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Bubble spot WCOOP main sat

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08-30-2014 , 09:31 PM

RoccoGe

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 980

payout is 2 seat to wcoop main, 3rd gets 4200, 4th 0.

everyone is a reg, with CO being a little tighter with shoves, BTN very very wide and sb probably the quitest.
is anyone folding here?

Poker Stars, $30 Buy-in (30,000/60,000 blinds, 6,000 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #30115271

BTN: 453,762 (7.6 bb)
SB: 411,364 (6.9 bb)
Hero (BB): 799,676 (13.3 bb)
CO: 957,198 (16 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J

CO raises to 951,198 and is all-in, 2 folds

Spoiler:

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

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08-30-2014 , 09:33 PM

RoccoGe

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 980

may a mod move this to HSMTT plz misclicked wrong forum lol

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08-30-2014 , 11:26 PM

zilblitz

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 391

Is the WCOOP main ticket worth 10K? If so, I plugged this into ICMIZER with a payout structure of:

1st 41.3%
2nd 41.3%
3rd 17.4%

Using Nash equilibrium as a starting point, JJ is the bottom of the profitable calling range - and this assumes CO is shoving 83%. If you scale COs shoving range to 40% (because you said CO is tighter), your calling range becomes AA/KK.

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08-31-2014 , 12:29 AM

Joshfan

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,751

wcoop main is worth $5200, making this a fairly easy fold.

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08-31-2014 , 08:32 AM

RoccoGe

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 980

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joshfan

wcoop main is worth $5200, making this a fairly easy fold.

yea main ticket is 5200

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08-31-2014 , 09:28 AM

Rusemandingo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 14,067

Feels like kk+

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08-31-2014 , 09:31 AM

suprguard

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 603

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joshfan

wcoop main is worth $5200, making this a fairly easy fold.

This is bad reasoning in my opinion. If it's a $10 sat you make the call, because it's the right thing to do, but now it's $5200 and you fold??

I think this hand is very close, but given reads and the fact that most are too tight in this spot I guess it's better to fold.

If guy knows he can shove roughly 80% then it's a +$EV call, but if he's tighter than this it's probably QQ+.

Also the fact you can shove uberwide into shorter stacks make me fold this hand.

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08-31-2014 , 10:59 AM

Joshfan

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,751

Quote:

Originally Posted by suprguard

This is bad reasoning in my opinion. If it's a $10 sat you make the call, because it's the right thing to do, but now it's $5200 and you fold??

lol, yeh using the payouts to say it's a fold here is definitely bad reasoning.

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08-31-2014 , 04:40 PM

Scrudge

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 666

Snapfold. Calling is about 300$ (2% of the prizepool) mistake.

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09-01-2014 , 02:41 AM

#10

ChiefBlackfoot

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 561

Calling would require that CO is shoving some range of 80-100% which is VERY unlikely as he would need to have no r/f range (or only a nutted QQ+ r/c range thus weakening his shove range, and he would also need to be shoving many hands that make like .05% of the prize pool which is unlikely at this stage. So just fold because ina best case scenario you won't be making much, and you should be able to get a lot of steals through comfortably down the road. +1 to whoever says KK+

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09-01-2014 , 07:52 PM

#11

p2 dog, p2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 7,536

ur gonna get better answers here anyway OP, we the ICM gurus bros.

ya, unless shover is like uber, uber wide this is a real easy fold

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09-01-2014 , 10:27 PM

#12

zilblitz

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 391

Changed payout structure in ICMIZER to:

1st 35.6%
2nd 35.6%
3rd 28.8%

...and indeed BB's calling range becomes AA,KK for Nash equilibrium - this assumes CO is pushing any two.

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09-01-2014 , 10:31 PM

#13

zilblitz

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 391

Quote:

Originally Posted by suprguard

You use the payout structure as an input in ICMIZER to model the ICM calculation - if you have a $10 buy-in tournament with the same percent payout structure as this one and exactly the same chip stacks etc etc, you would get the same ICM calculation.

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09-02-2014 , 03:15 AM

#14

suprguard

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 603

Quote:

Originally Posted by zilblitz

Ya, that's obviously what I meant.

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