Quote:
Originally Posted by au4all
If you have J9, and someone else has J2, the flop is going to be jack high way less 7% of the time. It's going to be 9 high way less than 7% of the time.
Just over 13% of the time will you see your very optimistic scenario.
couple this with the fact that most people fold to limp cbets over 55% of the time and even more to turn barrels because they don't feel comitted to the hand .
And now compare this when you minraise and the SB shoves 15% of the time, the BB shoves 20% and flats another 40% and then only folds on the flop to a cbet 35% of the time because stacks are short enough that he can jam all draws and every top pair and second pair and float with a lot of other stuff because to put continued pressure you have to jam turn which you can't do most of the time. And he also refuses to fold 3rd pair because he's put so much money in the pot and feels emotionally invested. When you add all these factors, it's easy to see why limping is the best strat.