Calling a shove early in 6 player STT?
05-09-2017
, 01:39 AM
50 went in preflop.
Its 755 to win a pot of 2010 = 37.56%.
If he has a made flush then we know he doesn't block any of our outs, so we have 7 FH outs on the turn from 47, not 49 unknown cards (his cards are "known" as misses so we can remove them). Again on the river we have 10 outs of from 46. Chance of FH = 1- chance of miss = 1- (40/47 * 36/46) = 33.40%.
You're only a few percent off from calling even if you absolutely knew he had a flush. This has to be a call.
I also agree with Pokerbrud that this is rarely a strong flush (it may be a weak flush scared of a 4th
though).
More interesting question is whether we would also call AK here.
Its 755 to win a pot of 2010 = 37.56%.
If he has a made flush then we know he doesn't block any of our outs, so we have 7 FH outs on the turn from 47, not 49 unknown cards (his cards are "known" as misses so we can remove them). Again on the river we have 10 outs of from 46. Chance of FH = 1- chance of miss = 1- (40/47 * 36/46) = 33.40%.
You're only a few percent off from calling even if you absolutely knew he had a flush. This has to be a call.
I also agree with Pokerbrud that this is rarely a strong flush (it may be a weak flush scared of a 4th
though).More interesting question is whether we would also call AK here.
Last edited by LektorAJ; 05-09-2017 at 01:57 AM.