hi
can anyone tell me how is variance in 6max hypers compared to turbos?
and also, how does it compare to hyper hu and spin and goes? my guess is it should be bigger than in both hu/spins..but something tells me i'm wrong... appreciate any info..
also how about roi, lets say at $7 @ stars ? for average player...
thanks

Variance is huge in 6-max hypers, downswings depend on your ROI but I'd always expect them and have 100-200 BI BRM.

You can use this calc: http://pokerdope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/

ROI depends on your skill and table count, most regs have around 1-3 %, the best ones in $7 around 4-6 % (Sharkscope Lacr1mosa, chimera252, weydahl, ruune666, polarizing-1, phily88 to get an idea).
A lot of your profit comes from RB tho, supernova is easily achievable with $7s only.

Pretty crazy compared to turbos and believe people when they talk about 100+BI BRM.
Playing with less than 25BB effective stacks makes it involve a lot of flipping and all-in pre rather early on.

Fixed your post

So helpful acb lol.
OP the average player is losing obviously, so I assume that's not what you meant?
The games are beatable obv, but the guys Moldran listed are at the top of the low stakes leaderboards, they are the very best players in the games at these stakes so probably not a good reference point for the average player.

I generally hold 2/300 x my typical av bi as a rule. I have had months where I have run 200 BI below ev so if you're new to the structure and you bring a 100 BI BR I can say it is pretty likely you will go broke.
I can tell you personally the swings can be BRUTAL.

alright thanks for answers.
i'm surprised that they are beat fro 7% by someone that is a lot.

any expercience how do they compare with hu hypers and spin and goes ?

i have one othe rquestion and dont want to create another thread, are turbo 18mans much higher variacne then turbo 6max ones ? i read that they are lower but it obv doesnt make sense to me because the 6max ones you cash more-maybe it has somethign to do with more even 10/20/30/40 pay out structure tho ??
thanks

2 points to make:
1.
7% is a lot, but you have to keep in mind the guys winning by that margin would likely be winners at 10 x that stake.
Why wouldn't they play higher I hear you say.
Depends on life circumstances in many cases.
I hear Chimera only plays poker to fund his Duvel & momo habbit, Degen. Discount him.

Lac for example has a family to support and lives in low cost Thailand, solid low variance money from $7/15 which requires a much smaller BR is better for his life than the crazy variance of a 0% roi @$100 $20,000 downswing etc.

Which brings me onto my 2nd point - warning, an unwelcome truth follows...

A lot of guys are always asking about variance of various formats.
Seems like a fair enough question, but the truth is, the variance of ANY FORMAT is so directly related to your edge in the games, that to a player who needs to ask about variance in different formats, the variance of all of them will likely be very high.

Harsh but true I'm afraid.
Pick a format by assessing personal stengths, attainable edge & game liquidity, then work like a son of a gun to become the best possible player you can ever be at that format, and don't sweat the variance.

The dream of variance free poker just does not exist my friend, you just gotta make the best of what does

I suspect the OP is using the term 'variance' in the very loose sense many poker players use and really per game the variance of STTs is nearly completely accounted for by the payout structure and just a little from your finish distribution, and rake. Note: I emphasize this is the per game variance.

Actually in these you want your variance to go up because the higher your roi the higher the variance per game you are seeing (well if your roi edge rises above about 50%, phew!, the variance will then start to fall but who has a 50+% in STTs . It is zero for both 0% roi and when always 1st,or always 2nd and about max somewhere near the 50% mark).

You can get the variance of many games by multiplying up the number of games played by the variance for one. Now as Hypers are fast you probably play more per hour so your variance per hour will go up.

Often when asking about this subject they want to know how likely bad runs are and so you can visit the pokerdope variance calc but remember to adjust for the number of games you will be playing of each type.

Also, if you want the chances of downswings I did some calcs a while back and I graphed the chances for 6 player games (it doesn't matter if turbo, normal, or hyper) and they can be found via the links on this page:
http://www.deucescracked.com/blogs/b...ability-Graphs

Nice post.
It's funny in sng's when we talk about variance we all know what we mean, but actually it's not variance, as you point out, 9/10 "variance" conversations are about the chance of a downswing.
As your very nice linked graphs show, the higher your win rate, the smaller the chance of significant downswings.
I think that's most of what people really want to know about on the topic, although it is very hard to convince people that winning players still have downswings of decent sizes over decent samples, it's the human brain is poorly wired when it comes to probability.

what is the highest possible ROI% at 60 hypers 6max? Is 4% possible?

290% minus rake

With decent game selection the very BEST few players might - MIGHT do this.

You won't though.
You're probably a good player, but if you are asking what is possible in a format, then you lack the expertise required to achieve the top end of possible.
No insult, but If I ask if 5bb/100 is possible in NL1k, the answer is kind of irrelevant to me, because even if it was possible I would not be in the elite of elite players capable of it if I was asking that question.

I have a related question (not to hijack your thread). I realize downswings will be frequent and long at hypers. I'm fairly new to the format and have been running hot at the beginning...until my last session I busted the last 13 hyper in a row. Is that somewhat normal to go that many games without a cash? Seems like you could cash 1 in 13 just by blindly shoving every hand...

Hypers are a crapshoot short term, even in the long term the variance is insane.

Loosing 13 hypers in a row is nothing.

Good to know. I felt pretty beat up about it not knowing if it's terrible or totally standard...

You can look up finishing distributions of players of comparable skill and calculate how likely some particular losing streak is within a certain sample, it's basic math and ppl wrote free accesible programs for it as well. But it's just for interest or maybe if it helps you coping with losing streaks psychologically then it's not bad either.

But apart from that: Doesn't matter how the cards fall. All you can really do is trying to make the best decision in every single hand. That involves a lot of studying, as well as getting into quick routines for spots of low significance to have more time for the valuable ones and being able to solve these for max. value.
GL

Hello . Is ev winnings graph in HEM2 accurate ? Should i even care about it after 3k games ?

The ev adjusted graph will generally be a much better indicator of your 'edge' but over small samples you can get odd results. I don't know for sure but I suspect the adjusted roi will have about a quarter of the variance of the unadjusted, you would need to play about 4 times as many games to gain the same level of confidence from the unadjusted.

Any amount of data from games is valuable it is just that you have to expect less accuracy in smaller samples. The 'bell-curve' gets sharper and taller the more games involved, in fact for every 4 times the amount of games the width of confidence interval effectively halves.

For 3k games of 6max the 90% confidence Interval will be about roi% +/-4%. After playing 3k x 4 = 12k games it would be +/- 2%, you would have to play 12k x 4 = 48k to get +/- 1%. Obviously other stuff can change while you build up a big sample, if you use the adjusted roi the confidence interval will be about half of those I just mentioned.

As far as the two lines go in the long run ie, when viewing enough games on a graph, they will both have the same mean and so have the same slope. It is just that the unadjusted graph will jiggle about more sometimes above, sometimes below this slope. The adjusted result line will appear smoother.

A couple times while reading this thread i kept seeing the recurring thought of "game selection". Can somebody please explain this to me? I assume it means finding games with fish, but how does one do this? How can i increase my edge by properly using game selection? Like how do i physically go about this process? Do i need to buy a software? I frequently play these hypers and have gotten mediocre success but am not sure how to improve further.

You dont need a software, though there are some and they can be really helpfull especially if you play a lot of tables.

Use color-codes to mark the players, if you play a certain game/stake long enough you will have a lot of marked players and can see whether the games are easy or though.

I'm $100 bellow EV in 800 games ($1.5 6m hyper). Buuuuut 800 games means nothing hahha

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