9max here, villain is random, 3 hands on him.
wondering about my betting amount here, and his river shove?

I think a bigger flop bet like 200-250 would have been better against 2 players with a flush draw up? In any case the turn bet was strange. I think we're mostly up against another ace or a pocket pair or the flush draw. I think you could get more value and protect yourself from the draw by betting more on the turn. I'd go for 450-550ish. Yes he could have trips or 44 but that's less likely.

As played I would most likely fold here. Without a read, and plenty of chips left, it's probably not worth it to risk the trips or flush (flush seems more likely). His jam is curious, make a note and watch for how he plays a scare card next time. A pot that size, he could be going for a bluff but we don't know.

I'm still new here so take it with a grain of salt and let's see what others have to say.

Folding pf is within reason in the early levels as you gain by others clashing it out early (bias against confrontation given value of chips early and payouts). Raising is fine but the more pots you play early the more comfortable you should be post flop as well.

Agree that more on the flop and turn seem best; get value from worse pairs and charge for draws when villains in these games are unlikely to be folding.

As played fold river, not a fantastic price and most apparent draws got there.

Nit itt At least limp.

I agree more on flop. OOP 3 handed w flushdraw. I dont mind keeping the turn smaller. A random at this level Im not gonna give credit for being able to semifbluff this turn or turn missed draws and worse hands into bluff on river. They prob show up with 9x and better aces more often than youd think. So keeping the pot smaller and folding to any signs of agression could be a better line. Especially early in a 9man at what I assume is a pretty soft table.

As played like a fold obv.

Fold PF in early position (its suited maybe call with the blinds so low). No reason to think your ahead at any point vs unknowns... not gonna play a big pot with AJ on that board with the blinds so low. Much easier decision if you know something about the villain. The flush came and there are 2 nines on board... gotta give him credit for the big bet I am folding.

O would open any Axs, if the players behind are mostly fishes.
Postflop wp, calling river is optional if villians are fishes.

Interesting, I would basically do the opposite. I steal a lot more from regs who are nits/supernits because they fold easily (especially early); and when they do aggress, I can happily let go of my marginal holdings. It depends on the type of "fish" we are dealing with but I believe "tight is right" in the early stages especially applies to looser players. I would at the very least stick to A8+ from early, as "fish" are more likely to call down with weaker aces and stick around if they catch something. We don't want to be on the wrong end of that kicker battle.

Maybe if the table isn't fighting back at all I would open Axs from early, but OP specifically said there was at least one random.

Early position, 2nd blind level, no pressure to play marginal spots, big stack still and no - one eliminated. looks like a routine fold pre flop to me.
As it stands its a definite fold on the river.
1. He's got position
2. Showed strength pre flop by calling an EP raiser
3. 2 flat calls on a Axx board
4. Value raise shove on the river

I think you are facing AK, AQ, A9, KhJh+ here. No other hands really fit the bill of only calling on the flop and turn then shoving the river. Put yourself in his shoes a flush draw from yourself is not a double barreling hand on a Axx board so he should rule that out and know he is ahead with AK and possibly AQ and not likely to be outdrawn hence he only calls the turn and doesn't raise.
He could also have a flush as he'd likely call the small bet on the flop with hands like KhTh+ (If he's holding anything lower I'd be shocked) Then its also an easy call for him on the turn. As it stands you put him in a great spot as your bets were too small to force out any draws and he has the opportunity to represent the flush as he is pot committed and you may even read a shove as a bluff in this spot and pay him off, or you fold and he scoops.
A bigger bet on the flop say 250 and then 450-500 on the turn gets him to fold his draws and you'll win those hands. Also you'll know better where you stand if he shoves the river. But can you fold with 3.5-1 odds (worked out by re-sizing the bets and river stacks) to call with AJ on that board? It's marginal. As with those bet sizes his calling range is 9x, AQ, AK and all of which beat you.
Its these type of hands AJ and AT which result in 8th and 9th place finishes. You flop a good hand, barrel away only to find you run into AK or AQ or 2 pair. Avoid marginal play unless you have position.

All that hassle and thinking for a hand like AJs. Avoid the essay above and just fold it pre flop, leave the thinking for working out calling and raising ranges when the blinds are 50/100 or above and the equity gain is worth it.

Anyone consider a small blocker bet of say t250 OTR to be a good idea? Bluff/raising would be very rare at this level.

CO's range looks to be flushes or 9x. Ax would probably x back OTR. I would think 9x would raise turn because of the fd but certainly 9x is in there.

As played fold river.

As for pf, if I'm playing well I fold this pre but if it was my first pretty hand for a few rounds I'd play it so meh, folding pre is best imo.

