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STT Strategy Discussion about the play of single table tournaments.

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Old 05-31-2017, 05:13 PM   #1
NiallOBrien
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9max hyper, on the bubble. Call or fold?

I was thinking he was pushing very wide on account of his big stack and being on the bubble but probably should have waited for a better spot.

PokerStars Hand #171172985523: Tournament #1929247861, $3.31+$0.19 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (75/150) - 2017/05/31 21:45:52 WET [2017/05/31 16:45:52 ET]
Table '1929247861 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: HERO (772 in chips)
Seat 3: garryson66 (1128 in chips)
Seat 8: guicerbero (1069 in chips)
Seat 9: MestreStride (1531 in chips)
HERO: posts the ante 15
garryson66: posts the ante 15
guicerbero: posts the ante 15
MestreStride: posts the ante 15
HERO: posts small blind 75
garryson66: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Kc Jd]
guicerbero: folds
MestreStride: raises 1366 to 1516 and is all-in
HERO: calls 682 and is all-in
garryson66: folds
Uncalled bet (759) returned to MestreStride
*** FLOP *** [2c Jc 7c]
*** TURN *** [2c Jc 7c] [8h]
*** RIVER *** [2c Jc 7c 8h] [2s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
HERO: shows [Kc Jd] (two pair, Jacks and Deuces)
MestreStride: shows [Ah 3d] (a pair of Deuces)
HERO collected 1724 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1724 | Rake 0
Board [2c Jc 7c 8h 2s]
Seat 1: HERO (small blind) showed [Kc Jd] and won (1724) with two pair, Jacks and Deuces
Seat 3: garryson66 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: guicerbero folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: MestreStride (button) showed [Ah 3d] and lost with a pair of Deuces
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Old 06-07-2017, 05:34 AM   #2
LektorAJ
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Re: 9max hyper, on the bubble. Call or fold?

I think it's a fold.

HRC gives this a fold in FGS5 even with Villain pushing 82%, though FGS3 says its a call and most people prefer that for 4-handed play.
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Old 06-07-2017, 09:23 AM   #3
LeaksSuck
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Re: 9max hyper, on the bubble. Call or fold?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NiallOBrien View Post
I was thinking he was pushing very wide on account of his big stack and being on the bubble but probably should have waited for a better spot folded b/c 3$ villains are going to make huge mistakes in upcoming play s.t. my opt. calling range including discounted future effects is smaller, cause I'm aware the optimal range FGSx spits out is based on them using nash ranges in future hands which they won't.
fyp

Oh that just holds if u aren't weaker than them. If u are, calling is fine.

To speculate a bit: FGS model might overvalue big stack cause in spots where u could jam very wide or even 100% in nash eq in future hands, u in reality often make a mistake in doing so cause your opponents will call lighter than the surprisingly (for them) tight gto calling ranges. If some gto ranges are really loose or really tight, unaware opponents tend to deviate in the opposite direction cause they see their cards and like em or not, somewhat invariable to the situation (or better: not adaptive enough).

GL at the tables!

Last edited by LeaksSuck; 06-07-2017 at 09:33 AM.
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Old 06-07-2017, 02:22 PM   #4
LektorAJ
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Re: 9max hyper, on the bubble. Call or fold?

Yes - In this case villain won't be pushing 80% so we should be folding more.

The future errors effect is pretty important.....

It's a different type of tournament but HU in the $1 45 man tournaments (so HU against people not used to playing HU as they rarely got to in 45 mans) there used to be a lot of people who were folding more than 70%. I used to say that in theory you should just fold any hand to any villain action because they were sure to blind off (or close to it) if you just let them keep playing
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Old 06-09-2017, 04:46 PM   #5
Th4Sh4rk
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Re: 9max hyper, on the bubble. Call or fold?

its tough, but I would probably fold.
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