Merge - $5+$0.40|<> NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (MP): 1,265.00
BTN posts ante 15.00, SB posts ante 15.00, BB
posts ante 15.00, UTG posts ante 15.00, Hero
posts ante 15.00, CO posts ante 15.00, SB posts SB 150.00, BB
posts BB 300.00
Pre Flop: (pot: 540.00) Hero
, Hero raises to 1,250.00 and is all-in
My initial reaction in this spot was that this was a negative value shove, but I went ahead and did it any way. Afterwards I did some math and it turns out that it may not be all that bad of a shove at all. I just want to make sure that what I am doing is correct to figure out the value.
Right now I have 13.3 EV, with 17.4 if the biggest stack calls and I win, 13.3/17.4= ~.76 so I need to win about 76% of the time. If I everyone calls with about an 11% range then I will win about 56% of the time PF and 49% post. 44x.49=21.56. 21.56+56 = 77.56. According to this it would be correct to shove. Two things:
A) This is the correct way to come to this conclusion, right?
B) how do you feel about an 11% calling range here? obviously some people are going to be higher and some will be lower but I have no way of knowing exactingly how often they will call.