I don't really like betting flop unless we think A LOT of weaker aces give us 3 streets. We likely get value out of flush draws anyways because they'll usually bluff when checked to. We have a super strong range here and betting with this hand is almost like bluffing. Not in the sense that we aren't getting value now, but in the sense that we're typically going to be in a spot later in the hand where we have to c/f unless we get folds on the flop, and almost all the hands that fold flop are way behind us. We really want villains to continue with hands like KJ/KQ/JT because we can potentially get a street out of them later in the hand with our under-repped ace.

As played I think the turn bet is spew. Sizing is ok to get value from flush draws, but it's a WA/WB spot since the flush only hits 1/5 times and they almost never have 2 pair outs. I think we can get similar value on most rivers while controlling the pot size better and not having to be in a position where we have to get stacks in to see showdown. The only way I think this is OK is if villain is going to call off most river 1/3 pot bets with A2. I'm not sure how I would react to aggression ott, but that's one of the reasons I don't like betting the flop very much.

You should really min raise pre btw. 90 is too big and gives you super low spr's this early in the tourny, especially in MW pots after we cbet oop. No reason to 3x at 50bb imo. I totally disagree with the idea that we should open fold this hand pre. It's way too good.

AJ too good to fold?
- 7 players acting after you
- Are you calling or folding to a 3 bet?
- A 3 bet will have your range crushed unless they are fish.
- A caller ''Should have you crushed'' Anyone calling a UTG+2 raise will most likely be on AK, AQ or a PP. You are behind!
- Are you happy with your kicker on an Axx board. Given that you'll generally be against the above hands.
- Do you want to risk stacking off on the 2nd blind level with a mediocre hand?
- Lack of reads on the table.

On a table of utter morons its a borderline raise.
On an unknown table or facing regs its a clear no brainer 100% muck.
Anyone who raises this hand from this position in this situation needs ridiculously acute post flop know how.
Considering the question at hand given this situation i.e. unsure post flop, then its a fold until you build the post flop skill necessary to incorporate a loose opening hand into your range profitably. Once you face situations like the above and get a good read on the various types of players and their spots post flop and such thinking becomes routine then open with it. Until then treat it like the hand it actually is, speculative at best. Its only A high!

No, it's a great raise on any table where your opponents aren't legends.

Or you lack the post flop skill to make the decisions in the hand he posted as above.
He's got 53.5BB!
With a stack of 30BB or below then yes its a routine raise. That's the whole point really, this early on, lacking table reads and post flop confidence to avoid stacking (Like he nearly did in this hand) just muck it and move on, there will be better spots later on when the equity gain from taking down the blinds or the routine c bet then villain folds will counteract the hands inherent weakness.

So what you're saying is that if we assume that we're worse at poker than our opponents we should be folding. I definitely agree, but I'd much rather get better at poker than make bad folds.

I don't think it's a bad fold. Just quoting Collin Moshman's book on low blind play in EP:

'Do not usually get involved with any AJ in early position. Limp or raise with AQs'.

I'd follow that at these stakes. AJs is solid but not premium and I would prefer to only get involved with premium hands at these stakes and value bet them hard.

Limp with AQs lmao

That goes to show you how dumb that statement is

I bet you wouldn't catch Moshman making this fold today. When he wrote that book you had a 10% edge just by being ok at bubble play. You could edge pass a lot more because of how much money you make in the late game. That doesn't happen any more and you should really be opening like 10% minimum in ep imo.

Limp or raise.

If you think about it it's not dumb at all. Early on in a SNG the aim is to let players bust so our chips become worth more and more the longer we survive. One of the ways we don't bust early is by only playing premium hands and folding solid, but non-premium, hands. So AQs becomes effectively a small pocket pair - limp and see a flop, or raise and cbet. Both are fine.

Aside from the fact that Moshman is a winner at high stakes STTs and has a huge database of his own from which he can draw good conclusions about what is the most +ev, the logic behind what he says there is pretty clear to me.

#FaithInMoshman

You don't think there's still a 10% edge from being ok at bubble play in $5 SNGs?

no

Moshmans book is from 2007. Playing blindly from it is the same as trying to fly a rocket to the moon using only Archimedes' principles (I'm exagerrating but you get the point).

imo there's more value in early stages of low/medium stakes sng's now than 4-5 years ago (more likely I didn't see it back then). Bad players are spewing off relatively more then they do in the late stages and even when they spew off during bubble time our edge is smaller. Not to mention hero has to tiptoe around their spews because of bigger ICM issues.

In the mean time most regs are just sticking to their nitty early stage game plan leaving value on the table by folding playable/profitable hands. Obviously there's ICM to consider early on as well but good post flop play can get you a lot of value early on at relatively small risk.

I see so many average/bad regs at stakes up to $30 who basically sit out the first couple of levels and simply rely on their push/shove game later on. Just because it's profitable doesn't mean it's optimal.

Sorry for the derail

OP, fold river.