just as an alternative to shoving. We could flat with the intention of donk jamming a majority of flops because we believe we'll have more fold equity on a lot of boards than we do pre flop. I'm thinking about jamming like every Txx/Jxx/Qxx/Kxx/Axx board that's not a QJx board and any board that gives us a wheel draw or flush draw. If we really think we have no fold equity pre flop and no noticeable edge on a shove then there's really no disadvantage to going post flop imo. If nothing else we get to have another move available to us to level regs with...