$114: bubble quiz - MTT Poker Strategy - Multi Table Tournament Poker Forum

Everyone left is a winning player. I ran it and know the "correct answer".
Snap call, meh call, fold?

*Edit, UTG doesn't get crazy with bubble owns but knows he can push fairly wide.

Poker Stars $105+$9 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds - 4 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

BIGMICKG (CO): t4325
BongBob (BTN): t2680
slipperily (SB): t3620
Hero (BB): t2875

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with J

BIGMICKG raises to t4200, 2 folds, Hero?

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04-29-2008 , 09:03 AM

JacJacAtk

adept

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,064

Well, I don't think it could possibly be more than a meh call, depending on the specific player, and I don't have a history with villain to go on. OTOH there are certainly winning regulars (at the $60s anyway) against whom it's a snap-fold.

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04-29-2008 , 09:07 AM

JacJacAtk

adept

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,064

Or is the point that if he thinks you'll call with KJo you shouldn't but if he thinks you won't you should?

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04-29-2008 , 09:15 AM

hav0c

adept

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 936

snapfold..

i just ran it and i'm right.. with a short button, i'm not too ecstatic about making a -$EV call either

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04-29-2008 , 09:16 AM

jurrasstoil

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Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 8,743

Albatros says: call.

On my level I would fold, because they are never pushing wide enough here.
In a 114 I call if I think he is pushing... dunno... 60 or 70%. If BTN and SB don't push a lot themselves, I might fold and hope i can push bvb.
Even if you win, you will not be able to pwn the bubble alot because CO will post half his stack as BB next hand and call with ATC.

meh call if you think he is pushing 70% or something and fold if you think he is pushing tighter.

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04-29-2008 , 09:20 AM

hav0c

adept

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 936

so weird, b/c alba plays 15+1 still right? and no one in 15+1 is shoving this wide in the CO... lol.

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04-29-2008 , 10:05 AM

Doublez-Down

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Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 7,242

What's with the gay raise to 4200 instead of just shoving? At work so don't what the "correct" answer is, but gut tells me it's a fold and we need something like JJ+. I know I'm not crazy about folding, but I'm less crazy about bubbling with KJo.

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04-29-2008 , 10:11 AM

Rebellz

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Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 2,380

istafold

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04-29-2008 , 10:20 AM

Doublez-Down

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Rebellz

istafold

KK+?

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04-29-2008 , 10:55 AM

#10

DDBeast

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 3,698

Kind of close, I probably fold. He shouldn't be going completely crazy with shoves since if he calls and loses he's crippled, especially if he expects everyone to call with KJ.

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04-29-2008 , 11:41 AM

#11

AbsolutCam

adept

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 1,098

i think its usually a fold, could be a meh call if you have him shoving somewhere close to >50%, but to me that seems sortof unlikely this time with these stacks and an UTG shove from a winning reg who "doesn't get crazy with bubble owns".

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04-29-2008 , 11:52 AM

#12

Slim Pickens

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The problem with using S-C ranges here is that they will up the value of hands like K2o, whilst lowering 98s. In reality, UTG's range probably includes 98s before it includes K2o because 98s plays better against a lot of calling ranges.

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04-29-2008 , 11:58 AM

#13

Little John

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 4,596

it is a pretty gross spot as i think mick is pushing a pretty decent amount, but i think he folds a big chunk of the hands you dominate.

with that said, you are gonna blind out before bob and if mick gets the pot he is gonna pwn.

i have not run it, but i guess it is a neg ev call that you should make.

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04-29-2008 , 04:49 PM

#14

ryanghall

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Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 6,832

I don't think you can call this.

Ryan

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04-29-2008 , 05:24 PM

#15

Little John

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 4,596

neg 1.1% vs 22+,A2+,K5o+,K2s+, Q4s+,Q7o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s.

you are shortest and you are blinding out first, but you could also push next hand into bongbob if you get anything decent...

i do have to agree that folding is best, but a call is not too bad. neg 1% calls on the bubble when you are short and gonna blind out first are not the end of the world.

also, let us know what he had.

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04-29-2008 , 05:31 PM

#16

CheeseMoney

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,840

I'm sure this is a call ICM wise unless villain is a nit and not pwning. I can't imagine he's pushing < 60% of his hands here. I'm guessing that this is breakeven if he's shoving about 50%. I'll have to run the #'s later. That said, we may have to be a little tighter than ICM dictates because button may still feel a need to make a move, but frankly, its tough to rely on that when we're alternating with him for the 4th spot.

I call and crush his K7o.

[Edit] John I don't know villain, but I would think he would push wider.

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04-29-2008 , 06:27 PM

#17

Dan87

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 10,079

"You are a professional and this is what I can do to you! On your bike!"

Id probably fold if villain is nitty, call if he has been raising a lot since 5 handed. This seems like the most marginal spot since KQ is an instacall for me and KT is an instafold, really tough hand

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04-29-2008 , 06:50 PM

#18

drzen

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 8,264

I'll grunch. Snap fold. I don't see how he is ever pushing wide enough to make this a call.

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04-29-2008 , 07:44 PM

#19

h1nt

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,299

easy call against him

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04-29-2008 , 07:45 PM

#20

h1nt

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,299

i think he pushes here about 60%,maybe wider,then its easy to call with light +ev now (about +0.3) then to wait when he will own the whole table on the bubble and to get a lottery - who will be ate by blinds first

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04-29-2008 , 07:47 PM

#21

h1nt

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,299

Quote:

Originally Posted by Little John

i dont think bigmic will allow you to push, because he will do his best in this situation to push and push more and more.

and why do u think his range is SO tight here?

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04-29-2008 , 07:54 PM

#22

jurrasstoil

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Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 8,743

Quote:

Originally Posted by h1nt

i dont think bigmic will allow you to push, because he will do his best in this situation to push and push more and more.

and why do u think his range is SO tight here?

Migmickg is in the BB next hand, it's hard for him to stop you from pushing into him besides some metagame chatstuff maybe.

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04-30-2008 , 12:40 PM

#23

darinvg

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,569

Well, I reluctantly made the call but would call again for these reasons:
The blinds are huge and I only have 4BBs.
All players are fairly good.
His range should be pretty wide.

Breakeven is actually 53% according to SNGPT and he had Q7 so I don't think it's too far off.

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04-30-2008 , 12:55 PM

#24

fisheater11

old hand

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 1,270

Quote:

Originally Posted by darinvg

vwant a cookie?

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04-30-2008 , 04:20 PM

#25

CheeseMoney

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,840

Quote:

Originally Posted by CheeseMoney

I'm guessing that this is breakeven if he's shoving about 50%. I'll have to run the #'s later. That said, we may have to be a little tighter than ICM dictates because button may still feel a need to make a move, but frankly, its tough to rely on that when we're alternating with him for the 4th spot.

I call and crush his K7o.

Quote:

Originally Posted by darinvg

Breakeven is actually 53% according to SNGPT and he had Q7 so I don't think it's too far off.

Thanks for running this. I meant to but have been real busy. I feel vindicated.