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$5 Party - 88 paired board

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07-12-2016 , 07:09 AM

CZECHSHARK

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 506

Think pre is std. Post I think it should be call, but what would you do if the flop was f.e. J24r ? I would raise in order lots of scare cards can come on turn and I don't want to be stuck in a tricky spot...
No reads

Party, $5 Buy-in (20/40 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37390363

UTG: 2,060 (51.5 bb)
CO: 2,300 (57.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): 2,000 (50 bb)
SB: 1,960 (49 bb)
BB: 1,740 (43.5 bb)
MP: 1,940 (48.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8

UTG folds, MP raises to 80, CO folds, Hero calls 80, 2 folds

Flop: (220) J

(2 players)
MP bets 70, Hero raises to 195, MP calls 125

Turn: (610) Q

(2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

River: (610) T

(2 players)
MP bets 305, Hero folds

Spoiler:

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07-12-2016 , 01:57 PM

magninioh

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 250

If you decide to raise flop, which I think is fine, he will probably fold anything worse than your hand, and only call with better.

But, I think you raised to little. He will still call with two overcards. Raise like 350 is better.

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07-12-2016 , 05:27 PM

freakinbird

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 279

Quote:

Originally Posted by magninioh

These two statements conflict each other. So he'll only call with better - at a certain price. If you're shoving, naturally then he'd only call with better.

I don't think there's a need to raise here for your initial thought process. I understand 'actualizing equity', but raising just seems to get us in bloated pots when they do flat. It's fine to call and fold turn if he two barrel donks.

I'm not opposed to folding pre this early, btw. especially in a $5 against an MP open

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07-12-2016 , 11:09 PM

acbarone

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 4,880

Quote:

Originally Posted by CZECHSHARK

Post I think it should be call, but what would you do if the flop was f.e. J24r ? I would raise in order lots of scare cards can come on turn and I don't want to be stuck in a tricky spot...
No reads

We should raise because

[ ] Scare cards can come
[ ] I don't want to be in tricky spots
[x] Value
[x] Bluff

In this spot, do we expect to bluff a better hand? I doubt it. 99+ is unlikely to fold and Jx certainly isn't going anywhere. Can we get value from worse? Actually...we probably could. Just as I expect a random to get in 99+, they'll treat 44-77 the same. Possibly 3x (although how many 3x combos does he have) and a stubborn AK/AQ.

That said, I still think we shouldn't raise. Flatting is definitely better on this flop and on J42r.

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07-13-2016 , 06:32 AM

Colin252

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 518

It's odd that you worry about bad run outs on J42 but not on jj3, as if a turn Q river T wouldn't have you folding to more action on that board. Doesn't make much sense to me.
Other than the paired board has less combo's of Jx for the villain, your equity v a Jx is the same. Like 7% on jjx and 9% on jxx

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07-15-2016 , 01:13 AM

jpgiro

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 1,442

No way you fold pre here.

As to raising the flop - I go back to the tell of "weird small flop and turn bets in micros either indicate a marginal hand or a strong hand, but more often than not a strong hand." In this case there's a case to be made villain has a fairly narrow range of hands that are really better (Jx, 99+) but all are reasonable hands to lead out from MP. Because of that, I'm ok with just calling the flop here.

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