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 STT Strategy Discussion about the play of single table tournaments.

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 06-27-2012, 09:30 PM #1 centurion   Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 183 99 bubble DON Merge - \$5+\$0.40|<> NL - Holdem - 6 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 BTN: 2,460.00 SB: 3,810.00 BB: 1,647.00 UTG: 3,593.00 Hero (MP): 1,265.00 CO: 2,225.00 BTN posts ante 15.00, SB posts ante 15.00, BB posts ante 15.00, UTG posts ante 15.00, Hero posts ante 15.00, CO posts ante 15.00, SB posts SB 150.00, BB posts BB 300.00 Pre Flop: (pot: 540.00) Hero has 9 9 fold, Hero raises to 1,250.00 and is all-in, My initial reaction in this spot was that this was a negative value shove, but I went ahead and did it any way. Afterwards I did some math and it turns out that it may not be all that bad of a shove at all. I just want to make sure that what I am doing is correct to figure out the value. Right now I have 13.3 EV, with 17.4 if the biggest stack calls and I win, 13.3/17.4= ~.76 so I need to win about 76% of the time. If I everyone calls with about an 11% range then I will win about 56% of the time PF and 49% post. 44x.49=21.56. 21.56+56 = 77.56. According to this it would be correct to shove. Two things: A) This is the correct way to come to this conclusion, right? B) how do you feel about an 11% calling range here? obviously some people are going to be higher and some will be lower but I have no way of knowing exactingly how often they will call.
 06-28-2012, 07:54 AM #2 old hand   Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 1,471 Re: 99 bubble DON To do it completely correctly you'll need to take into account situations with multiple callers and adjust each individual's calling ranges. For instance SB is going to have a much wider calling range than CO or BTN. The only way to get an exact numerical solution is to either solve an equation with like 20 variables or plug the hand into a software like SNG Wizard where it essentially allows you to adjust your opponent's ranges and does all of the math for you. Your method is a pretty good way to eyeball your push equity though. As for the 11% range I'd say SB definitely is going to be around 11%, but the rest of the table is significantly tighter. BB is probably somewhere around 3-5% and CO/BTN are going to be like JJ+,AK, maybe slightly wider. This is an extremely standard push with 99.

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