I used to have a better understanding of ICM play, would appreciate some help with this one.

Home game 2-table tourney. Four players left, technically in the money, but 4th place is just $60. 3rd pays $150, 2nd pays $350, 1st pays $590.

Blinds 1000/2000
Hero 34k
Button 30k
SB 15k
BB 9k

Hero opens to 6k with AKo.

Button shoves. This player is awful at poker. Has never read a book, never will, has no concept of the money ladder, bubble, let alone ICM. He's rarely this deep in our game. He would tend to call with medium pairs, unlikely he would shove AA/KK. I think his shoving range here is mostly KJ+, Ax (and I mean ANY ace), and JJ/QQ. Hero's image is very solid and button doesn't like to play flops with me.

Because of the money ladder and chip leader status, I don't think this is a trivial decision, even if I think he's mostly doing this with hands I dominate. In fact, I suspect ICM says it is a fold? Any help with the calculation or how to estimate is appreciated. Thanks!

1150 prize pool you now have 28k chips of 84k your portion of the prize pool is 383.33. if you win you go up to 67k or 869.40 if you lose you get 60. so your risking 383.33 to win 546.70 i think you only need like 30% equity to call this off. Since your never raise folding here though just open shove and stop making easy spots hard for you. if math is wrong sorry but ya just open ship.

Insta call

Your looking at losing 90$ or at 530$ by not making the call


+theres already 7k in the pot.

If you think of folding AKo here,you might aswell fold AA,go for a beer and see if any player has busted out.

Pretty major diff between aa and ako here^

I'd take the jam. With your read on btn I wouldn't have much of a raise fold range here. Limp any playable hands you don't shove.

OP you really think villain is rejaming a2o and folding tt?

Not exactly. He's calling with pairs <= TT, jamming weak aces (yes, A2o) and kings. Really, he plays like he hates money.

Another 2+2er who shall remain anonymous helped me figure out the ICM calculations against this villain's range and against a more "typical" range. Turns out in both cases calling is +EV, especially so against this villain.

Results:

Who cares what ICM says?

for sure, play to win!!!!!!

Does BTN often ship over limps? If so then limping to induce might encourage more WAY ahead situations (he might even just raise ATC then usually fold to your limp-SHOVE). 17bb seems a bit wide to OPENshv but since you are ITM you are certainly getting called by Ax or even KQ KJ etc by an opponent who thinks you are just co-bullying with BTN, maybe?

this