Hey, I'm wondering what people think the correct play is here.

Villain over 32 hands: 27/19/1.5/10

Thanks

PokerStars Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2017/05/10 14:07:39 CET [2017/05/10 8:07:39 ET]

Table '1909038190 1' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: claverin 1 (1234 in chips)
Seat 2: juanlusiete (1990 in chips)
Seat 3: javilarry83 (1323 in chips)
Seat 4: NewJackCity0 (2457 in chips)
Seat 5: montador11 (1318 in chips)
Seat 6: alcaraz98 (678 in chips)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to NewJackCity0 [Jc Js]
javilarry83: folds
NewJackCity0: raises 90 to 140
montador11: raises 391 to 531
alcaraz98: folds
claverin 1: folds
juanlusiete: folds
NewJackCity0: ?

I would range him as AK, AQ, TT+

Plug that into the equity calculator you have just under 50 % equity so I would reshove. You would be coolered some times but thats life.

Thanks, I know villlain's stats aren't particularly tight but given the way he had been playing, the small sample and my experience against tag opponents at this level I'm slow to include AQ.

I had him on AK, QQ+ which I know is an incredibly tight 3bet range at this stage of the sng but I think the sizing is also indicative of value. Is there anything to be said for flatting if we assign villain AK, TT+?

I don't think flatting is a good option, you put yourself in an awkward position if a Q, K or A hits the flop. Then u basically have to fold. And if a low flop comes u might miss value, he then might fold his AK if you shove.

So I don't think flatting is a good option here, I would also reshove as commented earlier.

Is that 10% 3b over 32 hands? It's a jam then. (For math reference to interpret small sample sizes see bayesian estimators in poker) I feel population makes smaller 3b IP with KK+ as well so would weight that <100% when constructing his range. All the estimations about the 3b range itt are too tight imo.

I looked up bayesian estimators in poker. It looks like it could be very useful. I'l definitely do some more reading. I did actually end up flatting but I'm satisfied this is a shove now. Thanks for the replies.