Hi,

I dont know if any of you have Cardrunners EV, but would really be interested to know the more profitable option here. Should I raise fold, or shove?

If we assume villain in BB will call something like 66+ / AJs

But then will reshove over a min raise something like 22+/any broadway/ some suited connectors (25-30% range?) how can I calculate the most profitable play?

Fwiw shoving is definitely profitable in this spot, but the clash when called costs me so much in equity the other villains that fold are very happy!!

Easiest way is getting a programm like Holdemressources Calculator which can calculate raise/fold/call spots.

If you wanna do it by hand, here is how it goes:

1. You use a ICM calculator to get you various $evs. Oh and Im just illustrating vs BB.

$ev if raise/call/win (lose = 0 for us obv)
CO 20.97%
BU 33.25%
SB 17.77%
BB 28.01%

$ev succesfull steal
CO 21.42%
BU 24.82%
SB 18.25%
BB 35.52%

$ev unsuccesfull steal:
CO 22.32%
BU 21.14%
SB 19.20%
BB 37.34%


2.) Then you calculate. Lets start easy with raise/folding EV:

[P(steal)*EV(succesfull steal)] + [(1-P(steal))*EV(unsuccesfull steal)] = EV(raise/fold)

(0.7*0.2482) + (0.3*0.2114) = 0.2371 or 23.71%



3.) Raise-call, P(win)=0.5332, vs 30% range {22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,5 4s,A7o+,A5o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o}:

[P(steal)*EV(succesfull steal)] + [((1-P(steal))*P(win))*EV(raise/call/win)]
+ [((1-P(steal))*(1-P(win)))*EV(raise/call/lose)] = EV(raise/call)

(0.7*0.2482) + ((0.3*0.5332)*0.3325) + 0 = 0.2269


4.) You compare. As you can see raise/folding would clearly beat raise/calling. So, you compare raise/folding to your shoving result and you know which move is best.

You can also calculate the breakeven points which isnt much more work and is great to know.

Readless prefer raise/folding here to shoving. Especially as the second stack here and with 13bb.

This is a hand I would sometimes limp as you can definitely call or 3bet shove vs an iso from SB/BB.

Thanks for this analysis, very useful.

thank you ronny - much appreciated. I'll analyse that and post results back here.

Right so, ICM percentages as starting stacks:

21.6505
22.9815 (hero)
19.2752
36.0928

With Ronny's calcs"
Raise folding =23.71 (difference of +0.73)
Raise calling = 0.2269 (diff -0.29)
shoving = ICM heat chart says +.36 (is this %ICM equity increase?)

If it walks to BB (i fold) my equity goes to 23.09 (+0.11)

Wow! I make profit by folding?! I guess this is ICM tax of chip leader, and one of middle stacks losing a small blind?
And raise folding seems to be clearly the best play here.
Shoving marginally better than folding.
Solved?

I had SB on a 0% range, for simplicity of illustrating. So if you put him on say a 15% range things change obviously.

Raise/fold would be:

(0.55*0.2482) + (0.45*0.2114) = 0.2318 (+0.2)

which would be worse than openshoving. However you might be able to raise/call SB, so the combination of raise/call SB and raise/fold BB could beat open-shoving.